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Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia

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Cover IMF Working Papers
An Analysis of OPEC’s Strategic Actions, US Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash
Mr. Alberto Behar
and
Robert A Ritz
In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a "regime switch" by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv) production ramp-ups in other non-OPEC countries. We show that these qualitative predictions are broadly consistent with oil market developments during 2014-15. The model is calibrated to oil market data; it predicts accommodation up to 2014 and a market-share strategy thereafter, and explains large oil-price swings as well as realistically high levels of OPEC output.
Keywords:
WP; market share; OPEC supply; production capacity; market power; Crude oil; OPEC; price crash; shale oil; limit pricing; regime switch; OPEC producer; OPEC capacity; OPEC statistics; Oil prices; Oil; Demand elasticity; Futures; Public expenditure review; Global; oil price crash; shale growth; calibration approach; oil supply and demand growth; strategic action; Oil consumption; Oil production
Cover IMF Working Papers
Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries
Carlos Caceres
and
Leandro Medina
The recent relatively high levels of global oil prices have led to a significant improvement in the public finances of several hydrocarbon-exporting countries. However, despite the increase in fiscal buffers, medium-term risks remain high. Fiscal vulnerabilities have increased as a consequence of the substantial spending packages that have been implemented in recent years. This has raised break-even prices—that is, the price levels that ensure that fiscal accounts are in balance at a given level of spending—in these countries. This study analyses such risks and develops measures of fiscal risk stemming from oil price fluctuations. An empirical application to hydrocarbon-exporting countries from the Middle East and North Africa region is included. Additionally, it is noted that countries with large net assets and proven oil reserves are much less vulnerable to fiscal risk than is indicated by standard measures based on break-even prices. 
Keywords:
WP; price; break-even price; break-even; oil price; Fiscal risk; stochastic simulations; oil prices; volatility; break-even prices; breakeven price; price change; price of oil; spot market; price of Brent; Commodity price fluctuations; Fiscal risks; Futures; Commodity prices; Middle East; North Africa; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Quota Formula Review - Data Update and Further Considerations
International Monetary Fund
In March 2012, the Executive Board held its first formal discussion on the comprehensive review of the quota formula. This review, to be completed by January 2013, is an important part of the quota and governance reforms agreed in 2010. Directors stressed the importance of agreeing on a quota formula that better reflects members’ relative positions in the global economy for future discussions on the 15th General Review of Quotas. This view was reiterated in April by the IMFC, which looked forward to an agreement by January 2013: "…on a simple and transparent quota formula that better reflects members’ relative positions in the world economy." The IMFC also reaffirmed its commitment to complete the 15th quota review by January 2014. It noted that any realignment is expected to result in increases in the quota shares of dynamic economies in line with their relative positions in the world economy, and hence likely in the share of EMDCs as a whole; and that steps shall be taken to protect the voice and representation of the poorest members. The Board held an informal follow-up meeting on June 13, 2012.
Keywords:
PP; quota share; Transition economy; advanced economy; GDP ratio; PPP GDP; quota formula; reserves share; IDA contribution; International investment position; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Purchasing power parity; Options; Income; Western Hemisphere; Africa; Middle East; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Volatility of Oil Prices
Mr. Peter Wickham
This paper examines the behavior of crude oil prices since 1980, and in particular the volatility of these prices. The empirical analysis covers “spot” prices for one of the key internationally traded crudes, namely Dated Brent Blend. A GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic) model, which allows the conditional variance to be time-variant, is estimated for the period which includes the oil price slump of 1986 and the surge in prices in 1990 as a result of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. The paper also discusses the growth of futures and derivative markets and the dynamic links between spot and futures markets.
Keywords:
WP; price; market; spot price; oil price volatility; price curve; oil market trader; market efficiency; term contract; oil market deregulation; participants reaction; price surge; oil price data; price risk; oil price series; oil price slump; Oil prices; Oil; Futures; Futures markets; Price controls; Middle East