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Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia

You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Economic policy; nternational cooperation x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Policy and Spillover Analysis in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach
Mr. Francis Vitek
This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into forty national economies. This panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages, and diverse spillover transmission channels. A variety of monetary policy analysis, fiscal policy analysis, spillover analysis, and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated. These include quantifying the monetary and fiscal transmission mechanisms, accounting for business cycle fluctuations, and generating relatively accurate forecasts of inflation and output growth.
Keywords:
WP; Monetary policy analysis; Fiscal policy analysis; Spillover analysis; Forecasting; World economy; Panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model; Bayesian econometrics; price inflation; shadow price; recipient economy; constant returns to scale; marginal revenue; stochastic process; utility function; Phillips curve; financial asset; risk premium shock; markup shock; production function; Consumption; Terms of trade; Return on investment; Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; Inflation; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach
Mr. Francis Vitek
This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model encompasses an approximate linear panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a monetary transmission mechanism, a fiscal transmission mechanism, and extensive macrofinancial linkages, both within and across economies. A variety of monetary policy analysis, fiscal policy analysis, spillover analysis, and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment.
Keywords:
WP; Monetary policy analysis; Fiscal policy analysis; Spillover analysis; Forecasting; markup shock; price inflation; Phillips curve; recipient economy; excess demand; constant returns to scale; stochastic process; utility function; world energy commodity price markup shock; price markup shock; monetary policy shock; commodity price markup shock; Central bank policy rate; Terms of trade; Return on investment; Market interest rates; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Terms of Trade Shocks and Economic Recovery
Patrick A. Imam
,
Eleonara Granziera
, and
Mr. Norbert Funke
This paper identifies factors that contribute to a fast recovery in growth after persistent negative terms of trade shocks, using a sample of 159 countries for 1970-2006. The results suggest that policies matter. Fast recoveries are fairly robustly related to real exchange rate depreciation and improvements in government stability and the institutional environment. A timely increase in aid may also support recovery.
Keywords:
WP; terms of trade shock; exchange rate
Cover IMF Working Papers
Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter
Mr. Paolo Mauro
and
Mr. Torbjorn I. Becker
Output drops are usually associated with major disruption for the residents of affected countries, both directly and often through ensuing, prolonged growth slowdowns. Using a century of data, we document that output drops are more frequent in countries at a lower stage of economic development. We then turn to a more in-depth analysis of the post-1970 era, examining output drops in a large panel of countries, and systematically relating them to a variety of shocks. We compute the expected cost of each type of shock as a function of the shock's frequency, the likelihood that the shock will be associated with a drop in output, and the size of the output drop. The largest costs are associated with external financial shocks (notably, sudden stops in financial flows) for emerging markets, and with real external shocks (in particular, terms-of-trade shocks) for developing countries.
Keywords:
WP; cost; output drop; GDP; output
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Terms of Trade and Economic Fluctuations
Mr. Enrique G. Mendoza
A three-good, stochastic intertemporal equilibrium model of a small open economy is used to examine the link between terms of trade and business cycles. Equilibrium co-movements of model economies representing industrial and developing countries are computed and compared with the stylized facts of 30 countries. The results show that terms-of-trade shocks account for half of observed output variability and that the model mimics the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect and produces large deviations from purchasing power parity. The elasticity of substitution between tradable and nontradable goods and the persistence of the shocks play a key role in producing these results.
Keywords:
WP; standard deviation; real GDP; U.S. dollar; terms-of-trade shock; terms-of-trade disturbance; form terms of trade; open economy; terms-of-trade effect; Terms of trade; Trade balance; Consumption; Business cycles; Import prices; Western Hemisphere; Middle East; Africa; Asia and Pacific