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Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 432 items for :

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  • Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Spillovers from Large Emerging Economies: How Dominant Is China?
Hany Abdel-Latif
and
Adina Popescu
This paper investigates the global economic spillovers emanating from G20 emerging markets (G20-EMs), with a particular emphasis on the comparative influence of China. Employing a Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, we assess the impacts of both demand-side and supply-side shocks across 63 countries, capturing the nuanced dynamics of global economic interactions. Our findings reveal that China's contribution to global economic spillovers significantly overshadows that of other G20-EMs. Specifically, China's domestic shocks have significantly larger and more pervasive spillover effects on global GDP, inflation and commodity prices compared to shocks from other G20-EMs. In contrast, spillovers from other G20-EMs are more regionally contained with modest global impacts. The study underscores China's outsized role in shaping global economic dynamics and the limited capacity of other G20-EMs to mitigate any potential negative implications from China's economic slowdown in the near term.
Keywords:
Emerging Economies; Growth Spillover; Global transmission; GVAR model; outsized role; China's contribution; IMF working paper No. 25/27; domestic shock; Spillovers; Supply shocks; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Oil prices; Global value chains; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Oman: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
capital markets incentives program; private sector employment; employment growth; SME growth; development in Oman; Digitalization; Capital markets; Stock markets; Securities markets; Global; South Asia; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Shocks and Shields: Macroeconomic Institutions During Commodity Price Swings
Rabah Arezki
,
Patrick A. Imam
, and
Kangni R Kpodar
Countries facing commodity (net) export price shocks tend to implement fiscal rules and to financially close their economies, demonstrating “macroeconomic prudence”. These effects are (unsurprisingly) asymmetric between import and export price shocks. The impact of commodity (net) export prices on macroeconomic institutions is influenced by the intensity of shocks and income levels of the countries, with higher-income countries driving the main results. These findings remain robust across various checks, including different estimators and additional control and dependent variables. These findings suggest that macroeconomic institutions are reactive to terms of trade shocks stemming from commodity price fluctuations.
Keywords:
Commodity prices; macroeconomic institutions; natural resources; resource curse; price shock; commodity export; commodity terms of trade shock; impact of commodity; commodity export windfall; Commodity price shocks; Fiscal rules; Export prices; Exchange rate arrangements; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Market Power in the Middle East
Yevgeniya Korniyenko
,
Ahmed K Tohamy
, and
Weining Xin
The Middle East (ME) is often perceived as region with rentier economies and uncompetitive markets. Evidence of market power in the region however is scant. In this paper, we ask the following three questions: Is the ME uniquely uncompetitive? Has the evolution of market power in the region traced the global rise in market power? What government policies and actions influenced the market power in the region and can taxes be a way to even the playing field? To answer these questions, we utilize comprehensive firm-level data from Compustat between 2004 and 2022 and employ two methods for estimating markups (production function and cost-share approach). We document that market power among listed firms in the ME is higher than in the US, but on a downward trend. We find that the value-added tax (VAT) reforms introduced by some Gulf states from 2018 to 2022 resulted in a reduction of market power, an additional benefit beyond increasing fiscal space. While policymakers should continue to use available regulatory levers to achieve economic efficiency and a level playing field, VAT could be considered as an alternative instrument.
Keywords:
Middle East; Market Power; Markup; Firm Behavior; market power in the Middle East; markups estimate; sample representativeness; markups in GCC country; markups dynamics; Value-added tax; Competition; Inflation; Oil sector; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council: Pursuing Visions Amid Geopolitical Turbulence: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries have successfully weathered recent turbulence in the Middle East, and their economic prospects remain favorable. Nonhydrocarbon activity has been strong amid reform implementation, although overall growth has decelerated due to cuts in oil production. The growth outlook is positive, as the envisaged easing of oil production cuts and natural gas expansion spur the recovery in the hydrocarbon sector, while the nonhydrocarbon economy continues to expand. External buffers remain comfortable despite current account balances having narrowed. Risks around the outlook are broadly balanced in the near term. More challenging medium-term risks, especially in the context of geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change, call for action on policy priorities to continue to strengthen the private sector and to diversify the economy.
Keywords:
economic diversification; financial stability; fiscal sustainability; GCC; productivity improvements; regional integration; GCC country; policy priority; B. GCC; GCC well; GCC public sector balance sheet; Labor markets; Fiscal rules; Total factor productivity; Global; Middle East; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kuwait: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kuwait
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Kuwait discusses that the economy is projected to remain in recession under the baseline in 2024, then to recover over the medium term. The economy remains in recession, but a recovery has begun in the non-oil sector, and inflation is moderating. Lower oil prices and production have weakened the external and fiscal balances, while financial stability has been maintained. The risks around the outlook are skewed to the downside, but substantial financial buffers are a source of resilience to external shocks. Fiscal consolidation of about 13 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) should be implemented at a pace of 1 to 2 percent of GDP per year to reinforce intergenerational equity. The exchange rate peg remains an appropriate nominal anchor for monetary policy. Systemic financial risks remain contained and prudently managed. Continued efforts are needed to strengthen monetary policy transmission, maintain financial stability, and enhance financial intermediation. The authorities aim to implement reforms to support the transition to a dynamic and diversified economy. A comprehensive and well-sequenced structural reform package is needed to improve the business environment by raising efficiency, enhancing transparency, and further opening up the economy.
Keywords:
