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Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia

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Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council: Pursuing Visions Amid Geopolitical Turbulence: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries have successfully weathered recent turbulence in the Middle East, and their economic prospects remain favorable. Nonhydrocarbon activity has been strong amid reform implementation, although overall growth has decelerated due to cuts in oil production. The growth outlook is positive, as the envisaged easing of oil production cuts and natural gas expansion spur the recovery in the hydrocarbon sector, while the nonhydrocarbon economy continues to expand. External buffers remain comfortable despite current account balances having narrowed. Risks around the outlook are broadly balanced in the near term. More challenging medium-term risks, especially in the context of geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change, call for action on policy priorities to continue to strengthen the private sector and to diversify the economy.
Keywords:
economic diversification; financial stability; fiscal sustainability; GCC; productivity improvements; regional integration; GCC country; policy priority; B. GCC; GCC well; GCC public sector balance sheet; Labor markets; Fiscal rules; Total factor productivity; Global; Middle East; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover Gender Notes
Why a Gender Lens Matters: Unlocking Solutions to Macroeconomic Challenges
Lisa L Kolovich
,
Monique Newiak
,
Diego B. P. Gomes
,
Jiajia Gu
,
Vivian Malta
, and
Jorge Mondragon
As governments design policy packages to address the main macroeconomic questions of our times, putting a gender lens on macroeconomics can amplify reform impact. In this note, IMF staff’s analysis has called for attention to strengthening legal rights, gendered aspects of fiscal policy, and enhancing women’s work–life choices, including through structural reforms. Capacity development to assist member countries in their reform efforts has grown and, so far, has centered on integrating gender into public financial management systems through gender budgeting.
Keywords:
gender lens; macroeconomic policy; macro-gender tools; gender indicators; capacity development; IMF gender note; gender toolkit; IMF gender Note 2024/003; IMF staff calculation; Gender inequality; Gender diversity; Women; Labor force participation; Labor markets; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Middle East and Central Asia: Trade-Offs Today for Transformation Tomorrow
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Middle East and Central Asia: Trade-Offs Today for Transformation Tomorrow
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

A fragile recovery continues in the Middle East and Central Asia region. The region has made good progress since the beginning of the year, but new challenges have emerged. They include a pandemic wave in countries with weak vaccination progress and rising inflation, which has contributed to declining monetary policy space, adding to the difficulties posed by limited fiscal policy space. Additionally, divergent recoveries and concerns about economic scarring persist. Inequities are also on the rise, and countries will need to tackle the pandemic’s impact on debt, labor markets, and the corporate sector. Countries will face difficult tradeoffs amid this challenging environment as they continue to manage the current crisis. Ramping up vaccine acquisition and distribution remains the most urgent short-term priority. Additional support should be well targeted, and central banks may need to raise interest rates if inflation expectations start to increase. Improving policy frameworks will be important to reduce policy tradeoffs. Preparing for a new chapter by investing in a transformational recovery will be vital to the region’s future. Important priorities include reorienting the role of the state toward health, education, and social safety nets; leveraging global trends like digitalization; and investing in climate-resilient technology.

