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International Monetary Fund. Office of Budget and Planning
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund approved the 2025-27 financial years (FY25-27) medium-term budget. While the global economy has shown resilience to successive adverse shocks, the overall global economic context remains complex with slow and uneven growth, increased fragmentation, deepening divergence, and still high interest rates despite easing inflationary pressures. Against this backdrop, the FY25-27 budget continues to be guided by principles of agility and budget discipline, reinforced by ongoing reprioritization and savings capture. It also builds on strong cooperation with other institutions, ensuring the Fund continues to focus on areas within its mandate, even as it addresses new demands. Work to strengthen internal operations also continue, focusing on both efficiency and effectiveness in meeting changing needs in the post-pandemic workplace, where rapid technological changes are underway. With significant demands within a constrained budget environment, the budget reflects difficult tradeoffs.
Virginia Alonso-Albarran
,
Ms. Teresa R Curristine
,
Gemma Preston
,
Alberto Soler
,
Nino Tchelishvili
, and
Sureni Weerathunga
Achieving gender equality remains a significant challenge, that has only deepened with the on-set of the COVID-19 pandemic. Gender budgeting (GB) can help promote gender equality by applying a gender perspective to fiscal policies and the budget process. This paper takes stock of GB practices in G20 countries and benchmarks country performance using a GB index and data gathered from an IMF survey. All G20 countries have enacted gender focused fiscal policies but the public financial management (PFM) tools to operationalize these policies are far less established. We find that notwithstanding heterogeneity across countries, the average G20 level of GB practice is relatively low. More progress has been made establishing GB frameworks and budget preparation tools than with budget execution, monitoring and auditing. Too few countries assess the upfront impact of policies on gender and/or evaluate ex-post the effectiveness of policies and programs. Where GB features are in place, they tend to operate as an ‘add-on’, rather than a strategic and integral part of resource allocation decisions. Progress with GB does not appear to be dependent on the level of country development. Key to future efforts will be harnessing opportunities for integrating GB tools into existing PFM systems and more closely linking GB initiatives with PFM reforms.
Patrick Blagrave
and
Mr. Fabien Gonguet
Current fiscal transparency and reporting practices in India place it behind most peer G20 economies, implying that policy makers are lacking critical data to ground their fiscal and other economic planning decisions. The increasing use of off-budget financing at the central government level in recent years represents one key example of reduced transparency—we provide estimates of the public sector borrowing requirement and an extended notion of the fiscal deficit, each of which shows a more expansionary stance in recent years than ‘headline’ deficit figures presented in budget documents. We then investigate the current state of fiscal reporting practices in India and suggest areas for reforms—these include enhanced IT systems, stronger central-local coordination, and a gradual transition to accrual accounting.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Pakistan’s First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Pakistan’s program is on track and has started to bear fruit. However, risks remain elevated. Strong ownership and steadfast reform implementation are critical to entrench macroeconomic stability and support robust and balanced growth. The authorities are committed to sustaining the progress on fiscal adjustment to place debt on a downward path. The planned reforms include strengthening tax revenue mobilization, including the elimination of tax exemptions and loopholes, and prudent expenditure policies. Preparations for a comprehensive tax policy reform should start early to ensure timely implementation. The authorities have adopted a comprehensive plan to address the accumulation of arrears in the power sector. Its full implementation is key to improve collection, reduce losses, and enhance governance. Timely and regular adjustment of energy tariffs will bring the sector in line with cost recovery.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Saudi Arabia discusses that reforms are starting to yield positive results. Oil prices and production have been volatile, and uncertainties in the global oil market continue. Promoting non-oil growth and creating jobs for Saudi nationals remain key challenges. Non-oil growth is expected to strengthen further this year and over the medium term. Risks to the growth outlook are broadly balanced. The fiscal deficit declined in 2018; however, higher government spending has increased medium-term fiscal vulnerabilities to a decline in oil prices. Fiscal consolidation is needed to reduce these vulnerabilities. The fiscal framework should be further strengthened to help reduce the procyclicality of government spending. Reforms to improve the business environment are proceeding but need to be complemented by efforts to increase the cost competitiveness of Saudi labor. Government support to develop sectors of the economy should crowd in the private sector and be timebound and linked to performance.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
President Touadéra signed a new peace agreement on February 6, 2019 with 14 armed groups. This agreement calls for the establishment of an inclusive government, the deployment of joint brigades, an acceleration of decentralization efforts, and the co-management of natural resources. While its implementation has started, including with the appointment of more inclusive government, the security situation remains volatile. The World Bank (WB) and the European Union (EU) have substantially increased their budgetary support (grants) for 2019–20. The authorities have expressed a strong interest in a successor arrangement.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
President Touadéra signed a new peace agreement on February 6, 2019 with 14 armed groups. This agreement calls for the establishment of an inclusive government, the deployment of joint brigades, an acceleration of decentralization efforts, and the co-management of natural resources. While its implementation has started, including with the appointment of more inclusive government, the security situation remains volatile. The World Bank (WB) and the European Union (EU) have substantially increased their budgetary support (grants) for 2019–20. The authorities have expressed a strong interest in a successor arrangement.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Pakistan’s economy is at a critical juncture. Misaligned economic policies, including large fiscal deficits, loose monetary policy, and defense of an overvalued exchange rate, fueled consumption and short-term growth in recent years, but steadily eroded macroeconomic buffers, increased external and public debt, and depleted international reserves. Structural weaknesses remained largely unaddressed, including a chronically weak tax administration, a difficult business environment, inefficient and loss making SOEs, and low labor productivity amid a large informal economy. Without urgent policy action, economic and financial stability could be at risk, and growth prospects will be insufficient to meet the needs of a rapidly growing population.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on policies to drive diversification for Qatar. Diversification is important for a large commodity exporter like Qatar: it helps manage temporary shocks and prepare for sweeping changes to the economic setting. Qatar’s large financial holdings can help diversify revenues. Both structural reforms to improve the business environment and sector-specific policies can support diversification of activity and exports. Sector-specific policies should build on existing economic strengths in areas with room for exports and innovation. Emphasis should be placed on developing expertise in specific clusters. Export markets and competition provide crucial mechanisms to ensure discipline. Further diversification is important to help Qatar manage temporary shocks and prepare for far-reaching shifts to the economic context. Well-targeted, structured, and sequenced policies to encourage specific sectors can also play a role in diversifying Qatar’s economy. Export markets and competition should be deliberately used to hold recipients of support accountable. Policies to encourage specific sectors have resulted in little more than inefficient import substitution in many countries. Avoiding this outcome requires discipline: support should be withdrawn in the absence of progress.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Reform momentum remains strong under Vision 2030. New reform initiatives are being rolled-out under the Vision Realization Programs (VRPs). Oil prices have risen over the past year and are positively affecting fiscal and external balances. Higher oil prices provide both an opportunity and a risk to the fiscal reforms.