Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia

You are looking at 1 - 9 of 9 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Balance of trade x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, April 2024
Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, April 2024
An Uneven Recovery amid High Uncertainty
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

The Middle East and North Africa and the Caucasus and Central Asia regions are positively impacted by the resilience of the global economy. Lower global commodity prices and vigilant policy responses have helped ease inflation in most countries. However, uncertainty and risks have risen amid ongoing conflicts, shipping disruptions, and reduced oil production. This is leading to an uneven recovery across the Middle East and Central Asia, with growth rates varying this year. Policymakers need to ensure economic stability and debt sustainability while navigating geopolitical risks and improving medium-term growth prospects. Amid high uncertainty, it is essential that countries implement reforms to enhance their fundamentals, including by strengthening institutions. Additionally, countries can seize potential economic opportunities amid shifting trade patterns by reducing long-standing trade barriers, diversifying products and markets, and improving infrastructure.

Keywords:
Trade; trade disruptions; trade diversion; trade dynamics; conflict; geoeconomic fragmentation; global value chains; policy actions; IMF staff calculation; MENA country; ME&CA economy; heightened transit trade diversion; oil exporter; trade diversion reshaping trade; headline inflation; Current account balance; Trade balance; Fiscal stance; Exports; Inflation; Middle East and Central Asia; Middle East; Central Asia and the Caucasus; North Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Trade Spillovers of Domestic Subsidies
Lorenzo Rotunno
and
Michele Ruta
As governments resort to industrial policies to achieve economic and non-economic objectives, the number of subsidies implemented each year has more than tripled in the last decade. Using detailed data across a large number of advanced and emerging economies, we empirically investigate the effects of domestic subsidies on international trade flows. Estimates from a difference-in-difference specification show that on average subsidies promote both exports and imports. These effects are partly driven by selection into subsidies, as governments target export-oriented and import-competing products. The results however mask significant differences across countries. Specifically, exports of subsidized products from G20 emerging markets increase 8 percent more than exports of other products, with no evidence of selection. The gravity estimates confirm that subsidies promote international relative to domestic trade. These spillover effects are concentrated in some industries, such as electrical machinery, and are stronger when subsidies are given through tax breaks than other policy instruments. The subsidy-led rise in trade calls for international cooperation to manage risks of retaliatory actions and possible drifts towards a subsidy war.
Keywords:
Subsidies; Industrial Policy; International Trade; Spillovers; trade spillover; spillover effect; subsidy share; effects of subsidy; subsidized product; Trade balance; Exports; Imports; Trade policy; Export competitiveness; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Another Piece of the Puzzle: Adding Swift Data on Documentary Collections to the Short-Term Forecast of World Trade
Narek Ghazaryan
,
Mr. Alexei Goumilevski
,
Mr. Joannes Mongardini
, and
Aneta Radzikowski
This paper extends earlier research by adding SWIFT data on documentary collections to the short-term forecast of international trade. While SWIFT documentary collections accounted for just over one percent of world trade financing in 2020, they have strong explanatory power to forecast world trade and national trade in selected economies. The informational content from documentary collections helps improve the forecast of world trade, while a horse race with machine learning algorithms shows significant non-linearities between trade and its determinants during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Keywords:
SWIFT; trade forecast; machine learning; trade message; IMF working papers; DFM forecast; IMF working paper No. 21/293; linear regression forecast; Merchandise export; Imports; Exports; Credit; Trade finance; Trade balance; Global; Australia and New Zealand; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Trade Elasticities in the Middle East and Central Asia: What is the Role of Oil?
Mr. Andreas Billmeier
and
Ms. Dalia S Hakura
The analysis in this paper suggests that import and export volume elasticities are markedly lower in oil-exporting Middle East and Central Asian countries than in non-oil countries in the region. A key implication of this finding is that a real appreciation of the exchange rate in oil-exporting countries would achieve little in terms of expenditure switching: an appreciation does not boost imports and non-oil exports constitute only a small share of GDP and total trade in these countries. Therefore, while a real appreciation lowers the current account surplus of oil-exporting countries through valuation effects, the contribution to lowering global imbalances may be more limited.