Keywords:
Middle East; North Africa; Caucasus; Central Asia; economy; pandemic; recovery; COVID-19; inflation; fiscal policy; monetary policy; regional outlook; country abbreviation; insolvency risk; GCC country; worse-performing firm; follow-up enterprise survey; nonwage outlay; firm resilience; formalization progress; Labor markets; Unemployment; Employment; Inflation; Middle East and Central Asia; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Working Papers
Is Capping Executive Bonuses Useful?
Kentaro Asai
This paper develops a theoretical framework to study the impact of bonus caps on banks’ risk taking. In the model, labor market price adjustments can offset the direct effects of bonus caps. The calibrated model suggests that bonus caps are only effective when bank executives’ mobility is restricted. It also suggests, irrespective of the degree of labor market mobility, bonus caps simultaneously reduce risk shifting by bank executives (too much risk taking because of limited liability), but aggravate underinvestment (bank executives foregoing risky but productive projects). Hence, the welfare effects of bonus caps critically depend on initial conditions, including the relative importance of risk shifting versus underinvestment.
Keywords:
WP; labor market; executive compensation; risk taking; risk shifting; underinvestment; asset return volatility; payoff schedule; market portfolio; base pay; composite index; incentive contract; schedule of shareholder; Bonuses; Labor markets; Labor mobility; Commercial banks; Asia and Pacific; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Jordan: Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jordan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Jordan’s Request for an extended arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The economic growth of Jordan remains below potential. Unemployment is high, particularly for youth and women, and the refugee crisis is weighing on the economy and public finances. Real GDP growth is projected to increase to 2.8 percent in 2016, supported by lower oil prices relative to their 2014 peak, an accommodative monetary stance, and some recovery in private investment. In view of Jordan’s balance of payment needs, the policy actions already taken, and the comprehensive package of adjustment measures proposed by the authorities, the IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for an extended arrangement under the EFF.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; reform program; refugee; deficit; indirect cost; electricity company NEPCO; NEPCO; IMF quota; government balance; economic reform reform program; Syrian refugee; Government debt management; Fiscal consolidation; Loans; Global; Europe; Middle East; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kuwait: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes energy price reform in Kuwait. It emphasizes that Kuwait should take advantage of current low global energy prices to strengthen efforts to reform domestic energy prices. In the longer term, this would benefit growth by increasing efficiency in the economy and creating space for higher public and private investment. In the short-term, one-off effects on inflation should be manageable. Productive activities more sensitive to energy costs, particularly the transport sector, would be able to adjust to higher energy prices more easily if the reform is gradual.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; firm; price; debt; companies debt; energy price; real estate; transport company; installments loan; beverages company; wage subsidy; Energy prices; Inflation; Labor markets; Employment; Fuel prices; Global; Asia and Pacific; Europe; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Saudi Arabia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper assesses the importance of oil and interest rate spillovers for Saudi Arabia. Oil prices have fallen by more than 40 percent since mid-2014 while the Federal Reserve is expected in the coming months to begin raising its policy rate at the beginning of a gradual tightening cycle. Given the importance of oil to the economy and the peg of the riyal to the U.S. dollar, these are two key developments for Saudi Arabia. Although a temporary drop in oil prices would likely have little effect on the economy and banks given the financial cushions that have been built-up, a longer-lasting period of low oil prices would have a more significant impact.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; price; oil price; private sector; government spending; equity price; energy price; NPL ratio; price reform; Energy prices; Oil prices; Fuel prices; Labor markets; Electricity; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Saudi Arabia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Saudi Arabia: Selected Issues
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; price; oil price; private sector; government spending
Cover IMF Working Papers
Comparing the Employment-Output Elasticities of Expatriates and Nationals in the Gulf Cooperation Council
Mr. Alberto Behar
We estimate the elasticity of private-sector employment to non-oil GDP in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) for GCC nationals and expatriates using a Seemingly Unrelated Error Correction (SUREC) model. Our results indicate that the employment response is lower for nationals, who have an estimated short-run elasticity of only 0.15 and a long-run response of 0.7 or less. The elasticity is almost unity for expatriates in the long run and 0.35 in the short run. We interpret low elasticities as indirect evidence of labor market adjustment costs, which could include hiring and firing rigidities, skills mismatches, and reluctance to accept private sector jobs. Forecasts suggest that, absent measures to reduce adjustment costs, the private sector will only be able to absorb a small portion of nationals entering the labor force.
Keywords:
WP; labor market; Employment Elasticities; Labor Market Adjustment Costs; GCC; Gulf Cooperation Council; Inclusive Growth; GCC country; employment growth; GCC employment; GCC labor market structure; employment response; growth forecast; employment elasticity; GCC elasticity; employment projection; employment-growth relationship; employment rigidity; GCC aggregate; Employment; Labor markets; Public employment; Labor force; Public sector; Middle East; Middle East and Central Asia; North Africa; East Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Lebanon: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the various transmission channels of the Syrian crisis—though quantification is hampered by the lack of reliable data—with focus on the impact on fiscal performance and labor markets; it also takes stock of international donor efforts to date. The paper also provides overviews of main effects on Lebanon’s economy, the expenditure pressures associated with the refugee presence, the impact on poverty and inequality, and the added strains on labor markets. A section of the paper describes the response by the international community to help Lebanon cope with the Syrian crisis. Absent additional international support, the needs of both refugees and affected Lebanese communities will not be met. Sound government policies—including implementation of a concerted policy framework to deal with refugee issues and a commitment to fiscal discipline—will send credible signals to donors and help mobilize budget support. Tackling the unprecedented refugee crisis requires strong international support. There has been a large international humanitarian response, but much more is needed.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; refugee; Lebanon; natural resources; stock market; refugee influx; revenue; stock exchange; resource revenue; influx scenario; refugee crisis; Fiscal stance; Stock markets; Fiscal governance; Labor markets; Middle East; Europe; Asia and Pacific; Global