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Asia and Pacific > Singapore

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
housing affordability; D. policy option; savings fund; modernizing judicial review; impulse response; Housing; Housing prices; Pension spending; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Economic Consequences of Social Unrest: Evidence from Initial Public Offerings
Mr. Philip Barrett, Thomas J. Boulton, and Terry D. Nixon
Prior research attributes negative stock market performance following episodes of social unrest to elevated uncertainty. However, social unrest does not solely increase uncertainty, but separately acts to decrease investor sentiment. To determine which effect dominates, we study initial public offering (IPO) underpricing, which responds differently to changes to uncertainty and investor sentiment. Consistent with the notion that social unrest dampens investor sentiment, we find robust evidence that IPO first-day returns are lower during times of greater social unrest. Limits to arbitrage intensify the negative relation between social unrest and underpricing. Notably, strong institutional frameworks mitigate the impact of social unrest on underpricing, suggesting that quality institutions weaken the link between investor sentiment and returns.
Keywords:
Initial public offerings; investor sentiment; social unrest; underpricing; evidence from initial public offerings; quality institution; IPO underpricing; IPO price; Initial public offering; Stock markets; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Brunei Darussalam: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Selected Issues
Keywords:
carbon pricing revenue; supply and demand demand shock; government digitalization; stakeholder agency; inflation decomposition; Carbon tax; Greenhouse gas emissions; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Global; Southeast Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Brunei Darussalam: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Brunei Darussalam
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Context and Recent Developments. Brunei’s high vaccination rates have allowed for the removal of COVID-19 restrictions and reopening of borders; however, reduced oil and gas (O&G) production have undermined the recovery. The financial sector remains liquid and well-capitalized. High fuel prices helped strengthen the fiscal and external positions in 2022. Inflation hit a historical high but has recently declined. The 2023 Article IV consultation took place in the context of a volatile O&G market, and a difficult external environment. Key policy challenges include the narrowing fiscal space, the need to shield the economy against O&G price and output volatility, global decarbonization pressures, and ensuring inter-generational equity. The government is committed to diversifying towards a low-carbon economy.
Keywords:
Brunei Darussalam's authorities; authorities' effort; sector production; revenue diversification; government of Brunei; Government finance statistics; External sector statistics; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Annual Update on SDR Trading Operations
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper provides an update on the status of the SDR trading market and operations. For more than three decades, SDRs have exclusively been exchanged for freely usable currencies in transactions by agreement, primarily through the Voluntary Trading Arrangements (VTAs). Since the last annual update, SDR trading has continued to be dominated by SDR sales, although SDR acquisitions have increased significantly. From September 2022 to August 2023, SDR 17.9 billion were sold through the VTA market, of which SDR 8.9 billion were exchanged by 29 participants into currencies and SDR 8.0 billion were sold by the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) and the Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) for liquidity management and to facilitate the investment of SDR contributions. On the purchase side, the volume and number of transactions increased from the previous year as more participants needed to replenish their SDR holdings to cover charges to the IMF, reflecting the rising SDR interest rate. The VTAs continue to have ample capacities to meet the demand for exchange of SDRs into currencies.
Keywords:
SDR trading capacity; SDR sale; SDR department participant; VTA market; IMF-administered trust; SDR trade; Currencies; Liquidity; Trading arrangements; Freely usable currencies; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
ASEAN-5: Further Harnessing the Benefits of Regional Integration amid Fragmentation Risks
Nuri Baek, Kaustubh Chahande, Kodjovi M. Eklou, Mr. Tidiane Kinda, Vatsal Nahata, Umang Rawat, and Ara Stepanyan
The ASEAN-5 region, which comprises Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, has benefited substantially from its integration to the world economy, particularly through trade. Rising risks of geoeconomic fragmentation could reverse some gains reaped from globalization over the past decades. In this context, advancing regional integration among ASEAN-5 members has the potential to enhance the region’s resilience against external headwinds. This paper shows that despite sizeable progress, particularly in regional trade integration, there is room to advance financial integration, which also lags trade integration in ASEAN-5. Empirical findings from the paper illustrate that a higher degree of regional financial integration could generate sizeable output gains for the region. Using firm-level data, the paper highlights that digitalization, an area where the region is thriving, can support regional integration by helping firms better integrate into global value chains, with the benefits being stronger for small and medium sized enterprises. The results also suggest that digitalization can help firms move up the value chain through the production of more sophisticated products, often coined as higher export sophistication.
