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Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia

You are looking at 1 - 4 of 4 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Policy and Spillover Analysis in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach
Mr. Francis Vitek
This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into forty national economies. This panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages, and diverse spillover transmission channels. A variety of monetary policy analysis, fiscal policy analysis, spillover analysis, and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated. These include quantifying the monetary and fiscal transmission mechanisms, accounting for business cycle fluctuations, and generating relatively accurate forecasts of inflation and output growth.
Keywords:
WP; Monetary policy analysis; Fiscal policy analysis; Spillover analysis; Forecasting; World economy; Panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model; Bayesian econometrics; price inflation; shadow price; recipient economy; constant returns to scale; marginal revenue; stochastic process; utility function; Phillips curve; financial asset; risk premium shock; markup shock; production function; Consumption; Terms of trade; Return on investment; Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; Inflation; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time
Mr. Troy D Matheson
We develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle. In a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the indicators generally produce good GDP growth forecasts relative to a range of time series models.
Keywords:
WP; real GDP
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Long-Run Effects of Tradeon Income and Income Growth
Mr. Allan D. Brunner
This paper examines the dynamic relationship between trade and income. While most economists agree that increased trade leads to an increase in average income, economic theory is ambiguous about the possible effects on the long-run growth rate of the economy. Using a dynamic panel data model, the hypotheses of no long-run effects of trade on income and on income growth are tested explicitly. The possibility of endogeneity is addressed by constructing an instrument for trade by extending Frankel and Romer's (1999) cross-sectional approach to the case of a panel data model. The empirical results indicate that trade has a large and significant effect on the level of income, but the effect on income growth is small and non-robust to model specification.
Keywords:
WP; panel data model; trade liberalization; economic growth; economic development; trade share; income growth; trade openness; trade-output relationship; constructed trade instrument; instrument specification; effects of trade; Personal income; Plurilateral trade; Agroindustries; Estimation techniques; North America; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Intra-Arab Trade: Is it too Little?
Tarik Yousef
and
Mr. Hassan Al-Atrash
This paper estimates a gravity model to address the issue of whether intra-Arab trade is too little. Although gravity models have been extensively used to measure bilateral trade among countries, they have—to the best of our knowledge—never been used to measure intra-Arab trade. Our results suggest that intra-Arab trade and Arab trade with the rest of the world are lower than what would be predicted by the gravity equation, suggesting considerable scope for regional—as well as multilateral—integration. The results also suggest that intra-GCC and intra-Maghreb trade are relatively low while the Mashreq countries exhibit a higher level of intragroup trade.
Keywords:
WP; trade creation; Arab country; Arab countries; gravity model; trade; Mashreq country; trade diversion effect; reporting country; Andean Pact country; GCC country; oil-producing country; trade restrictiveness index; Exports; Imports; Gravity models; Trade barriers; Trade balance; Maghreb