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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) discusses economic prospects and policy priorities for the GCC countries. A comprehensive package of policies should be implemented to respond to near-term shocks and uncertainty and to firmly address medium- and long-term challenges. In the near term, fiscal policy should remain prudent, avoiding procyclical spending and using the windfall from higher oil prices to rebuild buffers. Targeted and temporary fiscal measures could be undertaken to respond to shocks, if they materialize. In the medium term, GCC countries should continue pursuing fiscal consolidation consistent with ensuring intergenerational equity and sustainability, supported by a credible rules-based medium-term fiscal framework. Continued financial sector reforms are needed to support growth and stability. Structural policies should continue focusing on diversifying the economies away from hydrocarbon. Reform efforts aimed at further enhancing product market regulations, labor markets, and governance will spur growth, as will efficient investments in digital and green initiatives to accelerate transformation and support energy transition. The industrial policy should be carefully calibrated and not substitute for structural reforms while minimizing related inefficiencies.
Abdullah Al-Hassan
,
Imen Benmohamed
,
Aidyn Bibolov
,
Giovanni Ugazio
, and
Ms. Tian Zhang
The Gulf Cooperation Council region faced a significant economic toll from the COVID-19 pandemic and oil price shocks in 2020. Policymakers responded to the pandemic with decisive and broad measures to support households and businesses and mitigate the long-term impact on the economy. Financial vulnerabilities have been generally contained, reflecting ongoing policy support and the rebound in economic activity and oil prices, as well as banks entering the COVID-19 crisis with strong capital, liquidity, and profitability. The banking systems remained well-capitalized, but profitability and asset quality were adversely affected. Ongoing COVID-19 policy support could also obscure deterioration in asset quality. Policymakers need to continue to strike a balance between supporting recovery and mitigating risks to financial stability, including ensuring that banks’ buffers are adequate to withstand prolonged pandemic and withdrawal of COVID-related policy support measures. Addressing data gaps would help policymakers to further assess vulnerabilities and mitigate sectoral risks.
Mr. Ernesto Ramirez Rigo
,
Christine J. Richmond
,
Oluremi Akin Olugbade
,
Gareth Anderson
,
Maria Atamanchuk
,
Mr. Hatim Bukhari
,
Iacovos Ioannou
,
Deeksha Kale
,
Tannous Kass-Hanna
,
Mr. Maximilien Queyranne
,
Wei Shi
, and
Joyce Wong
Prior to the COVID-19 shock, the key challenge facing policymakers in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia region was how to generate strong, sustainable, job-rich, inclusive growth. Post-COVID-19, this challenge has only grown given the additional reduction in fiscal space due to the crisis and the increased need to support the recovery. The sizable state-owned enterprise (SOE) footprint in the region, together with its cost to the government, call for revisiting the SOE sector to help open fiscal space and look for growth opportunities.
Mr. Ernesto Ramirez Rigo
,
Christine J. Richmond
,
Oluremi Akin Olugbade
,
Gareth Anderson
,
Maria Atamanchuk
,
Mr. Hatim Bukhari
,
Iacovos Ioannou
,
Deeksha Kale
,
Tannous Kass-Hanna
,
Mr. Maximilien Queyranne
,
Wei Shi
, and
Joyce Wong
Prior to the COVID-19 shock, the key challenge facing policymakers in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia region was how to generate strong, sustainable, job-rich, inclusive growth. Post-COVID-19, this challenge has only grown given the additional reduction in fiscal space due to the crisis and the increased need to support the recovery. The sizable state-owned enterprise (SOE) footprint in the region, together with its cost to the government, call for revisiting the SOE sector to help open fiscal space and look for growth opportunities.
