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Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Uzbekistan: Technical Assistance Report-Macro Stress Testing of the Uzbek Banking Sector
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The Technical Assistance (TA) mission, conducted in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, from August 21 to 31, 2023, assisted the Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s (CBU) authorities in developing their stress testing (ST) framework for the banking sector. This TA was the second of a multi-mission TA project following on the recommendations of the 2020 Financial Sector Stability Review (FSSR). This mission duly assessed the progress on the implementation of the previous mission (2022) that had introduced a multi-horizon ST tool based on explicit macroeconomic scenarios along with a credit risk satellite model. The purpose of this mission was to build on the earlier work and further strengthen the capacity of the Financial Stability Department (FSD) staff to carry out stress tests and thus assess the resilience of the Uzbek banking system. The high-level objectives of the mission encompassed improving performance of the credit risk and profit & loss satellite models, providing training on ST scenario design with working procedures for cross-departmental collaboration, and setting up guidelines to operate, maintain and improve the ST toolkit and communicate the results with senior management and general public.
Keywords:
Stress testing; macroprudential stress testing; credit risk; solvency risk; bank solvency stress testing; scenario design; financial stability; financial stability report; satellite models; Uzbekistan; Central Bank of Uzbekistan.; operating expenses; IMF's Monetary; donor partner; request of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan; Uzbek banking system; Nonperforming loans; Loans; Credit; Mortgages; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
الكويت: مشاورات المادة الرابعة لعام 2024 - بيان صحفي؛ تقرير الموظفين؛ وبيان المدير التنفيذي للكويت
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
لبح حباصلا لأحمد الجابرا لعيخ مششلا أمير البلاد ومالس بصاح ةضرح أمر ،2024 ويفي ما السياق: تفيذ إصلاحانت إلى تهدف السلطاتو .تاونس عبإلى أر لصت مدةل دستورلا بأجزاء من لمعلا فقلأمة ووا مجلس .عونناميكي ومتيد دتصاقا تقال إلىنلاا لدع
Keywords:
التضخم الرئيسي لمؤشر أسعار المستهلك؛ مكتب إدارة الديون؛ عقد المشتريات؛ مبادرة الحكومة الإلكترونية؛ تطوير سوق رأس المال؛ بيان صحفي استشاري؛ الإصلاحات الهيكلية؛ أسعار النفط؛ الاقتصاد العالمي
Cover Departmental Papers
Digital Transformation in the Gulf Cooperation Council Economies
Fozan Fareed
,
Sidra Rehman
,
Ran Bi
,
Jeong Dae Lee
,
Yuan Gao Rollinson
, and
Tongfang Yuan
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have pursued ambitious digitalization strategies as part of their broader economic transformation agenda. This paper provides a thorough review of the GCC's significant acceleration in digital transformation, particularly since the onset of the pandemic, highlighting progress in digital infrastructure, GovTech (government technology) maturity, and fintech activities. By constructing a novel composite index—the Enhanced Digital Access Index (EDAI)—and benchmarking the GCC's achievements against those of advanced and other emerging market economies, the paper finds that the GCC, on average, has closed its gap with AEs on the overall EDAI, with strengths particularly in digital infrastructure and affordability. Based on a global sample, the paper’s empirical analysis highlights a positive correlation between digitalization advancement and enhanced financial inclusion, strengthened banking sector resilience during crises, improved government effectiveness, and faster corporate sector recoveries following economic downturns. To complement the sectoral analysis of the impact of digitalization, the paper also examines the relationship of economic growth and resilience with economy-wide digitalization and find a positive association. Our findings point to additional economic gains from further advancing digitalization in the GCC, which would require comprehensive strategies to further leverage digitalization to enable a more effective and transparent public sector, balance opportunities and risks associated with fintech, enhance digital skills and digital adoption, with adequate social safety nets and appropriate training to strengthen social protection and labor market inclusion, and create an enabling environment to further digital penetration.
