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Europe > Slovenia, Republic of

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Implications of EMU for Exchange Rate Policy in Central and Eastern Europe
Mr. George Kopits
In view of the requirements of Stage 2 of European Monetary Union (EMU) for accession to the European Union, this paper examines the desirability for, and the ability of, the lead candidates in Central and Eastern Europe to participate in the new exchange rate mechanism (ERM2) and eventually in EMU. For most of these countries the benefits are likely to outweigh the cost of participation. After successfully meeting the basic conditions (wage flexibility, prudent fiscal and monetary stance, financial system soundness) for ERM2, each candidate should be able to shadow the euro, with sufficient flexibility around the central rate, prior to formal participation. The paper concludes with a discussion of two policy dilemmas.
Keywords:
WP; nominal rate; lead accession countries; managed float; stabilization program; crawling peg; current account; risk premium; international monetary arrangements; transition economies; hard currency; Exchange rates; Exchange rate arrangements; Short term interest rates; Exchange rate policy; Currencies; Central and Eastern Europe; Southeast Asia; Asia and Pacific; Eastern Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Croatia: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix analyzes developments in Croatia’s banking sector since independence in 1991, focusing on the effects of independence, war, transition, and the bank rehabilitation process. Changes in market structure, concentration, and ownership, as well as financial performance are highlighted. The paper reviews the current legal environment governing banking operations and improvements needed to strengthen the legislative framework. Some forward-looking conclusions are presented. The paper also examines selected aspects of Croatia’s export performance.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Croatia; bank; wage; expenditure arrears; share; replacement rate; price growth; payment obligation; benefits-to-GDP ratio; Pension spending; Pensions; Total expenditures; Exports; Commercial banks; Eastern Europe; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper examines the progress of Slovenia by focusing on four interrelated topics that are critically important to the evolution of the transition process and provides insights into the work that lies ahead. The paper concludes that the voucher-based privatization process has failed to truly transform the ownership structure of socially owned enterprises. The paper also investigates the inflation process in Slovenia through an empirical examination of some commonly used determinants of inflation in transition economies.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Slovenia; nominal exchange rate; ULC REER; RPI inflation; inflation dynamics; EU Accession Strategy of the Republic of Slovenia; EU membership possibility; share price; EU level; Inflation; Privatization; Corporate governance; Mutual funds; Real effective exchange rates; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Western Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Slovenia: Recent Economic Developments
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews economic developments in the Republic of Slovenia during 1990–97. Output began to recover in 1993, and by 1996, Slovenia’s GDP was back to its pre-independence level. Domestic demand was the main driving force, while the growth of exports fluctuated in line with the business cycle in Western Europe and changes in competitiveness. A strong external contribution brought the GDP growth rate to a peak of 5.3 percent in 1994 but it subsequently slowed, reaching 3.1 percent in 1996. GDP growth picked up again in 1997.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; interest rate; foreign currency; exchange rate; commercial bank; U.S. dollar; deutsche mark; Wages; Inflation; Labor markets; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Post Stabilization Inflation Dynamics in Slovenia
Mr. Kevin Ross
This paper investigates the inflation process in Slovenia through an examination of some commonly used determinants of inflation in transition economies. Granger causality tests and an analysis of unrestricted VAR models suggest a strong linkage between both growth in broader monetary aggregates and changes in the tolar–deutsche mark exchange rate on retail price inflation. While the growth in wages affects inflation, it appears that both changes in the exchange rate and growth in monetary aggregates provide the initial impulse. A discussion of the present money–exchange rate policy framework and its influence on inflation is also provided.
Keywords:
WP; RPI inflation; nominal exchange rate; exchange rate; retail price index; Inflation inertia; unrestricted VARs; monetary policy; inflation dynamics; inflation block; inflation process; inflation transmission process; inflation growth; Inflation; Wages; Exchange rates; Monetary aggregates; Monetary base; Western Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Slovenia: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Slovenia; enterprise; enterprise sector; retail price index; Slovenia's share; profit-making company; share of debt; real value; tolar deposit; long-term debt; Slovenia's share of debt; business service; health establishment; batik of Slovenia; Consumption; Pension spending; Imports; Transportation
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Slovenia: Recent Economic Developments
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews economic developments in Slovenia during 1990–96. Slovenia experienced its first positive real GDP growth in 1993. Real GDP grew by 1.3 percent. This modest recovery began under the impetus of buoyant domestic demand, which grew by 8¼ percent; real foreign demand contracted by 6½ percent owing to a recession in Western markets. Despite the growth in real aggregate demand by more than 2 percent, the output response was dampened as domestic demand growth spilled primarily into a boom in consumer goods imports.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; gross domestic product; exchange rate; investment funds; foreign exchange; rate of return; aggregate demand; Wages; Exchange rates; Income; Inflation; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies
Lionel Halpern
and
Mr. Charles Wyplosz
A stylized fact of the transition process is an early profound exchange rate depreciation followed by continuing real appreciation. Absent historical reference points, it is difficult to judge whether the real appreciation is threatening competitiveness. This paper interprets the stylized facts and offers estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate based on an international comparison of dollar wages and on a study of the dynamics of real exchange rates in several transition economies. The results suggest that the process of real appreciation is a combination of a return to equilibrium following the early overshooting and equilibrium appreciation.
Keywords:
WP; nominal exchange rate; rate of exchange; managed float; dollar wage; rate depreciation; rate appreciation; exchange rate regime; equilibrium exchange rates; undervalued exchange rate; inflation rate; Real exchange rates; Exchange rates; Wages; Inflation; Current account; Africa; Central and Eastern Europe; Asia and Pacific; Southeast Asia; Western Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Recent Economic Developments
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews economic developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina during 1990–95. It describes the monetary arrangements that have evolved in the Federation and Republika Srpska, and summarizes the financial developments. The paper provides an overview of balance-of-payments developments and the external financing requirements associated with the authorities’ priority reconstruction program. It describes the exchange rate and trade systems of the two Entities. An assessment of macroeconomic statistics in Bosnia and Herzegovina and a summary of IMF technical assistance activities are also provided.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deutsche mark; foreign exchange; income tax; federal government; national bank; direct tax; banking sector; Currencies; Income; Personal income; Commercial banks; Western Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Moderate Inflation in Poland: A Real Story
Mr. Thierry Pujol
and
Mr. Mark E Griffiths
Why is moving from moderate to low inflation almost always slow or costly? This paper answers this question, based on the Polish experience. First, reflecting the transition to a market economy, Polish inflation has been marked by significant changes in relative prices. Second, as wage and price indexation takes root, the inflationary effect of shocks to relative prices is magnified. Third, lagging structural reform, including the failure to extend hard budget constraints to all sectors of the economy, makes monetary policy less effective. Reduced money supply growth with structural reform offers the best prospect for moving to low inflation.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; monetary policy; price level; broad money; loss-making firm; restructuring process; utility company; inflation rate; consumer price; cost of living index; marginal product of labor; Inflation; Price adjustments; Monetary tightening; Consumer price indexes; Exchange rates; Eastern Europe