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Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia

You are looking at 1 - 8 of 8 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Automation and Welfare: The Role of Bequests and Education
Manuk Ghazanchyan
,
Alexei Goumilevski
, and
Alex Mourmouras
This paper examines the welfare effects of automation in neoclassical growth models with and without intergenerational transfers. In a standard overlapping generations model without such transfers, improvements in automation technologies that would lower welfare can be mitigated by shifts in labor supply related to demographics or pandemics. With perfect intergenerational transfers based on altruism, automation could raise the well-being of all generations. With imperfect altruism, fiscal transfers (universal basic income) and public policies to expand access to education opportunities can alleviate much of the negative effect of automation.
Keywords:
Automation; Aging; Altruism; Fiscal Policy; Education; Overlapping Generations; appendix B. Replicating Kotlikoff; automation technology; IMF working papers; welfare effect; S model; production function; Income; Human capital; Consumption; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2023
Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2023
Building Resilience and Fostering Sustainable Growth
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Across the Middle East and Central Asia, the combined effects of global headwinds, domestic challenges, and geopolitical risks weigh on economic momentum, and the outlook is highly uncertain. Growth is set to slow this year in the Middle East and North Africa region, driven by lower oil production, tight policy settings in emerging market and middle-income economies, the conflict in Sudan, and other country-specific factors. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, although migration, trade, and financial inflows following Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to support economic activity, growth is set to moderate slightly this year. Looking ahead, economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa region is expected to improve in 2024 and 2025 as some factors weighing on growth this year gradually dissipate, including the temporary oil production cuts. But growth is expected to remain subdued over the forecast horizon amid persistent structural hurdles. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, economic growth is projected to slow next year and over the medium term as the boost to activity from real and financial inflows from Russia gradually fades and deep-seated structural challenges remain unsolved. Inflation is broadly easing, in line with globally declining price pressures, although country-specific factors—including buoyant wage growth in some Caucasus and Central Asia countries—and climate-related events continue to make their mark. Despite some improvement since April, the balance of risks to the outlook remains on the downside. In this context, expediting structural reforms is crucial to boost growth and strengthen resilience, while tight monetary and fiscal policies remain essential in several economies to durably bring down inflation and ensure public debt sustainability.

Keywords:
growth; inflation; public debt; external financing; commodity prices; structural reforms; investment; labor productivity; financial stability; stress testing; governance reform; GCC country; credit market reform; government effectiveness; reform package; Policy space; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Credit; Labor force participation; Middle East and Central Asia; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Middle East; North Africa; oil exporter; IMF staff calculation; CCA bank; sovereign-bank nexus; Fiscal stance; Current account balance; Commercial banks; Oil exports; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Natural Resource Booms in the Modern Era: Is the curse still alive?
Mr. Andrew M. Warner
The global boom in hydrocarbon, metal and mineral prices since the year 2000 created huge economic rents - rents which, once invested, were widely expected to promote productivity growth in other parts of the booming economies, creating a lasting legacy of the boom years. This paper asks whether this has happened. To properly address this question the empirical strategy must look behind the veil of the booming sector because that, by definition, will boom in a boom. So the paper considers new data on GDP per person outside of the resource sector. Despite having vast sums to invest, GDP growth per-capita outside of the booming sectors appears on average to have been no faster during the boom years than before. The paper finds no country in which (non-resource) growth per-person has been statisticallysignificantly higher during the boom years. In some Gulf states, oil rents have financed a migration-facilitated economic expansion with small or negative productivity gains. Overall, there is little evidence the booms have left behind the anticipated productivity transformation in the domestic economies. It appears that current policies are, overall, prooving insufficient to spur lasting development outside resource intensive sectors.
Keywords:
WP; natural resource; real GDP; civil war; Resource Booms; Dutch Disease; Economic Growth; Public Investment; boom period; resource boom; counterfactual period; GDP per-capita; resource rent; Natural resources; Public investment spending; Human capital; Public expenditure review; Oil; Eastern Europe; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses strengthening of fiscal policy and fiscal frameworks in Qatar. It proposes ways to ensure that sustainable fiscal policy is maintained in the medium to long term in Qatar. Fiscal policy remains sustainable, but given the large drop in oil prices, revenue-raising and expenditure-containing measures need to be considered to ensure intergenerational equity. Measures aimed at containing current spending, prioritizing capital expenditure, and raising nonhydrocarbon revenues would help bring fiscal policy back to consistency with intergenerational equity. Strengthening fiscal frameworks would help achieve the desirable fiscal policies.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Qatar; productivity; revenue; labor productivity; country inflation variable; inflation acceleration; double digit inflation; migration rate; price inflation; government expenditure; lower-than-average productivity; world inflation; growth performance; credit growth; money growth trigger inflation; expenditure-containing measure; Inflation; Total factor productivity; Budget planning and preparation; Labor productivity; Human capital; Global; North Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Natural Resources, Volatility, and Inclusive Growth: Perspectives From the Middle East and North Africa
Mr. Mustapha K. Nabli
and
Mr. Rabah Arezki
This paper takes stock of the economic performance of resource rich countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) over the past forty years. While those countries have maintained high levels of income per capita, they have performed poorly when going beyond the assessment based on standard income level measures. Resource rich countries in MENA have experienced relatively low and non inclusive economic growth as well as high levels of macroeconomic volatility. Important improvements in health and education have taken place but the quality of the provision of public goods and services remains an important source of concerns. Looking forward we argue that the success of economic reforms in MENA rests on the ability of those countries to invest boldly in building inclusive institutions as well as high levels of human capacity in public administrations.
Keywords:
WP; MENA country; country; MENA region; GCC country; curse literature; resource rich.; Natural resources; volatility; inclusive growth; Middle East and North Africa.; private sector; Public investment spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Human capital; Fiscal rules; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Survey
De Rato insta a las economías de Oriente Medio a diversificar
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
La edición en Internet del Boletín del FMI, que se actualiza varias veces a la semana, contiene numerosos artículos sobre temas de actualidad en el ámbito de las políticas y la economía. Consulte las últimas investigaciones del FMI, lea entrevistas y escuche podcasts de los principales economistas del FMI sobre importantes temas relacionados con la economía mundial. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Keywords:
SV; Rodrigo de Rato; METAC opening; article IV consultation; liberalization
Cover IMF Survey
Les pays du Moyen-Orient doivent se diversifier
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
L’édition web du Bulletin du FMI est mise à jour plusieurs fois par semaine et contient de nombreux articles sur des questions de politique générale et de politique économique d'actualité. Accédez aux dernières recherches du FMI, lisez des interviews et écoutez des podcasts proposés par les principaux économistes du FMI sur des questions importantes de l'économie mondiale. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Keywords:
SV; Rodrigo de Rato; METAC opening; article IV consultation; liberalization
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 32, Issue 23
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Keywords:
SV; Rodrigo de Rato; METAC opening; article IV consultation; liberalization; IMF managing director de Rato; IMF representative; IMF publication service; mission chief; Capital inflows; Distressed assets; Productivity; Trade liberalization; Labor productivity; Global; Asia and Pacific; Middle East; Europe; Mekong