Keywords:
Digitalization; GCC; Resilience; Financial Inclusion; GovTech; Fintech; GCC country; GCC state; GCC labor force; artificial intelligence strategy; GCC's progress; Public sector; Global; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
عُمان: قضايا مختارة
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
عُمان: قضايا مختارة
Keywords:
capital markets incentives program; private sector employment; employment growth; SME growth; development in Oman; Digitalization; Capital markets; Stock markets; Securities markets; Global; South Asia; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
المملكة العربية السعودية: برنامج تقييم القطاع المالي – تقييم استقرار النظام المالي
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
تسلط هذه الورقة الضوء على تقييم استقرار النظام المالي في المملكة العربية السعودية كجزء من برنامج تقييم القطاع المالي (FSAP). تم تنفيذ برنامج تقييم القطاع المالي على خلفية اقتصاد قوي مدفوع بأجندة التحول الطموحة التي تقودها الدولة لتسريع عملية التنويع الاقتصادي في المملكة العربية السعودية (رؤية 2030). ويلعب صندوق الثروة السيادية للمملكة دوراً رئيسياً في تنفيذ وتمويل التحول الاقتصادي. وفي الوقت الحاضر، يبدو أن مخاطر القطاع المالي الناجمة عن التحول الاقتصادي السريع قد تم احتواؤها. وتتمتع البنوك برأس مال جيد وربحية وتبدو قادرة على الصمود في مواجهة صدمات الاقتصاد الكلي الشديدة. إن قدرة البنوك على إدارة سيناريوهات ضغط السيولة جيدة بشكل عام، على الرغم من أن تركيز التمويل كبير. وقد بذلت السلطات جهودًا جديرة بالثناء للتخفيف من المخاطر الناجمة عن النمو السريع في سوق الائتمان والعقارات، ولكن الفجوات الكبيرة في البيانات تخلق تحديات أمام مراقبة المخاطر النظامية. لقد حان الوقت لتعزيز مراقبة المخاطر النظامية والأطر القانونية والمؤسسية والتشغيلية لدعم الاستقرار المالي في المستقبل.
Keywords:
مكافحة غسل الأموال ومكافحة تمويل الإرهاب (AML/CFT)؛ ب. اختبارات التحمل البنكي؛ البنوك التجارية؛ نسبة التغطية؛ استقرار القطاع المالي؛ عالمي؛ إطار التصفية؛ سيناريو ضغط السيولة؛ السياسة الاحترازية الكلية؛ رئيس البعثة البنك الدولي؛ عضو فريق البنك الدولي لتقييم القطاع المالي.
Cover IMF Working Papers
Spillovers from Large Emerging Economies: How Dominant Is China?
Hany Abdel-Latif
and
Adina Popescu
This paper investigates the global economic spillovers emanating from G20 emerging markets (G20-EMs), with a particular emphasis on the comparative influence of China. Employing a Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, we assess the impacts of both demand-side and supply-side shocks across 63 countries, capturing the nuanced dynamics of global economic interactions. Our findings reveal that China's contribution to global economic spillovers significantly overshadows that of other G20-EMs. Specifically, China's domestic shocks have significantly larger and more pervasive spillover effects on global GDP, inflation and commodity prices compared to shocks from other G20-EMs. In contrast, spillovers from other G20-EMs are more regionally contained with modest global impacts. The study underscores China's outsized role in shaping global economic dynamics and the limited capacity of other G20-EMs to mitigate any potential negative implications from China's economic slowdown in the near term.
