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Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 22 items for :

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Cover Law & Financial Stability
Law & Financial Stability
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.

Abstract

This volume comprises a selection of papers prepared in connection with a high-level seminar on Law and Financial Stability held at the IMF in 2016. It examines, from a legal perspective, the progress made in implementing the financial regulatory reforms adopted since the global financial crisis and highlights the role of the IMF in advancing these reforms and charting the course for a future reform agenda, including the development of a coherent international policy framework for resolution and resolution planning. The book’s unique perspective on the role of the law in promoting financial stability comes from the contribution of selected experts and representatives from our membership who share their views on this subject.

Keywords:
BOOK; bank; authority; central bank; enterprise; CCP participant; insolvency regime; enterprise group; risk management decision; IFSB standard; Bank resolution framework; Islamic banking; Financial sector stability; Bank resolution; Central counterparty clearing house; Global; Caribbean; Europe; Western Hemisphere; Sub-Saharan Africa; resolution authority; financial crisis; bank holding company
Cover IMF Working Papers
Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models
Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh
,
Samy Ben Naceur
,
Mr. Oussama Kanaan
, and
Christophe Rault
Our paper examines the effect of oil price changes on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets using nonlinear smooth transition regression (STR) models. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our empirical results reveal that GCC stock markets do not have similar sensitivities to oil price changes. We document the presence of stock market returns’ asymmetric reactions in some GCC countries, but not for others. In Kuwait’s case, negative oil price changes exert larger impacts on stock returns than positive oil price changes. When considering the asymmetry with respect to the magnitude of oil price variation, we find that Oman’s and Qatar’s stock markets are more sensitive to large oil price changes than to small ones. Our results highlight the importance of economic stabilization and reform policies that can potentially reduce the sensitivity of stock returns to oil price changes, especially with regard to the existence of asymmetric behavior.
Keywords:
WP; oil price change; GCC country; correlation coefficient; GCC stock markets; oil prices; smooth transition regression models; GCC stock price volatility; hedging strategy; Stock markets; Asset prices; Oil; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Commodity-based Sovereign Wealth Funds: Managing Financial Flows in the Context of the Sovereign Balance Sheet
Abdullah Al-Hassan
,
Sue Brake
,
Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou
, and
Martin Skancke
Commodity-based sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have been at a crossroads following the recent fall in commodity prices. This paper provides a framework for commodity-based SWF management, focusing on stabilization and savings funds, by (i) examining macrofiscal linkages for SWFs; (ii) presenting an integrated sovereign asset and liability management (SALM) approach to SWF management; and (iii) applying this framework to a scenario where assets are being accumulated and to a scenario where the SWF is drawn on to cover a financing gap due to lower commodity prices.
Keywords:
WP; asset; price; financial asset; liquidity; commodity; sovereign wealth funds; sovereign asset and liability management; financing gap; investment management; risk management; macroeconomic coordination; SWF assets; SWF management; investment strategy; asset accumulation; net asset position; SWF balance sheet; asset allocation perspective; negative carry; SWF inflow; SWF performance; SWF owner country; opportunity cost; Financial statements; Government debt management; Government asset and liability management; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Sector Debt Bias
Ms. Oana Luca
and
Alexander F. Tieman
Most tax systems create a tax bias toward debt finance. Such debt bias increases leverage and may negatively affect financial stability. This paper models and estimates debt bias in the financial sector, and present novel estimates for investment banks and non-bank financial intermediaries such as finance and insurance companies. We find debt bias to be pervasive, explaining as much as 10 percent of total leverage for regular banks and 20 percent for investment banks, with the effects most pronounced before the global financial crisis. Going forward, debt bias is likely to once again gain prominence as a key driver of leverage decisions, underscoring the importance of policy reform at this juncture.
Keywords:
WP; oil price; interest rate; Oil prices; equity prices; dividends; economic growth; oil supply; global oil markets; international business cycle.; equity price; standard error band; term interest rate; price relationship; price fall; oil price shock; oil price coefficient; Oil; Oil production; Stocks; Long term interest rates; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Oil Prices and the Global Economy: Is It Different This Time Around?
Mr. Kamiar Mohaddes
and
M. Hashem Pesaran
The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the United States and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower interest rates and inflation in most countries, and increase global real equity prices. The effects on real output are positive, although they take longer to materialize (around four quarters after the shock). We then re-examine the effects of low oil prices on the U.S. economy over different sub-periods using monthly observations on real oil prices, real equity prices and real dividends. We confirm the perverse positive relationship between oil and equity prices over the period since the 2008 financial crisis highlighted in the recent literature, but show that this relationship has been unstable when considered over the longer time period of 1946–2016. In contrast, we find a stable negative relationship between oil prices and real dividends which we argue is a better proxy for economic activity (as compared to equity prices). On the supply side, the effects of lower oil prices differ widely across the different oil producers, and could be perverse initially, as some of the major oil producers try to compensate their loss of revenues by raising production. Taking demand and supply adjustments to oil price changes as a whole, we conclude that oil markets equilibrate but rather slowly, with large episodic swings between low and high oil prices.
