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Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia

You are looking at 1 - 4 of 4 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 x
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Cover Policy Papers
Adequacy of Fund Resources – Preliminary Considerations
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &amp
, and
Review Department
This paper provides background for initial considerations on the appropriate size of the Fund’s overall lending capacity over the medium term. The paper reviews developments in the demand for Fund resources during the global crisis. The paper also argues that the global economy is changing in fundamental ways, with implications for the size of the Fund. Against this background, the analysis suggests that the current overall lending capacity of the Fund should be seen as a minimum. Additional resources would be needed if the Fund were to introduce changes to its lending framework. While the financing structure of the Fund should be largely quota-based, staff sees a strong case for continuing to backstop quota resources with a standing borrowing facility. Maintaining the Fund’s current overall lending capacity would require swift action by the membership.
Keywords:
PP; Fund resource; lending capacity; fund financing; financing needs; quota resource; IMF financing increase; borrowed resource; Systemic crises; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Credit; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Estimating Potential Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia
Ms. Pritha Mitra
,
Amr Hosny
,
Gohar Abajyan
, and
Mr. Mark Fischer
The Middle East and Central Asia’s economic growth potential is slowing faster than in other emerging and developing regions, dampening hopes for reducing persistent unemployment and improving the region’s generally low living standards. Why? And is it possible to alter this course? This paper addresses these questions by estimating potential growth, examining its supply-side drivers, and assessing which of them could be most effective in raising potential growth. The analysis reveals that the region’s potential growth is expected to slow by ¾ of a percentage point more than the EMDC average over the next five years. The reasons behind this slowdown differ across the region. Lower productivity growth drives the slowdown in the Caucasus and Central Asia and is also weighing on growth across the Middle East (MENAP); while a lower labor contribution to potential growth is the main driver in MENAP. Moving forward, given some natural constraints on labor, total factor productivity growth is key to unlocking the region’s higher growth potential. For oil importers, raising physical capital accumulation through greater investment will also play an important role.
Keywords:
WP; oil importer; exporter; importer; oil exporter; physical capital; potential growth; productivity; output gap; production function; Middle East; Central Asia.; HP filter; physical capital accumulation; CCA oil importer; production function approach; IMF staff estimate; MENAP region; Oil; Total factor productivity; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Oil prices; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; central Asia1; growth in the Middle East; growth estimate; copyright page
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Global Financial Crisis: An Anatomy of Global Growth
Mr. Troy D Matheson
The global financial crisis was a stark reminder of the importance of cross-country linkages in the global economy. We document growth synchronization across a diverse group of 185 countries covering 7 regions, and pay particular attention to the period around the global financial crisis. A dynamic factor model is used to decompose each country’s growth into contributions from global, regional, and idiosyncratic shocks. We find a high degree of global synchronization over 1990 to 2011, particularly across advanced economies. Examining the period around the global financial crisis, we find global shocks had large and widespread effects on growth, with more diversity in growth experiences in the early part of the recovery. In a recursive experiment, we find rising global growth synchronization just prior to the crisis, largely resulting from a shift in the importance of global shocks between countries. In contrast, the crisis period caused a much more widespread increase in growth synchronization, and was followed by a similarly pervasive decrease in synchronization in the early recovery.
Keywords:
WP; simple time; Globalization; Financial Crisis; Growth Synchronization; crisis period; WEO estimate; standard deviation; country's growth; countries in Africa; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Potential output; Crisis resolution; Industrial sector; Global; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa; North Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time
Mr. Troy D Matheson
We develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle. In a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the indicators generally produce good GDP growth forecasts relative to a range of time series models.
Keywords:
WP; real GDP