Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia

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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Pakistan has taken key steps to restoring economic stability with consistent policy implementation under the 2023–2024 Stand-by Arrangement (SBA). The discussions focused on Pakistan’s medium-term prospects, which helped inform policies and define program objectives. The new government formed after the February elections has continued efforts to strengthen economic conditions and is embarking on a multi-year home-grown reform program to achieve resilient and inclusive economic growth. The program aims to reinforce the authorities’ efforts to bolster policy credibility and entrench stability and accelerate structural reforms to strengthen public finances, improve the provision of critical public services, and create a favorable environment for private-led growth.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Saudi Arabia’s unprecedented economic transformation is progressing well. Strong domestic demand is keeping non-oil growth robust while unemployment is at record lows. Inflation is contained and the current account surplus is rapidly narrowing. The recalibration of the authorities’ investment plans would help reduce overheating risks and pressures on fiscal and external accounts.
International Monetary Fund
The paper aims to provide a conceptual framework and guiding principles for the coverage of Industrial Policy (IP) in IMF surveillance. It proposes a working definition of industrial policy, discusses its objectives and main instruments, and provides a brief review of academic literature on IP. The paper discusses the four broad sets of considerations for assessing IP: justification, design, cost-benefit assessment, and implementation. It stresses that IP should be covered in IMF surveillance when it is deemed macro-critical and/or has the potential to generate significant cross-border spillovers. The paper also discusses specific aspects of industrial policies, including trade-related IP, green IP, Special Economic Zones (SEZs), and State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), and provides examples of the IP coverage in the Article IV consultations with China, Euro Area, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and the United States.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that Saudi Arabia was the fastest growing G20 economy in 2022. The Saudi unemployment rate is at a historical low. Amid an increase in labor force participation, total unemployment dropped to 4.8 percent by end-2022—from 9 percent during Covid—reflecting both an increase in Saudi workers in the private sector and expatriate workers (mostly in the construction and agricultural sectors) rising back above pre-Covid levels. Non-oil gross domestic product growth momentum is expected to remain strong, as strong consumption spending and accelerated project implementation boost demand. Careful calibration of investment programs is needed to ensure catalytic effects and avoid crowding out the private sector. The industrial policy agenda should be supporting structural reform efforts, with guardrails put in place to minimize inefficiencies. Fully implementing the Green Initiative is necessary to help Saudi Arabia meet its net zero emissions target.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper highlights Burundi’s Request for a 38-Month Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). Burundi faces protracted balance of payments needs with a widening current account deficit and low foreign reserves coverage, large development needs, and macroeconomic challenges triggered by spillovers from the war in Ukraine and domestic climate shocks and livestock sanitary crisis. The 38-month arrangement under the ECF will help cushion Burundi’s adjustment and support the authorities’ reform agenda aimed at reducing debt vulnerabilities, recalibrating exchange rate and monetary policies to restore external sustainability, and strengthening inclusive economic growth and governance. Under the ECF arrangement, the authorities aim to recalibrate Burundi’s macroeconomic policy mix. They plan to restore external sustainability with the unification of the official and parallel exchange rate markets and foreign exchange market liberalization, while being attuned to financial sector vulnerabilities. They will strengthen debt sustainability and achieve a better-quality fiscal consolidation path through higher domestic revenue mobilization, scaled-up investment and better targeted spending, and prudent borrowing.
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

Capacity development (CD) is a key function of the IMF, aiming to assist its member countries develop their institutional and human capacity to design and implement sound macroeconomic and financial policies. CD has been provided to all IMF member countries at some point, although it is directed mainly toward low- and middle-income countries. CD represents about one-third of the IMF’s administrative budget, having expanded substantially in the past decade. This evaluation assesses how effective the IMF has been in meeting the CD needs and expectations of recipient countries, and the Fund’s institutional objectives for CD, during 2012-20. It also provides an initial review of how IMF CD adapted to the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. The evaluation finds that IMF CD was relevant, valued, and broadly effective. Recipients, donors, and the wider membership saw IMF CD as being of the highest technical quality in the Fund’s core areas of expertise and generally perceived that it had become better tailored to recipient needs and circumstances. Overall, Fund CD has supported member countries in building the institutional capacity, in a very wide range of country circumstances. The IMF has also put substantial effort into integrating CD with surveillance and programs, which has in general enhanced its overall engagement with member countries. While recognizing these achievements, the evaluation also identifies a number of important shortcomings and challenges. The evaluation includes recommendations to enhance the strategic framework for, and prioritization of, CD; information available to Executive Directors and opportunities to exercise their oversight role; the integration of CD with surveillance and programs, particularly in the context of programs; CD ownership and delivery; the monitoring and evaluation framework; the sustainability of the CD funding model; and HR policies and incentives to maintain and develop the expertise in the Fund’s core and newly emerging CD topics.