Keywords:
WP; export price; trade balance elasticity; foreign currency; price elasticity; volume elasticity
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of U.S. Economic Growthon the Rest of the World: How Much Does it Matter?
Mr. Athanasios Vamvakidis
and
Mr. Vivek B. Arora
This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of economic growth in the United States on growth in other countries. Using panel data estimation, the paper finds a significant positive impact of U.S. growth on growth in the rest of the world, especially developing countries, during the past few decades. The evidence suggests that the impact of U.S. growth on other countries can be explained by the significance of the United States as a global trading partner. The paper provides estimates of the direct impact of trade with the United States on growth in several individual countries.
Keywords:
WP; trading partner; world growth; trade effect; Economic growth; international trade; trading-partner role; role of the United States; trade linkage; U.S. real; Latin American country; trade diversification; trading partner growth; a number of country; inflation rate; significance of the United States; Exports; Government consumption; Population growth; Trade in goods; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Intra-Arab Trade: Is it too Little?
Tarik Yousef
and
Mr. Hassan Al-Atrash
This paper estimates a gravity model to address the issue of whether intra-Arab trade is too little. Although gravity models have been extensively used to measure bilateral trade among countries, they have—to the best of our knowledge—never been used to measure intra-Arab trade. Our results suggest that intra-Arab trade and Arab trade with the rest of the world are lower than what would be predicted by the gravity equation, suggesting considerable scope for regional—as well as multilateral—integration. The results also suggest that intra-GCC and intra-Maghreb trade are relatively low while the Mashreq countries exhibit a higher level of intragroup trade.
Keywords:
WP; trade creation; Arab country; Arab countries; gravity model; trade; Mashreq country; trade diversion effect; reporting country; Andean Pact country; GCC country; oil-producing country; trade restrictiveness index; Exports; Imports; Gravity models; Trade barriers; Trade balance; Maghreb
Cover IMF Working Papers
Intra-Industry Trade of Arab Countries: An Indicator of Potential Competitiveness
Mr. Peter J Kunzel
and
Mr. Oleh Havrylyshyn
Recent and ongoing agreements to liberalize trade between the European Union (EU) and Arab countries raises the question as to how the latter will fare in a more competitive environment. This paper uses the Grubel-Lloyd intra-industry trade (IIT) index as an indicator of the degree of industrial specialization to study Arab countries’ ability to compete in a more open trade setting. It concludes that whereas increased specialization has been achieved over the last decade in Arab countries, IIT remains low not only in absolute terms, but even in a cross-country comparison, when normalized for the level of development.
Keywords:
WP; IIT level; IIT index; IIT determinant; industry trade; IIT indices; IIT regression; Exports; Trade liberalization; Manufacturing; Trade balance; Personal income; Global; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Working Papers
External Stability Under Alternative Nominal Exchange Rate Anchors: An Application to the GCC Countries
Mr. Zubair Iqbal
and
Mr. S. Nuri Erbas
Import and export stability is examined under two alternative nominal exchange rate anchors, the U.S. dollar and the SDR. Stability under the two pegs depends critically on import and export elasticity with respect to exchange rates. The implications of import and export elasticity for an optimal currency basket are also explored. The elasticity estimates for the GCC countries suggest that the SDR peg may not outperform the dollar peg in improving external stability. Nevertheless, switching to some other nominal exchange rate anchor may improve external stability, a possibility that remains to be explored.
Keywords:
WP; SDR peg; dollar peg; SDR zone; SDR currency; dollar-denominated import; Imports; Exports; Currencies; Exchange rates; Trade balance
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Terms of Trade and Economic Fluctuations
Mr. Enrique G. Mendoza
A three-good, stochastic intertemporal equilibrium model of a small open economy is used to examine the link between terms of trade and business cycles. Equilibrium co-movements of model economies representing industrial and developing countries are computed and compared with the stylized facts of 30 countries. The results show that terms-of-trade shocks account for half of observed output variability and that the model mimics the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect and produces large deviations from purchasing power parity. The elasticity of substitution between tradable and nontradable goods and the persistence of the shocks play a key role in producing these results.
Keywords:
WP; standard deviation; real GDP; U.S. dollar; terms-of-trade shock; terms-of-trade disturbance; form terms of trade; open economy; terms-of-trade effect; Terms of trade; Trade balance; Consumption; Business cycles; Import prices; Western Hemisphere; Middle East; Africa; Asia and Pacific