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Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia

You are looking at 1 - 8 of 8 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
External Linkages and Policy Constraints in Saudi Arabia
Mr. Niklas J Westelius
The constraints that external linkages impose on domestic policy choices in Saudi Arabia have continuously evolved over the past four decades. This paper argues that two major ongoing developments in particular have affected and will continue to affect policy trade-offs. First, growing oil needs of emerging market economies (EMEs), and specifically those of developing Asia, have strengthened economic links between the Far East and Saudi Arabia. Second, financial sector development in Saudi Arabia has gradually strengthened the monetary transmission mechanism. The former implies the increased importance of developing Asia’s growth cycle for the Saudi economy, while the latter suggests greater influence of U.S. monetary policy on the non-oil economy through the peg to the U.S dollar. As a result, divergence between the growth cycles in developing Asia and the United States has the potential to increasingly generate tension between policy objectives in Saudi Arabia.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; oil price; oil revenue; banking system; Saudi Arabia; oil export; oil GDP; oil price shock; Oil prices; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Credit; Business cycles; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover Policy Papers
Enhancing Surveillance - Interconnectedness and Clusters - Background Paper
International Monetary Fund
This paper provides additional detail for the framework discussed in “Enhancing Surveillance – Interconnectedness and Clusters” through theoretical and empirical analysis of linkages, including case studies of Saudi Arabia, the Asian supply chain, financial interconnectedness and cross-border policy dependence in banking, and the Sweden-Baltic connections. It also provides a detailed primer on network analysis.
Keywords:
PP; business cycle; exchange rate; monetary policy; emerging market; real GDP; U.S. dollar; interest rate; central bank; Business cycles; Oil prices; Consumption; Credit; Financial integration; Global; Baltics; Asia and Pacific; East Asia; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Desynchronized: The Comovement of Non-Hydrocarbon Business Cycles in the GCC
Mr. Serhan Cevik
This paper investigates the empirical characteristics of business cycles and the extent of cyclical comovement in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, using various measures of synchronization for non-hydrocarbon GDP and constituents of aggregate demand during the period 1990-2010. By applying the Christiano-Fitzgerald asymmetric band-pass filter and a mean corrected concordance index, the paper identifies the degree of non-hydrocarbon business cycle synchronization?one of the main prerequisites for countries considering to establish a monetary union. The empirical results show low and heterogeneous synchronization in non-hydrocarbon business cycles across the GCC economies, and a decline in the degree of synchronicity in the 2000s, if Kuwait is excluded from the sample, partly because of divergent fiscal policies.
Keywords:
WP; GCC country; aggregate demand; Business cycles; business cycle synchronization; band-pass filter; concordance; GCC economy; Non-hydrocarbon business cycle frequency; business cycle analysis; pairwise correlation coefficients; business cycle desynchronization; Monetary unions; Private consumption; Government consumption; Public investment spending; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time
Mr. Troy D Matheson
We develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle. In a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the indicators generally produce good GDP growth forecasts relative to a range of time series models.
Keywords:
WP; real GDP
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the Group of Twenty: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach
Mr. Francis Vitek
This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into twenty national economies along the lines of the Group of Twenty. This structural macroeconometric model features extensive linkages between the real and financial sectors, both within and across economies. A variety of monetary policy analysis and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment.
Keywords:
WP; monetary policy
Cover IMF Working Papers
Cross-country Consumption Risk Sharing, a Long-run Perspective
Mr. Zhaogang Qiao
This paper estimates an empirical nonstationary panel regression model that tests long-run consumption risk sharing across a sample of OECD and emerging market (EM) countries. This is in contrast to the existing literature on consumption risk sharing, which is mainly about risks at business cycle frequency. Since our methodology focuses on identifying cointegrating relationships while allowing for arbitrary short-run dynamics, we can obtain a consistent estimate of long-run risk sharing while disregarding any short-run nuisance factors. Our results show that long-run risk sharing in OECD countries increased more than that in EM countries during the past two decades.
Keywords:
WP; time series; math
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Housing Cycle in Emerging Middle Eastern Economies and its Macroeconomic Policy Implications
Samya Beidas-Strom
,
Weicheng Lian
, and
Ashwaq Maseeh
This paper examines housing finance and housing price dynamics in selected emerging Middle Eastern economies over the past two decades. It finds that (i) mortgage markets have experienced rapid development, which has led to lower private per capita consumer spending volatility this decade; (ii) a downward price correction occurred in the housing market after 2007, which appears to have bottomed out; (iii) the rental market appears to be largely determined by region-specific economic fundamentals-a youthful working-age population and wealth variables; and (iv) a segregation between self-owned house and rental price dynamics exists in this region, rendering the former more sensitive to the business cycle.
Keywords:
WP; price dynamics; rental price; determination mechanism; house price; housing price volatility
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Terms of Trade and Economic Fluctuations
Mr. Enrique G. Mendoza
A three-good, stochastic intertemporal equilibrium model of a small open economy is used to examine the link between terms of trade and business cycles. Equilibrium co-movements of model economies representing industrial and developing countries are computed and compared with the stylized facts of 30 countries. The results show that terms-of-trade shocks account for half of observed output variability and that the model mimics the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect and produces large deviations from purchasing power parity. The elasticity of substitution between tradable and nontradable goods and the persistence of the shocks play a key role in producing these results.
Keywords:
WP; standard deviation; real GDP; U.S. dollar; terms-of-trade shock; terms-of-trade disturbance; form terms of trade; open economy; terms-of-trade effect; Terms of trade; Trade balance; Consumption; Business cycles; Import prices; Western Hemisphere; Middle East; Africa; Asia and Pacific