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Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia

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Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council: Pursuing Visions Amid Geopolitical Turbulence: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries have successfully weathered recent turbulence in the Middle East, and their economic prospects remain favorable. Nonhydrocarbon activity has been strong amid reform implementation, although overall growth has decelerated due to cuts in oil production. The growth outlook is positive, as the envisaged easing of oil production cuts and natural gas expansion spur the recovery in the hydrocarbon sector, while the nonhydrocarbon economy continues to expand. External buffers remain comfortable despite current account balances having narrowed. Risks around the outlook are broadly balanced in the near term. More challenging medium-term risks, especially in the context of geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change, call for action on policy priorities to continue to strengthen the private sector and to diversify the economy.
Keywords:
economic diversification; financial stability; fiscal sustainability; GCC; productivity improvements; regional integration; GCC country; policy priority; B. GCC; GCC well; GCC public sector balance sheet; Labor markets; Fiscal rules; Total factor productivity; Global; Middle East; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover Breaking the Oil Spell
Breaking the Oil Spell
The Gulf Falcons' Path to Diversification
Reda Cherif
,
Fuad Hasanov
, and
Min Zhu

Abstract

The “Gulf Falcons”—the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council—have high living standards as a result of large income flows from oil. The decline of oil prices between summer 2014 and fall 2015 underscores the urgency for the Gulf Falcons to diversify away from their current heavy reliance on oil exports. This book discusses attempts at diversification in the Middle East and North Africa and the complex choices policymakers face. It brings together the views of academics and policymakers to offer practical advice for future efforts to increase productivity growth.

Keywords:
BOOK; industry; country; GCC country; IMF's Middle East Center for Economics and Finance; economy; oil exporter; establishment of the CEF; natural resource boom; lessons Korea; Productivity; Oil; Exports; Global; East Asia; Middle East; Southeast Asia; North Africa; private sector; value chain; government failure; Manufacturing
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses strengthening of fiscal policy and fiscal frameworks in Qatar. It proposes ways to ensure that sustainable fiscal policy is maintained in the medium to long term in Qatar. Fiscal policy remains sustainable, but given the large drop in oil prices, revenue-raising and expenditure-containing measures need to be considered to ensure intergenerational equity. Measures aimed at containing current spending, prioritizing capital expenditure, and raising nonhydrocarbon revenues would help bring fiscal policy back to consistency with intergenerational equity. Strengthening fiscal frameworks would help achieve the desirable fiscal policies.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Qatar; productivity; revenue; labor productivity; country inflation variable; inflation acceleration; double digit inflation; migration rate; price inflation; government expenditure; lower-than-average productivity; world inflation; growth performance; credit growth; money growth trigger inflation; expenditure-containing measure; Inflation; Total factor productivity; Budget planning and preparation; Labor productivity; Human capital; Global; North Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Estimating Potential Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia
Ms. Pritha Mitra
,
Amr Hosny
,
Gohar Abajyan
, and
Mr. Mark Fischer
The Middle East and Central Asia’s economic growth potential is slowing faster than in other emerging and developing regions, dampening hopes for reducing persistent unemployment and improving the region’s generally low living standards. Why? And is it possible to alter this course? This paper addresses these questions by estimating potential growth, examining its supply-side drivers, and assessing which of them could be most effective in raising potential growth. The analysis reveals that the region’s potential growth is expected to slow by ¾ of a percentage point more than the EMDC average over the next five years. The reasons behind this slowdown differ across the region. Lower productivity growth drives the slowdown in the Caucasus and Central Asia and is also weighing on growth across the Middle East (MENAP); while a lower labor contribution to potential growth is the main driver in MENAP. Moving forward, given some natural constraints on labor, total factor productivity growth is key to unlocking the region’s higher growth potential. For oil importers, raising physical capital accumulation through greater investment will also play an important role.
Keywords:
WP; oil importer; exporter; importer; oil exporter; physical capital; potential growth; productivity; output gap; production function; Middle East; Central Asia.; HP filter; physical capital accumulation; CCA oil importer; production function approach; IMF staff estimate; MENAP region; Oil; Total factor productivity; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Oil prices; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; central Asia1; growth in the Middle East; growth estimate; copyright page
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Saudi Arabia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; quote; worker; oil price; TFP
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Saudi Arabia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on Saudi Arabia assesses Saudi Arabia’s role in the oil market and global economy. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest producer and exporter of oil, has long played a systemically important role in the global oil market. Short-term fluctuations in Saudi Arabia’s oil production have partially reflected attempts to stabilize the global oil market. Saudi Arabia has on several occasions used its systemic role to raise production to fill global demand gaps created by large supply disturbances. The authorities have made significant investments in higher education to enable productive private-sector employment for new Saudi labor force entrants.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; quote; worker; oil price; TFP; medium term expenditure framework; expatriate worker; TFP growth; growth accounting methodology; TFP estimate; Oil prices; Total factor productivity; Oil; Employment; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Saudi Arabia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This chapter reviews developments in GDP over the past several decades. The analysis shows that accumulation of labor and capital explains the bulk of overall output growth since 1990, with changes in total factor productivity playing only a minor role. Moreover, while increases in total factor productivity (TFP) during 1990-2009 have been close to the worldwide average, the pace of TFP growth fell during the 2000s. This suggests scope for increasing the efficiency of factor markets and highlights the importance of recent reforms to promote knowledge-based activity.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; price; TFP growth; oil price; oil GDP; private-sector employment; Dutch disease; Oil prices; Total factor productivity; Employment; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Global; Asia and Pacific; Middle East; business cycle correlation; one-standard error GDP Shock; C. fiscal policy; impulse response; cyclical GDP; D. labor market initiative; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Accelerating And Sustaining Growth: Economic and Political Lessons
Mr. Arvind Virmani
The paper reviews and draws lessons from the experience of fast growing economies including a sub-set of these termed High Growth Economies (HGEs) with a decadal rate of over 7 per cent. It then reviews the history of the Indian growth acceleration following the reforms of the 1990s and its future prospects given the recent slowdown. It analysis the potential dangers and reasons for India’s growth slowdown and proposes policy reforms for sustaining fast growth.
Keywords:
WP; financial crisis; economic growth; low income; capital goods; exchange rate; natural resource; High Growth Economies; India; Policy Reforms; Timing and Phasing.; political system; public goods; land market; pHGE country; Income; Natural resources; Foreign direct investment; Imports; Productivity; Global; South Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Survey
De Rato insta a las economías de Oriente Medio a diversificar
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
La edición en Internet del Boletín del FMI, que se actualiza varias veces a la semana, contiene numerosos artículos sobre temas de actualidad en el ámbito de las políticas y la economía. Consulte las últimas investigaciones del FMI, lea entrevistas y escuche podcasts de los principales economistas del FMI sobre importantes temas relacionados con la economía mundial. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Keywords:
SV; Rodrigo de Rato; METAC opening; article IV consultation; liberalization
Cover IMF Survey
Les pays du Moyen-Orient doivent se diversifier
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
L’édition web du Bulletin du FMI est mise à jour plusieurs fois par semaine et contient de nombreux articles sur des questions de politique générale et de politique économique d'actualité. Accédez aux dernières recherches du FMI, lisez des interviews et écoutez des podcasts proposés par les principaux économistes du FMI sur des questions importantes de l'économie mondiale. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Keywords:
SV; Rodrigo de Rato; METAC opening; article IV consultation; liberalization