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Serhan Cevik
and
Yueshu Zhao
European electricity markets are in the midst of unprecedented changes—caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the rise of renewable sources of energy. Using high-frequency data, this paper investigates volatility spillovers across 24 countries in the European Union (EU) during the period 2014–2024 to provide a better understanding of the transmission of risks in an international context. We develop both a static and a dynamic assessment of spillover effects and directional decomposition between individual countries. Our main findings show that about 73 percent of the forecast error variation is explained by cross-variance shares, which means only 27 percent can be attributed to shocks within each country. In other words, cross-border volatility spillovers dominate the behavior in national electricity markets in Europe—and this effect has grown over time. We also implement an augmented gravity model of bilateral volatility spillovers across power markets in the EU. Altogether, these results provide important insights to policymakers and regulators with regards to greater integration of electricity markets and infrastructure improvements that would also help with the transition to low-carbon sources of power generation and strengthen energy security in Europe.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
While agricultural output suffers from yet another drought, non-agricultural output has remained robust, and domestic demand is strengthening. Nonetheless, unemployment has increased. Inflationary pressures have abated, allowing BAM to cut the policy rate in June 2024. The fiscal deficit is on track to meet the 2024 budget target, with stronger-than-expected revenues offset by increased current spending. Strong revenues from tourism, exports of goods, and remittances have kept the current account deficit to low levels. Morocco continues to make progress in bolstering its resilience against climate change and seizing the opportunities from decarbonization, under the RSF arrangement. Significant investments in water infrastructure aim at addressing water scarcity and will need to be complemented by demand management reforms. Continued progress toward liberalizing the electricity markets, a key dimension of the RSF, is needed to boost private sector participation in renewable energies (RE). This will not only help Morocco achieve its NDC targets but would also reduce its reliance on imported fuels, improve firms’ competitiveness, and help create jobs.
Kaihao Cai
,
Thibault Lemaire
,
Andrea Medici
,
Giovanni Melina
,
Gregor Schwerhoff
, and
Sneha D Thube
Sub-Saharan Africa needs to significantly accelerate its electricity generation. While hydropower is prominent in some countries, solar and wind power generation has lagged other world regions, even though sub-Saharan Africa has some of the most favorable conditions. A mix of domestic and external financing can increase both renewable electricity generation and GDP. In a scenario where about $25 bn in climate finance flows are allocated annually to renewable energy, renewable electricity production could be up to 24 percent higher than in a scenario excluding this financing, and annual GDP growth would be boosted by 0.8 percentage point on average over the next decade, accompanied by stronger labor demand in the electricity sector. Policies can help catalyze climate finance. An ambitious package of governance, business regulations, and external sector reforms is associated with a 20 percent increase in climate finance flows and a 7 percent increase in electricity generation over five years. In addition, implementing climate policies is linked to increases in green foreign direct investment announcements and green electricity production.