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Michal Andrle
,
Vladimír Tomšík
, and
Mr. Jan Vlcek
The paper seeks to identify strategies of commercial banks in response to higher capital requirements of Basel III reform and its phase-in. It focuses on a sample of nine EU emerging market countries and picks up 5 largest banks in each country assessing their response. The paper finds that all banking sectors raised CAR ratios mainly through retained earnings. In countries where the banking sector struggled with profitability, banks have resorted to issuance of new equity or shrunk the size of their balance sheets to meet the higher capital-adequacy requirements. Worries echoed at the early stage of Basel III compilation, namely that commercial banks would shrink their balance sheet by reducing their lending to meet stricter capital requirements, did materialize only in banks struggling with profitability.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Assistance report makes recommendations regarding introduction of an effective framework for contingency planning and crisis management, including bank resolution and deposit guarantees, in Slovenia. It is recommended that a communication plan and strategy be developed, both within the Bank of Slovenia and at the national level, to speak with one voice during financial crises. The members of Co-ordination Group/Financial Stability Board (CG/FSB) must harmonize their efforts to carefully coordinate information, provide consistent communication to the public, and ensure that they use the same facts and assumptions. Whenever a crisis appears forthcoming, CG/FSB members should plan to deliver a media statement providing information in a constructive manner to reassure the public.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses recent economic developments, outlook, and risks in Slovenia. Although strong demand in trading partners and large European Union structural fund transfers buoyed growth in 2014–15, the outlook is less reassuring. The short-term outlook is broadly balanced, while medium-term prospects are subject to downside risks. Significant structural reforms are needed to realize Slovenia’s growth potential, but political tensions and coalition discussions may affect their pace and ambition. Slovenia needs to avoid complacency; with more ambitious reforms, growth can be faster and more sustainable. Concrete measures need to be taken to address binding constraints on growth and reduce financial and fiscal vulnerabilities.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper focuses on the following key issues of the Slovenian economy: export competitiveness, corporate financial health and investment, European Central Bank (ECB) quantitative easing, and financial sector development issues and prospects. Slovenia’s exports have been the main contributor to GDP growth in recent years. In particular, by 2015 exports of goods and services had increased by 20 percentage points of GDP compared to their postcrisis low in 2009. Preceding the global economic slump in 2008, bank credit in Slovenia fueled corporate investment. The past few years have witnessed substantial monetary easing by the ECB. With inflation running well below target, the ECB has been pursuing unconventional monetary policy-easing actions.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This report provides to the Ministry of Finance a review of the current mass valuation appraisal system, and further policy directions on improved tax design for a property tax that would not invite Constitutional challenge, especially in respect of tax base definition, tax rate policy, and tax relief. These measures combined would broaden the base with less rate discrimination. The mission identified the following key structural problems as to the design of the real property tax and suggested corrective steps with the view to improving collections from property taxes across Slovenia
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Assistance Report assesses the bank resolution framework and deposit guarantee system in Slovenia. There are three necessary requirements for effective bank resolution: (1) a special bank resolution regime, (2) advance preparation for bank intervention and resolution, and (3) an adequately funded Deposit Guarantee Scheme (DGS). Slovenia’s banking law provides for the first, while the recommendation to create a Resolution Unit within Bank of Slovenia has been adopted. The extant DGS, however, is an ex post funded scheme that does not fulfill the third criteria. Slovenia must implement the European Union Deposit Guarantee Scheme Directive into national law, which calls for an ex ante funded DGS.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This paper discusses key findings and recommendations of the Technical Assistance report on establishing a spending review process in Slovenia. Slovenia’s fragile fiscal situation requires further consolidation to ensure that the upward trajectory of public debt does not threaten long-term fiscal sustainability. Spending in the education sector is the fourth-highest spending level. Spending pressures also need to be explicitly identified, quantified, and included in the spending review to better inform the government’s decision making process. There is also a need to update existing performance information associated with government expenditure programs to ensure that more meaningful information focused on achieving desired outcomes is developed to better inform future reviews.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines inflation dynamics in Bulgaria from January 2012 to February 2015 and highlights some stylized facts about inflation in the country. January 2012 to February 2015 is the most relevant period for identifying factors contributing to recent deflation in Bulgaria, as well as their relative importance. Regression analysis suggests that during this period the inward spillover of low inflationary pressure from the European Union to Bulgaria has been the most significant factor, which was further exacerbated by consecutive electricity price cuts in 2013 and fast-falling global commodity prices, especially since late 2014.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Slovenia is recovering from a deep crisis. Growth is estimated to have reached about 2.6 percent in 2014, supported by strong exports and EU-funded public investment. The financial sector has stabilized following recapitalization of the major banks by the state. Government bonds yields have declined markedly. Growth is projected at about 1.9 and 1.7 percent in 2015 and 2016, respectively, with potential growth well below precrisis levels. Executive Directors welcomed the fact that Slovenia’s economy is recovering and commended the authorities for their efforts to mend the banking system, facilitate corporate debt restructuring, and consolidate the public finances.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines social spending reform and fiscal savings in Slovenia. Rising expenditure has been at the root of Slovenia’s fiscal deterioration since the onset of the crisis. The paper explores reform options to reduce Slovenia’s social spending over the medium and long term. It discusses key features of the pension system, and analyzes the evolution of pension spending in the absence of reforms. The paper also examines the health and education spending and provides a framework to assess their efficiency relative to other countries.