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International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper discusses several features of the Slovene economy that may explain the weak relationship between credit and domestic demand growth. It reviews credit growth developments in Slovenia and in selected European Union new member states, and compares their experiences with that of noncore euro area countries, including Ireland, Greece, Portugal, and Spain, before their adoption of the euro. Findings on the relationships between credit and domestic demand based on simple correlation and regression analyses are also presented.
International Monetary Fund
This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that Slovenia’s real GDP growth accelerated to 4½ percent in 2004 driven by a large positive swing in the contribution of net foreign demand, while domestic demand growth maintained momentum. Private consumption strengthened, though to a lesser extent than expected owing to an apparent increase in the propensity to save. Economic growth is expected to moderate to 4 percent in 2005, but would still be above estimates of potential. Domestic demand is expected to ease, owing to a further slowdown of inventory accumulation.
Susan M Schadler

Abstract

Eight central and eastern European countries--the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovak Republic, and Slovenia--officially joined the European Union (EU) in May 2004. This auspicious milestone marked the beginning of the next major step for these countries in their move toward full integration with the EU-adoption of the euro. Seeking to consider the opportunities and challenges of euro adoption, the papers in this volume--by a noted group of country officials, academics, representatives of international institutions, and market participants-offer insight on the various dimensions of euro adoption in these eight new EU members--how they should prepare, whether an early move is optimal, and what pitfalls may occur along the way.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Voici plusieurs décennies que la nécessité d'une stratégie moderne de lutte contre le blanchiment de capitaux a été largement admise au niveau international. Le fait de priver les éléments criminels du produit de leurs crimes a été considéré de plus en plus comme un outil important pour lutter contre le trafic de stupéfiants et, plus récemment, comme un élément essentiel de la lutte contre le crime organisé, la corruption et le financement du terrorisme, ainsi que de la préservation de l'intégrité des marchés de capitaux. Les toutes premières cellules de renseignements financiers (CRF) ont été créées au début des années 90 en réponse à la nécessité pour les pays de disposer d'un organisme central pour la réception l'analyse et la diffusion d'informations financières en vue de lutter contre le blanchiment de capitaux. Au cours de la période qui a suivi, le nombre de CRF a continué d'augmenter : on en comptait 84 en 2003. Ce manuel répond aux besoins d'informations sur les CRF. Les informations fournies incluent le cas échéant des renvois aux normes pertinentes du GAFI.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

A partir de la última década, se comenzó a reconocer a nivel internacional la necesidad de adoptar una estrategia moderna para la prevención del lavado de activos. Privar a los criminales del producto de su actividad delictiva se está convirtiendo, en forma creciente, en un instrumento importante para combatir el comercio ilegítimo de estupefacientes y, más recientemente, en un elemento esencial de la lucha contra la delincuencia organizada, la corrupción y el financiamiento del terrorismo, y una forma de mantener la integridad de los mercados financieros. Las primeras unidades de inteligencia financiera (UIF) se crearon a comienzos de los años noventa como respuesta a la necesidad de los países de contar con un organismo central para recibir, analizar y divulgar información financiera con el fin de combatir el lavado de dinero. En el período subsiguiente, la cantidad de unidades de inteligencia financiera siguió aumentando hasta llegar a 84 en 2003. Este manual constituye una respuesta a la necesidad de información sobre las unidades de inteligencia financiera. En los casos pertinentes, se hace referencia a las normas correspondientes del Grupo de Acción Financiera Internacional (GAFI).

Ms. Katerina Smídková
and
Mr. Ales Bulir
Estimation and simulation of sustainable real exchange rates in some of the new EU accession countries point to potential difficulties in sustaining the ERM2 regime if entered too soon and with weak policies. According to the estimates, the Czech, Hungarian, and Polish currencies were overvalued in 2003. Simulations, conditional on large-model macroeconomic projections, suggest that under current policies those currencies would be unlikely to stay within the ERM2 stability corridor during 2004-10. In-sample simulations for Greece, Portugal, and Spain indicate both a much smaller misalignment of national currencies prior to ERM2, and a more stable path of real exchange rates over the medium term than can be expected for the new accession countries.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Over the past decade and beyond, the need for a modern anti-money-laundering strategy has become widely accepted internationally. Depriving criminal elements of the proceeds of their crimes has increasingly been seen as an important tool to combat drug trafficking and, more recently, as a critical element in fighting organized crime, corruption, and the financing of terrorism, and maintaining the integrity of financial markets. The first few financial intelligence units (FIUs) were established in the early 1990s in response to the need for countries to have a central agency to receive, analyze, and disseminate financial information to combat money laundering. Over the ensuing period, the number of FIUs has continued to increase, reaching 84 in 2003. This handbook responds to the need for information on FIUs. It provides references to the appropriate Financial ActionTask Force (FATF) standards wherever appropriate.

International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes current developments and outlook for inflation in the Czech Republic. Inflation in the Czech Republic has fallen substantially since peaking in the double digits in 1998. The crisis-led depreciation of the koruna in mid-1997 pushed year-over-year inflation to more than 13 percent. The paper presents the IMF staff analysis that shows that without interest rate increases, inflation is likely to begin to rise above the midpoint of the Czech National Bank’s target in mid-2005. The paper also analyzes the Czech labor market in a cross-country perspective.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper for Romania reports that the practice of nonpayment and arrears accumulation has been widespread in Romania. Managers of enterprises that remain in the pipeline for privatization for long periods of time have little incentive to reduce arrears. The state contributed to growth of arrears by accepting nonmonetary tax and utility payments, using tax offsets in procurement, and tolerating payment arrears. These practices have been prevalent at all levels of state and local government, as well as state utility companies.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Over the past decade and beyond, the need for a modern anti-money-laundering strategy has become widely accepted internationally. Depriving criminal elements of the proceeds of their crimes has increasingly been seen as an important tool to combat drug trafficking and, more recently, as a critical element in fighting organized crime, corruption, and the financing of terrorism, and maintaining the integrity of financial markets. The first few financial intelligence units (FIUs) were established in the early 1990s in response to the need for countries to have a central agency to receive, analyze, and disseminate financial information to combat money laundering. Over the ensuing period, the number of FIUs has continued to increase, reaching 84 in 2003. This handbook responds to the need for information on FIUs. It provides references to the appropriate Financial ActionTask Force (FATF) standards wherever appropriate.