Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 10 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Economic Integration x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, April 2024
Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, April 2024
An Uneven Recovery amid High Uncertainty
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

The Middle East and North Africa and the Caucasus and Central Asia regions are positively impacted by the resilience of the global economy. Lower global commodity prices and vigilant policy responses have helped ease inflation in most countries. However, uncertainty and risks have risen amid ongoing conflicts, shipping disruptions, and reduced oil production. This is leading to an uneven recovery across the Middle East and Central Asia, with growth rates varying this year. Policymakers need to ensure economic stability and debt sustainability while navigating geopolitical risks and improving medium-term growth prospects. Amid high uncertainty, it is essential that countries implement reforms to enhance their fundamentals, including by strengthening institutions. Additionally, countries can seize potential economic opportunities amid shifting trade patterns by reducing long-standing trade barriers, diversifying products and markets, and improving infrastructure.

Keywords:
Trade; trade disruptions; trade diversion; trade dynamics; conflict; geoeconomic fragmentation; global value chains; policy actions; IMF staff calculation; MENA country; ME&CA economy; heightened transit trade diversion; oil exporter; trade diversion reshaping trade; headline inflation; Current account balance; Trade balance; Fiscal stance; Exports; Inflation; Middle East and Central Asia; Middle East; Central Asia and the Caucasus; North Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to GCC Countries: Do Oil Prices Matter?
Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji
,
Mr. Erik Roos
,
Mr. Sohaib Shahid
, and
Ling Zhu
This paper provides empirical evidence that the size of the spillovers from U.S. monetary policy to non-oil GDP growth in the GCC countries depends on the level of oil prices. The potential channels through which oil prices could affect the effectiveness of monetary policy are discussed. We find that the level of oil prices tends to dampen or amplify the growth impact of changes in U.S. monetary policy on the non-oil economies in the GCC.
Keywords:
WP; oil price; price; federal funds rate; GCC.; Growth; Gulf Corporation Council; Spillovers; U.S. Monetary Policy; liquidity fluctuation; monetary policy spillover; GCC country; interaction term; Oil prices; Real interest rates; Central bank policy rate; Liquidity; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Saudi’s Growth and Financial Spillovers to Other GCC Countries: An Empirical Analysis
Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji
,
Mr. Sohaib Shahid
, and
Ling Zhu
This paper examines real and financial linkages between Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries. Growth spillovers from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain are found to be sizeable and statistically significant, but those to other GCC countries are not found to be significant. Equity market movements in Saudi Arabia are found to have significant implications for other GCC countries, while there is no evidence of co-movements in bonds markets. These findings suggest some degree of interdependence among GCC countries.
Keywords:
WP; GCC country; GCC sovereign bond market spillover; Growth; Gulf Corporation Council; Spillovers; growth shock; equity market movement; GCC bond spread; GCC equity; Stock markets; Yield curve; Sovereign bonds; Oil prices; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Spillovers to Low-Income Countries: Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
,
Mr. Raphael A Espinoza
, and
Mrs. Sarwat Jahan
This paper documents the expanding economic linkages between low-income countries (LICs) and a narrow group of "Emerging Market leaders" that have become major players in regional and global trade and financial flows. VAR models show that these linkages have increased the share of growth volatility that can be attributed to foreign shocks in LICs. Dynamic panel models further analyze the impact of LIC trade orientation and production structure on the sensitivity to foreign shocks. The empirical results demonstrate that the elasticity of growth to trading partners' growth is high for LICs in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Europe and Central Asia. However, for commodity-exporting LICs in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, terms of trade shocks and demand from the emerging market leaders are the main channels of transmission of foreign shocks.
Keywords:
WP; EM leader; LIC growth prospect; LICS in SSA; MNA region; LICS in Asia; Growth Spillovers; Low-Income Countries; Economic Integration; Decoupling; Vector Autoregression; Panel Estimate; commodity exporter; Spillovers; Exports; Foreign direct investment; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Commodity price fluctuations; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Desynchronized: The Comovement of Non-Hydrocarbon Business Cycles in the GCC
Mr. Serhan Cevik
This paper investigates the empirical characteristics of business cycles and the extent of cyclical comovement in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, using various measures of synchronization for non-hydrocarbon GDP and constituents of aggregate demand during the period 1990-2010. By applying the Christiano-Fitzgerald asymmetric band-pass filter and a mean corrected concordance index, the paper identifies the degree of non-hydrocarbon business cycle synchronization?one of the main prerequisites for countries considering to establish a monetary union. The empirical results show low and heterogeneous synchronization in non-hydrocarbon business cycles across the GCC economies, and a decline in the degree of synchronicity in the 2000s, if Kuwait is excluded from the sample, partly because of divergent fiscal policies.