headline CPI inflation; debt management office; procurement contract; e-government initiative; capital market development; consultation-press release; Structural reforms; Oil prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Saudi Arabia: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper highlights Saudi Arabia’s Financial System Stability Assessment as part of Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). The FSAP took place against the backdrop of a robust economy driven by an ambitious state-led transformation agenda to accelerate Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification (Vision 2030). The Kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund plays a key role in implementing and funding the economic transformation. At present, financial sector risks from the rapid economic transformation appear contained. Banks are well-capitalized, profitable and appear resilient to severe macroeconomic shocks. Banks’ capacity to manage liquidity stress scenarios is generally good, although funding concentration is sizable. The authorities have made commendable efforts to mitigate risks from the rapidly growing credit and real estate market, but significant data gaps create challenges for systemic risk monitoring. The time is right to strengthen systemic risk monitoring and the legal, institutional, and operational frameworks in support of financial stability going forward.
Keywords:
B. bank stress tests; liquidity stress scenario; liquidation framework; coverage ratio; mission chief World Bank; World Bank FSAP team member; Financial sector stability; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Macroprudential policy; Commercial banks; Global
Cover Policy Papers
FY2025–FY2027 Medium-Term Budget
International Monetary Fund. Office of Budget and Planning
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund approved the 2025-27 financial years (FY25-27) medium-term budget. While the global economy has shown resilience to successive adverse shocks, the overall global economic context remains complex with slow and uneven growth, increased fragmentation, deepening divergence, and still high interest rates despite easing inflationary pressures. Against this backdrop, the FY25-27 budget continues to be guided by principles of agility and budget discipline, reinforced by ongoing reprioritization and savings capture. It also builds on strong cooperation with other institutions, ensuring the Fund continues to focus on areas within its mandate, even as it addresses new demands. Work to strengthen internal operations also continue, focusing on both efficiency and effectiveness in meeting changing needs in the post-pandemic workplace, where rapid technological changes are underway. With significant demands within a constrained budget environment, the budget reflects difficult tradeoffs.
Keywords:
medium-term budget; OBP; budget framework; financial support; A. budget overview; budget agility; I. budget process overview; budget envelope; budget remain; budget resource; Budget planning and preparation; Capital budget; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Departmental Papers
Central Bank Digital Currencies in the Middle East and Central Asia
Serpil Bouza
,
Bashar Hlayhel
,
Thomas Kroen
,
Marcello Miccoli
,
Borislava Mircheva
,
Greta Polo
,
Sahra Sakha
, and
Yang Yang
Against the backdrop of a rapidly digitalizing world, there is a growing interest in central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) among central banks, including in the Middle East and Central Asia (ME&CA) region. This paper aims to support ME&CA policymakers in examining key questions when considering the adoption of a CBDC while underscoring the importance of country-specific analyses. This paper does not provide recommendations on CBDC issuance. Instead, it frames the discussion around the following key questions: What is a CBDC? What objectives do policymakers aim to achieve with the issuance of a CBDC? Which inefficiencies in payment systems can CBDCs address? What are the implications of CBDC issuance for financial stability and central bank operational risk? How can CBDC design help achieve policy objectives and mitigate these risks? The paper provides preliminary answers to these questions at the regional level. A survey of IMF teams and public statements from ME&CA policymakers confirm that promoting financial inclusion and making payment systems more efficient (domestic and cross-border) are the top priorities in the region. Payment services through CBDCs, if offered at a lower cost than existing alternatives, could spur competition in the payment market and help increase access to bank accounts, improve financial inclusion, and update legacy technology platforms. CBDCs may also help improve the efficiency of cross-border payment services, especially if designed to address frictions arising from a lack of payment system interoperability, complex processing of compliance checks, long transaction chains, and weak competition. At the same time, CBDCs could negatively impact bank profitability while introducing a substantial operational burden for central banks. However, the exact economic and financial impacts of CBDCs need further study and would depend on estimates of CBDC demand, which are uncertain and country- dependent. CBDC issuance and adoption is a long journey that policymakers should approach with care. Policymakers need to analyze carefully whether a CBDC serves their country’s objectives and whether the expected benefits outweigh the potential costs, in addition to risks for the financial system and operational risks for the central bank.
Keywords:
central; bank; digital; currency; CBDC implementation; CBDC design; CBDC uptake; monetary policy pass-through; market power; CBDC issuance; Central Bank digital currencies; Payment systems; Financial inclusion; Digital financial services; Commercial banks; Middle East and Central Asia; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, April 2024
Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, April 2024
An Uneven Recovery amid High Uncertainty
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

The Middle East and North Africa and the Caucasus and Central Asia regions are positively impacted by the resilience of the global economy. Lower global commodity prices and vigilant policy responses have helped ease inflation in most countries. However, uncertainty and risks have risen amid ongoing conflicts, shipping disruptions, and reduced oil production. This is leading to an uneven recovery across the Middle East and Central Asia, with growth rates varying this year. Policymakers need to ensure economic stability and debt sustainability while navigating geopolitical risks and improving medium-term growth prospects. Amid high uncertainty, it is essential that countries implement reforms to enhance their fundamentals, including by strengthening institutions. Additionally, countries can seize potential economic opportunities amid shifting trade patterns by reducing long-standing trade barriers, diversifying products and markets, and improving infrastructure.

Keywords:
Trade; trade disruptions; trade diversion; trade dynamics; conflict; geoeconomic fragmentation; global value chains; policy actions; IMF staff calculation; MENA country; ME&CA economy; heightened transit trade diversion; oil exporter; trade diversion reshaping trade; headline inflation; Current account balance; Trade balance; Fiscal stance; Exports; Inflation; Middle East and Central Asia; Middle East; Central Asia and the Caucasus; North Africa; East Africa