Mr. Ernesto Ramirez Rigo
,
Christine J. Richmond
,
Oluremi Akin Olugbade
,
Gareth Anderson
,
Maria Atamanchuk
,
Mr. Hatim Bukhari
,
Iacovos Ioannou
,
Deeksha Kale
,
Tannous Kass-Hanna
,
Mr. Maximilien Queyranne
,
Wei Shi
, and
Joyce Wong
Prior to the COVID-19 shock, the key challenge facing policymakers in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia region was how to generate strong, sustainable, job-rich, inclusive growth. Post-COVID-19, this challenge has only grown given the additional reduction in fiscal space due to the crisis and the increased need to support the recovery. The sizable state-owned enterprise (SOE) footprint in the region, together with its cost to the government, call for revisiting the SOE sector to help open fiscal space and look for growth opportunities.
Patrick Blagrave
and
Mr. Fabien Gonguet
Current fiscal transparency and reporting practices in India place it behind most peer G20 economies, implying that policy makers are lacking critical data to ground their fiscal and other economic planning decisions. The increasing use of off-budget financing at the central government level in recent years represents one key example of reduced transparency—we provide estimates of the public sector borrowing requirement and an extended notion of the fiscal deficit, each of which shows a more expansionary stance in recent years than ‘headline’ deficit figures presented in budget documents. We then investigate the current state of fiscal reporting practices in India and suggest areas for reforms—these include enhanced IT systems, stronger central-local coordination, and a gradual transition to accrual accounting.
Abdullah Al-Hassan
,
Sue Brake
,
Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou
, and
Martin Skancke
Commodity-based sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have been at a crossroads following the recent fall in commodity prices. This paper provides a framework for commodity-based SWF management, focusing on stabilization and savings funds, by (i) examining macrofiscal linkages for SWFs; (ii) presenting an integrated sovereign asset and liability management (SALM) approach to SWF management; and (iii) applying this framework to a scenario where assets are being accumulated and to a scenario where the SWF is drawn on to cover a financing gap due to lower commodity prices.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The audited consolidated financial statements of the International Monetary Fund as of April 30, 2017 and 2016 include the related consolidated statements of comprehensive income, of changes in reserves, resources, and retained earnings, and of cash flows for the years then ended. The IMF’s financial statements were audited by external auditing firm PricewaterhouseCoopers, LLC, which certified that they were prepared and presented in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board. The standards include the design, implementation, and maintenance of internal control relevant to the preparation and fair presentation of consolidated financial statements that are free from material misstatement, whether due to fraud or error.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper outlines that the IMF is exposed to various types of operational and financial risks, including credit, market, liquidity, and income risks. The Executive Board of the IMF has overall responsibility for the establishment and oversight of the IMF’s risk management framework. The risk management framework encompasses primarily strategic, financial, and operational risks. As part of this framework, the Advisory Committee on Risk Management (ACRM) has been established to analyze, synthesize, and report on risks. Credit risk on credit outstanding refers to potential losses owing to the failure of member countries to make repurchases. Credit risk is inherent in the IMF's unique role in the international monetary system since the IMF has limited ability to diversify its loan portfolio and generally provides financing when other sources are not available to a member. Measures to help mitigate the IMF's credit risk include policies on access limits, program design, monitoring, and economic policies that members agree to follow as a condition for IMF financing; early repurchase policies; and preventative, precautionary, remedial measures and precautionary balances to cope with the financial consequences of protracted arrears.

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

The global economy remains fragile at this time. While the recovery in advanced economies is softening, many emerging market and developing economies have experienced a significant economic slowdown, and some large countries show signs of distress. Global risk aversion has risen, and commodity prices have continued to fall since the April 2015 Fiscal Monitor. The weaker outlook and concerns about the ability of policymakers to provide an adequate and swift policy response have amplified downward risks and clouded global prospects. According to this issue of the Fiscal Monitor, the challenging environment calls for a comprehensive policy response to boost growth and reduce vulnerabilities. In particular, it is critical to identify policies that could lift productivity growth by promoting innovation. Fiscal policy can play an important role in stimulating innovation through its effects on research and development, entrepreneurship, and technology transfer.