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Uroš Herman and Tobias Krahnke
In this paper, we investigate whether a firm’s composition of foreign liabilities matters for their resilience during economic turmoil and examine which characteristics determine a firm’s foreign capital structure. Using firm-level data, we corroborate previous findings from the (international) macroeconomic literature that the composition of foreign liabilities matters for a country’s susceptibility to external shocks. We find that firms with a positive equity share in their foreign liabilities were less affected by the global financial crisis and also less likely to default in the aftermath of the crisis. In addition, we show that larger, more open, and more productive firms tend to have a higher equity share in total foreign liabilities.
José Abad and Antonio Garcia Pascual
Following the COVID shock, supervisors encouraged banks to use capital buffers to support the recovery. However, banks have been reluctant to do so. Provided the market expects a bank to rebuild its buffers, any draw-down will open up a capital shortfall that will weigh on its share price. Therefore, a bank will only decide to use its buffers if the value creation from a larger loan book offsets the costs associated with a capital shortfall. Using market expectations, we calibrate a framework for assessing the usability of buffers. Our results suggest that the cases in which the use of buffers make economic sense are rare in practice.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The pandemic is inflicting much suffering, which has been met with swift, substantial, and well-coordinated policy responses. The anti-crisis measures have helped preserve jobs, provide liquidity to companies and income support to the vulnerable groups. They averted a larger decline in output and kept unemployment under control. After contracting by 5.5 percent in 2020, real GDP is projected to grow by 3.9 percent in 2021 and 4.5 percent in 2022, as vaccinations help achieve herd immunity. However, risks to the outlook are large and tilted to the downside, given the epidemiological situation.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper argues that revenue-neutral tax rebalancing would help Slovenia address long-term fiscal and growth challenges. The present tax-benefit system is supportive of distributional fairness in Slovenia; however, it is argued that tax reform can help bring stronger employment and productivity growth and enhanced resilience to the challenges of population ageing. The paper lays out the case for tax reform in view of long-run fiscal and growth challenges and it also reviews the current tax system and its weaknesses in comparison with international best practices. The paper also sets out tax reform options and uses a model simulation to illustrate the medium- to long-term fiscal and growth impact. The analysis on the tax rebalancing impact suggests that it can permanently and significantly increase potential output in Slovenia. The simulations indicate that a revenue-neutral tax rebalancing has positive fiscal and growth benefits over time.