Keywords:
Emerging Economies; Growth Spillover; Global transmission; GVAR model; outsized role; China's contribution; IMF working paper No. 25/27; domestic shock; Spillovers; Supply shocks; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Oil prices; Global value chains; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Oman: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper reviews the experiences of other emerging markets in developing local capital markets, and describes the challenges faced in the development of such markets. Efforts are ongoing to develop the local currency bond market, supported by IMF technical assistance. Initiatives are underway to enhance access to the domestic equity market and increase its depth and liquidity. Still underdeveloped debt markets and systemic excess liquidity have driven a hold-to-maturity culture among investors, as several of the preconditions for liquid secondary markets are not met. Improving the government debt issuance strategy would enhance overall transparency and help increase secondary market liquidity. The review shows establishing a functioning money and local currency bond market remains a critical first step in successful capital markets' development, while several policy tools beyond tax incentives can be employed to support participation in local markets. Increasing the presence of life insurance companies and reducing information asymmetries would help spur demand from a broader set of institutional investors.
Keywords:
capital markets incentives program; private sector employment; employment growth; SME growth; development in Oman; Digitalization; Capital markets; Stock markets; Securities markets; Global; South Asia; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Shocks and Shields: Macroeconomic Institutions During Commodity Price Swings
Rabah Arezki
,
Patrick A. Imam
, and
Kangni R Kpodar
Countries facing commodity (net) export price shocks tend to implement fiscal rules and to financially close their economies, demonstrating “macroeconomic prudence”. These effects are (unsurprisingly) asymmetric between import and export price shocks. The impact of commodity (net) export prices on macroeconomic institutions is influenced by the intensity of shocks and income levels of the countries, with higher-income countries driving the main results. These findings remain robust across various checks, including different estimators and additional control and dependent variables. These findings suggest that macroeconomic institutions are reactive to terms of trade shocks stemming from commodity price fluctuations.
Keywords:
Commodity prices; macroeconomic institutions; natural resources; resource curse; price shock; commodity export; commodity terms of trade shock; impact of commodity; commodity export windfall; Commodity price shocks; Fiscal rules; Export prices; Exchange rate arrangements; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Market Power in the Middle East
Yevgeniya Korniyenko
,
Ahmed K Tohamy
, and
Weining Xin
The Middle East (ME) is often perceived as region with rentier economies and uncompetitive markets. Evidence of market power in the region however is scant. In this paper, we ask the following three questions: Is the ME uniquely uncompetitive? Has the evolution of market power in the region traced the global rise in market power? What government policies and actions influenced the market power in the region and can taxes be a way to even the playing field? To answer these questions, we utilize comprehensive firm-level data from Compustat between 2004 and 2022 and employ two methods for estimating markups (production function and cost-share approach). We document that market power among listed firms in the ME is higher than in the US, but on a downward trend. We find that the value-added tax (VAT) reforms introduced by some Gulf states from 2018 to 2022 resulted in a reduction of market power, an additional benefit beyond increasing fiscal space. While policymakers should continue to use available regulatory levers to achieve economic efficiency and a level playing field, VAT could be considered as an alternative instrument.
Keywords:
Middle East; Market Power; Markup; Firm Behavior; market power in the Middle East; markups estimate; sample representativeness; markups in GCC country; markups dynamics; Value-added tax; Competition; Inflation; Oil sector; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council: Pursuing Visions Amid Geopolitical Turbulence: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries have successfully weathered recent turbulence in the Middle East, and their economic prospects remain favorable. Nonhydrocarbon activity has been strong amid reform implementation, although overall growth has decelerated due to cuts in oil production. The growth outlook is positive, as the envisaged easing of oil production cuts and natural gas expansion spur the recovery in the hydrocarbon sector, while the nonhydrocarbon economy continues to expand. External buffers remain comfortable despite current account balances having narrowed. Risks around the outlook are broadly balanced in the near term. More challenging medium-term risks, especially in the context of geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change, call for action on policy priorities to continue to strengthen the private sector and to diversify the economy.
Keywords:
economic diversification; financial stability; fiscal sustainability; GCC; productivity improvements; regional integration; GCC country; policy priority; B. GCC; GCC well; GCC public sector balance sheet; Labor markets; Fiscal rules; Total factor productivity; Global; Middle East; Middle East and Central Asia