Keywords:
Trade integration; financial integration; digitalization; fragmentation risks; goods export sophistication; firm level result; firm growth; firm Growth; external finance dependence; Financial sector development; Exports; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Singapore: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Singapore
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that Singapore’s post-pandemic recovery is nearly complete. Strong economic fundamentals and the authorities’ decisive policy responses, including an unprecedented policy stimulus, supported a rapid recovery from the coronavirus disease 2019 shock. Macro policies are appropriately tight to moderate price pressures in 2023. The Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened monetary policy under its unique framework five consecutive times since October 2021, and has paused so far in 2023, given negative imported inflation and projected below-trend growth this year. Should downside risks materialize, Singapore can continue to deploy its ample fiscal buffers to cushion the economic impact, with targeted fiscal support continuing to be the first line of defense. In a downside scenario where high inflation is combined with severe strains in financial markets, the pace of tightening would need to be adjusted to avoid a broadening of financial stability concerns.
Keywords:
service price inflation moderate; property price growth; price pressure; goods price; mas core inflation; Inflation; Loans; Labor markets; Monetary tightening; Commercial banks; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Unveiling the Hidden Impact of Urban Land Rents on Total Factor Productivity
Mr. Bas B. Bakker
This paper addresses the puzzling decline of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) levels in rapidly growing economies, such as Singapore, despite advancements in technology and high GDP per capita growth. The paper proposes that TFP growth is not negative; instead, standard growth decompositions have underestimated TFP growth by overestimating the contribution of capital, failing to account for the substantial part of capital income directed to urban land rents. This leads to an overestimation of changes in capital stock's contribution to growth and thereby an underestimation of TFP growth. A revised decomposition suggests that TFP growth in economies with high land rents and rapid capital stock growth, such as Singapore, has been considerably underestimated: TFP levels have not declined but increased rapidly.
Keywords:
Total Factor Productivity; Economic Growth; Capital Stock; Land Rents; Growth Decomposition; Urban Economics; Population Density; Diminishing Returns to Scale; Technological Progress; Singapore; TFP level; re-estimating TFP; land rent; decline of total factor productivity; Capital income; Stocks; Land prices; Asia and Pacific
Cover FinTech Notes
The Rise of Payment and Contracting Platforms
Mr. Tobias Adrian and Mr. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli
This Note explores the design and governance of platforms to enhance cross-border payments in line with public policy goals. While much innovation in recent years has more narrowly targeted end-user frictions, the vision in this paper is based on the mandate of the IMF, governed by the central banks and finance ministries of 190 member countries. Cross-border payments present the foundation for the global financial system, and its functioning is overseen by the IMF.
Keywords:
cross-border payments; platforms; central bank digital currencies; digital money; foreign exchange; settlement; programmability encryption; cross-border payment; note 2023/005; anatomy of payment; XC platform; platform operator; International reserves; Information and data management; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Some Lessons from Asian E-Money Schemes for the Adoption of Central Bank Digital Currency
Tao Sun and Ryan Rizaldy
This paper synthesizes four lessons from the experiences of six Asian e-money schemes for central banks as they consider adopting central bank digital currency (CBDC): (i) CBDC should embody four attributes: trust, convenience, efficiency, and security; (ii) CBDC service providers can facilitate CBDC adoption through four channels: leveraging digital technology, targeting use cases, developing business models, and complying with legal and regulatory requirements; (iii) central banks could incentivize CBDC service providers to develop these four channels when considering CBDC adoption; and (iv) central banks may be able to establish data-sharing arrangements that preserve privacy while leaving room for CBDC service providers to explore the economic value of data.
Keywords:
E-money; central bank digital currency; service providers; e-money adoption; e-money scheme; e-money ecosystem; e-money development; e-money PSP; e-money transaction; Digital currencies; Central Bank digital currencies; Digital financial services; Social networks; Asia and Pacific; Southeast Asia