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Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia

You are looking at 1 - 4 of 4 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Inflation Differentials in the GCC: Does the Oil Cycle Matter?
Mr. Oral Williams
and
Mr. Kamiar Mohaddes
This paper uses a pairwise approach to investigate the main factors that have been driving inflation differentials in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region for the past two decades. The results suggest that inflation differentials in the GCC are largely influenced by the oil cycle, mainly through the credit and fiscal channels. This implies that closer coordination of fiscal policies will be key for facilitating the closer integration of the GCC economies and ahead of the move to a monetary union. The results also indicate that after controlling for cyclical factors, convergence increased even during the recent oil boom.
Keywords:
WP; inflation differential; Inflation differentials; convergence; oil prices; panel data; pairwise approach; monetary union; Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.; credit growth differential; GCC inflation rates; weight differential; GCC country; Pairwise differential; differentials in the GCC; country inflation equation; oil revenue differential; inflation gap; government expenditure growth differential; rent weight differential; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Nominal effective exchange rate; Credit; Consumer price indexes; North Africa; Europe; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Commodity Windfalls, Polarization, and Net Foreign Assets: Panel Data Evidenceon the Voracity Effect
Markus Bruckner
and
Mr. Rabah Arezki
This paper examines the effect that windfalls from international commodity price booms have on net foreign assets in a panel of 145 countries during the period 1970-2007. The main finding is that windfalls from international commodity price booms lead to a significant increase in net foreign assets, but only in countries that are homogeneous. In polarized countries, net foreign assets significantly decreased. To explain this asymmetry, the paper shows that in polarized countries commodity windfalls lead to large increases in government spending, political corruption, and the risk of expropriation, with no overall effect on GDP per capita growth. The paper's findings are consistent with theoretical models of the current account that have a built-in voracity effect.
Keywords:
WP; commodity; revenue windfall; country; Commodity Windfalls; Net Foreign Assets; Polarization; Political Economy; commodity windfall; world commodity supply; exported commodity goods lead; hydrocarbon commodity price; commodity price boom; Foreign assets; Commodity prices; Export price indexes; Private investment; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Go Long or Short in Pyramids? News from the Egyptian Stock Market
Miss Isabella Massa
and
Mr. Andreas Billmeier
Similar to other emerging economies, the Egyptian stock market has recently experienced a remarkable run-up but also a major downturn. This paper analyzes the stock market from two angles. First, it compares the performance of the major stock price index with its underlying fundamentals. Second, it explores the relationship between the Egyptian and other stock markets. The paper finds that (i) there is some evidence against a stable relationship between the Egyptian index and its fundamental value; and (ii) short-term correlations and long-term cointegrating relations provide conflicting signals on the value of Egyptian stocks as a means of diversification.
Keywords:
WP; stock index; dividend yield; price index; U.S. dollar
Cover IMF Working Papers
IPO Behavior in GCC Countries: Goody-Two Shoes or Bad-to-the-Bone?
International Monetary Fund
This paper documents the phenomenon of underpricing initial public offerings (IPOs) for 47 firms that went public between 2001 and 2006 in the equity markets of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The average initial abnormal returns of 290 percent exceed those found in the existing literature for both developed and emerging markets IPOs. Although the IPOs' returns over the one-year horizon beat the market index benchmark, they present negative abnormal returns once initial returns are excluded, which is consistent with findings in other industrial and emerging markets. The empirical models reject the hypothesis that the IPOs' performance is driven by the common independent variables employed in the literature. On the contrary, in the case of the GCC, country- and industry-specific characteristics, in addition to the timing of the offers, play key roles in explaining the abnormal returns of IPOs. This paper's empirical findings support the hypothesis that investors initially tend to be over-optimistic about the performance of IPOs, but grow more pessimistic over time.
Keywords:
WP; aftermarket abnormal returns; bull market; market index