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Saudi Arabia is recovering strongly from the pandemic-induced recession. Higher oil prices provide an opportunity for accelerating further the strong reform drive brought about under Vision 2030.
Ms. Genevieve Verdier
,
Brett Rayner
,
Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora
,
Charles Vellutini
,
Ling Zhu
,
Vincent de Paul Koukpaizan
,
Alireza Marahel
,
Mahmoud Harb
,
Imen Benmohamed
,
Mr. Shafik Hebous
,
Andrew Okello
,
Nathalie Reyes
,
Thomas Benninger
, and
Bernard Sanya
Domestic revenue mobilization has been a longstanding challenge for countries in the Middle East and Central Asia. Insufficient revenue has often constrained priority social and infrastructure spending, reducing countries’ ability to reach the Sustainable Development Goals, improve growth prospects, and address climate related challenges. Moreover, revenue shortfalls have often been compensated by large and sustained debt accumulation, raising vulnerabilities in some countries, and limiting fiscal space to address future shocks. The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have compounded challenges to sustainable public finances, underscoring the need for revenue mobilization efforts. The recent global crises have also exacerbated existing societal inequalities and highlighted the importance of raising revenues in an efficient and equitable manner. This paper examines the scope for additional tax revenue mobilization and discusses policies to gradually raise tax revenue while supporting resilient growth and inclusion in the Middle East and Central Asia. The paper’s main findings are that excluding hydrocarbon revenues, the region’s average tax intake lags those of other regions; the region’s fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS) face particular challenges in mobilizing tax revenue; In general, there is considerable scope to raise additional tax revenue; countries have made efforts to raise tax collection, but challenges remain; tax policy design, notably low tax rates and pervasive tax exemptions, is an important factor driving tax revenue shortfalls; weak tax compliance, reflecting both structural features and challenges in revenue administration, also plays a role; and personal income tax systems in the region vary in their progressivity—the extent to which the average tax rate increases with income—and in their ability to redistribute income. These findings provide insights for policy action to raise revenue while supporting resilient growth and inclusion. The paper’s analysis points to these priorities for the region to improve both efficiency and equity of tax systems: improving tax policy design to broaden the tax base and increase progressivity and redistributive capacity; strengthening revenue administration to improve compliance; and implementing structural reforms to incentivize tax compliance, formalization, and economic diversification.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The Covid-19 pandemic had a substantial impact on C.A.R.’s economy but appears now somewhat contained. The number of positive cases and related deaths has been very limited over the last few months, even though most containment measures have been progressively loosened. Despite some progress since the February 2019 peace agreement, the security situation remains precarious. Despite some delays in voter registration, the first round of the presidential and general elections is still scheduled on December 27.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Pakistan’s First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Pakistan’s program is on track and has started to bear fruit. However, risks remain elevated. Strong ownership and steadfast reform implementation are critical to entrench macroeconomic stability and support robust and balanced growth. The authorities are committed to sustaining the progress on fiscal adjustment to place debt on a downward path. The planned reforms include strengthening tax revenue mobilization, including the elimination of tax exemptions and loopholes, and prudent expenditure policies. Preparations for a comprehensive tax policy reform should start early to ensure timely implementation. The authorities have adopted a comprehensive plan to address the accumulation of arrears in the power sector. Its full implementation is key to improve collection, reduce losses, and enhance governance. Timely and regular adjustment of energy tariffs will bring the sector in line with cost recovery.