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Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia

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Cover Staff Climate Notes
Key Challenges Faced by Fossil Fuel Exporters during the Energy Transition
Diego Mesa Puyo
,
Augustus J Panton
,
Tarun Sridhar
,
Martin Stuermer
,
Christoph Ungerer
, and
Alice Tianbo Zhang
The global energy transition is affecting fossil fuel exporters from multiple angles. It is adding to longstanding uncertainties on relative movements of fossil fuel demand and supply—which impact fossil fuel-related exports, fiscal flows, investment and subsequently external and fiscal accounts, economic growth, and employment. While policymakers are very familiar with these challenges, they now also face expectations of a permanent decline in the long-run global demand for fossil fuels. Key factors that could determine country-level impacts include (i) the type of fossil fuel a country exports (ii) extraction costs and (iii) country characteristics. The monitoring and mitigation of fiscal risks will need to be stepped up. Fiscal policy also has a role in reducing domestic emissions, encouraging adoption of low-carbon technologies, and helping those most vulnerable to changes from the transition. Broader macroeconomic risks can be reduced by accelerating ongoing structural reforms that support alternative engines of growth. Low- or zero-carbon emission energy industries could offer new avenues that build on existing fossil fuel knowledge and infrastructure. Concurrently, improved financial regulation and supervision could reduce financial sector exposures. Finally, international coordination on the design and implementation of climate policy as well as international transfer schemes (financing and capacity development) could reduce uncertainties surrounding the transition path and associated adverse economic consequences.
Keywords:
Macroeconomic policy; climate change; energy transition; fossil fuel exporters; commodity market; climate mitigation; economic diversification; international coordination; IMF staff Climate note; IMF staff Climate Note 2024/001; fossil fuel exporter; building financial asset buffer; cost exporter; Non-renewable resources; Exports; Oil; Renewable energy; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Arab Emirates: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The Selected Issues paper discusses United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) focus on reforms for productive and greener growth. This paper aims to quantify the potential long-term growth and productivity gains from ongoing structural reform efforts. Facilitating green and sustainable private finance would reduce the direct fiscal burdens of investment needs and help promote a smooth transition to a lower carbon future. The UAE has recently signed or started negotiations for Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements with eleven countries. Depending on the UAE’s ability to further attract foreign direct investment, the reduction of tariffs, especially on intermediate inputs, can significantly lift long-term growth through stronger competition, access to a higher number of varieties and quality of inputs, and transfer of technology. Developing and scaling up private green and sustainable finance, as well as creating an enabling environment for smooth energy transition, would reduce direct fiscal costs, increase efficiency of green investments, and preserve public financial wealth while delivering on growth and Net Zero ambitions.
Keywords:
UAE government; ICT investment outcome; FDI restrictiveness index; quantifying gains from trade liberalization; productivity gain; Climate finance; Digital economy; Foreign direct investment; Sustainable growth; Global