Keywords:
WP; GCC country; aggregate demand; Business cycles; business cycle synchronization; band-pass filter; concordance; GCC economy; Non-hydrocarbon business cycle frequency; business cycle analysis; pairwise correlation coefficients; business cycle desynchronization; Monetary unions; Private consumption; Government consumption; Public investment spending; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global and Regional Spillovers to GCC Equity Markets
Tahsin Saadi Sedik
and
Mr. Oral Williams
This paper analyzes the impact of global and regional spillovers to GCC equity markets. GCC equity markets were impacted by spillovers from U.S. equity markets despite varying degrees of foreign participation. Spillovers from regional equity markets were also important but the magnitude of the effects were on average smaller than that from mature markets. The results also illustrated episodes of contagion in particular during the recent global financial crisis. The findings suggest that given the degree of openness, and open capital accounts the financial channel is an important source through which volatility is transmitted. In this regard, GCC equity markets are not immune from global and regional financial shocks. These findings refute the notion of decoupling between the GCC equity and global equity markets.
Keywords:
WP; GCC equity markets; GCC; Stock markets; spillovers; contagion; financial integration; GCC market; GCC Index; GCC economy; country stock exchanges; country j equity market; response to a rise; Oil prices; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Market capitalization; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Determinants of Inflation in GCC
Ms. Magda E. Kandil
and
Mrs. Hanan Morsy
Inflationary pressures have heightened in the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) since 2003. This paper studies determinants of inflation in GCC, using an empirical model that includes domestic and external factors. Inflation in major trading partners appears to be the most relevant foreign factor. In addition, oil revenues have reinforced inflationary pressures through growth of credit and aggregate spending. In the short-run, binding capacity constraints also explain higher inflation given increased government spending. Nonetheless, by targeting supply-side bottlenecks, the increase in government spending is easing capacity constraints and will ultimately help to moderate price inflation.
Keywords:
WP; price inflation; price; exchange rate; Inflation; external shocks; domestic policies; exchange rate pass-through; GCC country; exchange rate depreciation; inflation in trading partners; excess demand; determinants of inflation; inflation in GCC; Exchange rate adjustments; Exchange rates; Capacity utilization
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Long-Run Effects of Tradeon Income and Income Growth
Mr. Allan D. Brunner
This paper examines the dynamic relationship between trade and income. While most economists agree that increased trade leads to an increase in average income, economic theory is ambiguous about the possible effects on the long-run growth rate of the economy. Using a dynamic panel data model, the hypotheses of no long-run effects of trade on income and on income growth are tested explicitly. The possibility of endogeneity is addressed by constructing an instrument for trade by extending Frankel and Romer's (1999) cross-sectional approach to the case of a panel data model. The empirical results indicate that trade has a large and significant effect on the level of income, but the effect on income growth is small and non-robust to model specification.
Keywords:
WP; panel data model; trade liberalization; economic growth; economic development; trade share; income growth; trade openness; trade-output relationship; constructed trade instrument; instrument specification; effects of trade; Personal income; Plurilateral trade; Agroindustries; Estimation techniques; North America; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Globalization and Growth Prospect in Arab Countries
Ms. Patricia Alonso-Gamo
Globalization—the intensification of international trade and finance linkages underpinned by economic liberalization and technological change—presents both challenges and opportunities to Arab countries. After reviewing this region’s disappointing performance in integration and growth, this paper analyzes the empirical relationship between the two and concludes that integration is necessary if high growth rates are to be attained and the region is not to become marginalized. It then identifies the main obstacles to the integration of Arab countries into the world economy and reviews recent progress in overcoming them. On this basis, the paper derives some policy prescriptions.
Keywords:
WP; Arab country; economic activity; private sector; terms of trade; world economy; Globalization; growth; Arab countries; per capita income; Gulf state; relative position vis-à-vis; state monopoly; oil country; Foreign direct investment; Exports; Trade liberalization; Imports; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Hemisphere; Middle East; North Africa
Cover Foreign and Intratrade Policies of Arab Countries
Foreign and Intratrade Policies of Arab Countries
Mr. Saíd El-Naggar

Abstract

The challenge facing the Arab countries to maintain economic growth in the face of the deteriorating terms of trade affecting all developing countries was addressed in a seminar held in Abu Dhabi in early 1992. This volume, edited by Said El-Naggar, includes papers by contributors from the region as well as from the IMF.

Keywords:
BOOK; country; trade; state; government; protectionism; Abu Dhabi fund; Ministry of economy; Union country; world trade growth; tariff vis-à-vis; Arab country; industrial country; government intervention; Exports; Tariffs; Imports; Trade policy; Trade barriers; Maghreb; Middle East; East Asia; North America; South Asia; North Africa