Keywords:
WP; oil price; Oil prices; equity prices; dividends; economic growth; oil supply; global oil markets; international business cycle; equity price; standard error band; price relationship; oil price shock; oil price coefficient; oil price variable; term interest rate; oil price volatility; price coefficient; real oil price; rate of change; Oil; Oil production; Stocks; Long term interest rates; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
An Analysis of OPEC’s Strategic Actions, US Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash
Mr. Alberto Behar
and
Robert A Ritz
In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a "regime switch" by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv) production ramp-ups in other non-OPEC countries. We show that these qualitative predictions are broadly consistent with oil market developments during 2014-15. The model is calibrated to oil market data; it predicts accommodation up to 2014 and a market-share strategy thereafter, and explains large oil-price swings as well as realistically high levels of OPEC output.
Keywords:
WP; market share; OPEC supply; production capacity; market power; Crude oil; OPEC; price crash; shale oil; limit pricing; regime switch; OPEC producer; OPEC capacity; OPEC statistics; Oil prices; Oil; Demand elasticity; Futures; Public expenditure review; Global; oil price crash; shale growth; calibration approach; oil supply and demand growth; strategic action; Oil consumption; Oil production
Cover IMF Working Papers
An Empirical Investigation of Oil-Macro-Financial Linkages in Saudi Arabia
Mr. Ken Miyajima
Oil-macro-financial linkages in Saudi Arabia are analyzed by applying panel econometric frameworks (multivariate and vector autoregression) to maceoeconomic and bank-level balance sheet data for 9 banks spanning 1999–2014. Lower growth of oil prices and non-oil private sector output leads to slower credit and deposit growth and higher nonperforming loan ratios, with feedback loops within bank balance sheets which in turn dampens economic activity. U.S. interest rates are not found to be a key determinant.
Keywords:
WP; price; bank; private sector; NPL ratio; Macro-financial linkages; nonperforming loans; panel vector autoregression; oil price; price growth; Brent crude; bank npls; solvency risk; equity price; Oil prices; Credit; Financial statements; Stocks; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Eastern Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Credit Constraints, Political Instability, and Capital Accumulation
Risto Herrala
and
Ms. Rima A Turk
We investigate the complex interactions between credit constraints, political instability, and capital accumulation using a novel approach based on Kiyotaki and Moore’s (1997) theoretical framework. Drawing on a unique firm-level data set from Middle-East and North Africa (MENA), empirical findings point to a large and significant effect of credit conditions on capital accumulation and suggest that continued political unrest worsens credit constraints. The results support the view that financial development measured by a relaxing of financial constraints is key to macroeconomic development.
Keywords:
WP; credit limit; firm; equity capital; Capital accumulation; credit constraints; political unrest; MENA countries; firm's fixed assets; firm investment behavior; credit constraint; enterprise development; firm Age; debt amount; Credit ceilings; Credit; Real interest rates; Stocks; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Saudi Arabia: Financial Sector Assessment Program Update—Detailed Assessment of Observance of the IOSCO Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper discusses Saudi Arabia’s Detailed Assessment of the Observance of the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) objectives and principles of securities regulation. The Capital Market Authority (CMA) has made significant progress in establishing its supervision credentials, including issuing implementing regulations. The CMA has also entered into information sharing arrangements with other regulators in the region, and is a party to the IOSCO Multilateral Memorandum of Understanding Concerning Consultation, and Cooperation, and the Exchange of Information. The equity market in Saudi Arabia is of significant size, but has undergone significant change following the events of 2006 and the establishment of the CMA.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CMA staff; CMA Board; investment fund; capital market; CMA regulation; fund manager; insider trading; net capital; securities business; corporate governance; terms and conditions; CMA approval; CMA review; enforcement power; Securities; Mutual funds; Financial statements; Capital adequacy requirements; Trade systems; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Saudi Arabia: Financial Sector Assessment Program Update—Detailed Assessment of Observance of the CPSS Core Principles for Systemically Important Payment Systems
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper highlights the Saudi Arabia’s Detailed Assessment of Observance of the Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems Core Principles for systemically important payment systems. The Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) is working to establish its payment system oversight function from an operational perspective. The power of SAMA to oversee the payment systems is stated in the central bank and banking laws. The powers of the central bank to operate, regulate, and oversee the payment systems are not detailed in the law and could be also covered by the proposed Payment System Law. Many critical aspects relating to the payment and securities settlement systems are covered in the legal framework.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; payment system; SARIE system; central bank; gateway application; SAMA oversight authority; cheque clearing process; direct debit; SARIE participant; automated teller machine; SARIE operation; oversight function; payment card; SPAN system; SARIE system place; SIPS Saudi Arabian Riyal Inter-bank Express; Payment systems; Securities; Securities settlement systems; Real time gross settlement systems; Operational risk; Global