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Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 14 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Investments: Commodities x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Shocks and Shields: Macroeconomic Institutions During Commodity Price Swings
Rabah Arezki
,
Patrick A. Imam
, and
Kangni R Kpodar
Countries facing commodity (net) export price shocks tend to implement fiscal rules and to financially close their economies, demonstrating “macroeconomic prudence”. These effects are (unsurprisingly) asymmetric between import and export price shocks. The impact of commodity (net) export prices on macroeconomic institutions is influenced by the intensity of shocks and income levels of the countries, with higher-income countries driving the main results. These findings remain robust across various checks, including different estimators and additional control and dependent variables. These findings suggest that macroeconomic institutions are reactive to terms of trade shocks stemming from commodity price fluctuations.
Keywords:
Commodity prices; macroeconomic institutions; natural resources; resource curse; price shock; commodity export; commodity terms of trade shock; impact of commodity; commodity export windfall; Commodity price shocks; Fiscal rules; Export prices; Exchange rate arrangements; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Commodity Shocks and Exchange Rate Regimes: Implications for the Caribbean Commodity Exporters
Mr. Ali J Al-Sadiq
and
Ms. Inci Ötker
Declining commodity prices during mid-2014-2016 posed significant challenges to commodity-exporting economies. The severe terms of trade shock associated with a sharp fall in world commodity prices have raised anew questions about the viability of pegged exchange rate regimes. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures needed to contain its spread have been associated with a significant disruption in several economic sectors, in particular, travel, tourism, and hospitality industry, adding to the downward pressure on commodity prices, a sharp fall in foreign exchange earnings, and depressed economic activity in most commodity exporters. This paper reviews country experiences with different exchange rate regimes in coping with commodity price shocks and explores the role of flexible exchange rates as a shock absorber, analyzing the macroeconomic impact of adverse term-of-trade shocks under different regimes using event study and panel vector autoregression techniques. It also analyzes, conceptually and empirically, policy and technical considerations in making exchange rate regime choices and discusses the supporting policies that should accompany a given regime choice to make that choice sustainable. It offers lessons that could be helpful to the Caribbean commodity-exporters.
Keywords:
commodity shock; commodity exporter; regime choice; Caribbean commodity-exporter; I. commodity terms-of-trade Index; Exchange rate arrangements; Exchange rate flexibility; Exchange rates; Exchange rate adjustments; Caribbean; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Commodity Windfalls, Polarization, and Net Foreign Assets: Panel Data Evidenceon the Voracity Effect
Markus Bruckner
and
Mr. Rabah Arezki
This paper examines the effect that windfalls from international commodity price booms have on net foreign assets in a panel of 145 countries during the period 1970-2007. The main finding is that windfalls from international commodity price booms lead to a significant increase in net foreign assets, but only in countries that are homogeneous. In polarized countries, net foreign assets significantly decreased. To explain this asymmetry, the paper shows that in polarized countries commodity windfalls lead to large increases in government spending, political corruption, and the risk of expropriation, with no overall effect on GDP per capita growth. The paper's findings are consistent with theoretical models of the current account that have a built-in voracity effect.
Keywords:
WP; commodity; revenue windfall; country; Commodity Windfalls; Net Foreign Assets; Polarization; Political Economy; commodity windfall; world commodity supply; exported commodity goods lead; hydrocarbon commodity price; commodity price boom; Foreign assets; Commodity prices; Export price indexes; Private investment; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Regional Financial Integration in the GCC
Mr. Raphael A Espinoza
,
Mr. Oral Williams
, and
Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad
We investigate the extent of regional financial integration in the member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The limited volume data available suggests that regional integration is non-negligible. Bahrain and Kuwait investments especially are oriented towards the region. The development of stock markets in the region will also improve the extent of financial integration. Interest rate data shows that convergence exists and that interest rate differentials are relatively short-lived-especially compared to the ECCU, another emerging market region sharing a common currency. Equities data using cross-listed stocks confirms that stock markets are fairly integrated compared to other emerging market regions, although financial integration is hampered by market illiquidity.
Keywords:
WP; GCC; Total GCC; price
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macro-Hedging for Commodity Exporters
Mr. Eduardo Borensztein
,
Mr. Damiano Sandri
, and
Mr. Olivier D Jeanne
This paper uses a dynamic optimization model to estimate the welfare gains of hedging against commodity price risk for commodity-exporting countries. The introduction of hedging instruments such as futures and options enhances domestic welfare through two channels. First, by reducing export income volatility and allowing for a smoother consumption path. Second, by reducing the country's need to hold foreign assets as precautionary savings (or by improving the country's ability to borrow against future export income). Under plausibly calibrated parameters, the second channel may lead to much larger welfare gains, amounting to several percentage points of annual consumption.
Keywords:
WP; strike price
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cameroon: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; gross domestic product; Cameroon; revenue; fund staff estimate; balance of payments; central bank; tertiary sector; gross national income; capital expenditure; factor payment; Agricultural commodities; Oil; Consumption; Consumption taxes; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Comoros: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
The statistical data on gross domestic product, cost structure of vanilla exports, production of meat, fish, and dairy products, consumer price index, and consolidated government financial operations of Comoros have been presented in this paper. The wage bill developments, consolidated net statement of public enterprises, monetary survey, summary statement of the central bank, volume and value of principal exports, geographical distribution of trade, external debt payments, arrears by creditors, and related economic indices have been included in the statistical data.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; value; retail price; unit value; fund staff estimate; net use; net statement; statement of public enterprises; Imports; Tariffs; Exports; Agricultural commodities; Civil service; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sudan: Recent Economic Developments
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews economic developments in Sudan during 1997–99. Sudan initiated reforms under the 1997 and 1998 Staff-Monitored Programs. Real GDP growth accelerated modestly to an annual average of about 6 percent during 1997–98. Inflation declined from an average of 133 percent in 1996 to 17 percent in 1998. Fiscal revenue buoyancy has increased markedly after years of stagnation at low levels and, coupled with an improvement in budget control, has succeeded in sharply reducing the overall budget deficit. Aided by positive real rates of returns, financial disintermediation has been halted.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; U.S. dollar; debt service; foreign currency; sales tax; monetary management; private sector; purchase contract; Agricultural commodities; Exports; Agricultural sector; Imports; Tariffs; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burundi: Statistical Annex
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Burundi; Burundi authorities; gross investment; Burundi coffee company; air Burundi; unit value; assurances du Burundi; factor cost; Agricultural commodities; Exports; Total expenditures; Agricultural prices; Credit; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Comoros: Statistical Annex
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; tax; central bank; value; unit value; advance tax payment; retail price; tax proceeds; net statement; Comorian ports establishment; Imports; Exports; Agricultural commodities; Tariffs; Africa; government financial operations; IMF UR; summary statement; cost structure