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Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia

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Cover Gender Notes
Why a Gender Lens Matters: Unlocking Solutions to Macroeconomic Challenges
Lisa L Kolovich
,
Monique Newiak
,
Diego B. P. Gomes
,
Jiajia Gu
,
Vivian Malta
, and
Jorge Mondragon
As governments design policy packages to address the main macroeconomic questions of our times, putting a gender lens on macroeconomics can amplify reform impact. In this note, IMF staff’s analysis has called for attention to strengthening legal rights, gendered aspects of fiscal policy, and enhancing women’s work–life choices, including through structural reforms. Capacity development to assist member countries in their reform efforts has grown and, so far, has centered on integrating gender into public financial management systems through gender budgeting.
Keywords:
gender lens; macroeconomic policy; macro-gender tools; gender indicators; capacity development; IMF gender note; gender toolkit; IMF gender Note 2024/003; IMF staff calculation; Gender inequality; Gender diversity; Women; Labor force participation; Labor markets; Global
Cover Staff Climate Notes
Key Challenges Faced by Fossil Fuel Exporters during the Energy Transition
Diego Mesa Puyo
,
Augustus J Panton
,
Tarun Sridhar
,
Martin Stuermer
,
Christoph Ungerer
, and
Alice Tianbo Zhang
The global energy transition is affecting fossil fuel exporters from multiple angles. It is adding to longstanding uncertainties on relative movements of fossil fuel demand and supply—which impact fossil fuel-related exports, fiscal flows, investment and subsequently external and fiscal accounts, economic growth, and employment. While policymakers are very familiar with these challenges, they now also face expectations of a permanent decline in the long-run global demand for fossil fuels. Key factors that could determine country-level impacts include (i) the type of fossil fuel a country exports (ii) extraction costs and (iii) country characteristics. The monitoring and mitigation of fiscal risks will need to be stepped up. Fiscal policy also has a role in reducing domestic emissions, encouraging adoption of low-carbon technologies, and helping those most vulnerable to changes from the transition. Broader macroeconomic risks can be reduced by accelerating ongoing structural reforms that support alternative engines of growth. Low- or zero-carbon emission energy industries could offer new avenues that build on existing fossil fuel knowledge and infrastructure. Concurrently, improved financial regulation and supervision could reduce financial sector exposures. Finally, international coordination on the design and implementation of climate policy as well as international transfer schemes (financing and capacity development) could reduce uncertainties surrounding the transition path and associated adverse economic consequences.
Keywords:
Macroeconomic policy; climate change; energy transition; fossil fuel exporters; commodity market; climate mitigation; economic diversification; international coordination; IMF staff Climate note; IMF staff Climate Note 2024/001; fossil fuel exporter; building financial asset buffer; cost exporter; Non-renewable resources; Exports; Oil; Renewable energy; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Structural Reforms to Accelerate Growth, Ease Policy Trade-offs, and Support the Green Transition in Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Mrs. Nina Budina
,
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
,
Ms. Florence Jaumotte
,
Andrea Medici
,
Augustus J Panton
,
Marina M. Tavares
, and
Bella Yao
In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, emerging market and developing economies are grappling with economic scarring, social tension, and reduced policy space. Policy actions are already urgently needed to boost growth in the near term and support the ongoing green transition. At the same time, high public debt and persistently high inflation have constrained policy space, posing difficult policy trade-offs. This Staff Discussion Note focuses on emerging market and developing economies and proposes a framework for prioritization, packaging, and sequencing of macrostructural reforms to accelerate growth, alleviate policy trade-offs, and support the green transition. The note shows that prioritizing the removal of the most binding constraints on economic activity, bundling reforms (governance, business deregulation, and external sector reforms), and appropriate sequencing of other reforms (such as labor market and credit sector reforms) can help front-load reform gains. In emerging market and developing economies with large initial structural gaps, the estimated output effects of such a major reform package are sizable—about 4 percent in two years and 8 percent in four years. Achieving higher growth and lower absolute carbon emissions over time requires a well-designed strategy that includes both macrostructural and green reforms.
Keywords:
policy trade-off; climate policy stringency; policy space; policy action; developing economy; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Structural reforms; Climate policy; Greenhouse gas emissions; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Adjust to a Large Fall in Commodity Prices
Mr. Paulo A Medas
,
Ms. Veronique Salins
, and
Mr. Jeff Danforth
Resource-rich countries have to manage highly volatile commodity revenues. In periods of revenue booms there is a tendency for large spending scale-ups. When facing large and persistent reductions in commodity prices, some of these countries will need to adjust their budgets to the new reality. In many cases, overall surpluses turn into large fiscal deficits and borrowing costs tend to rise with the fall in commodity prices. This note discusses how to undertake large fiscal adjustments, which often tend to be protracted and with long-lasting impacts on growth. Consequently, the note also highlights how to better prepare for future booms and busts in commodity prices.
Keywords:
FADHTN; HTN; commodity; price; revenue; budget; commodity resource; commodity revenue; price fluctuation; revenue windfall; impact of commodity price booms; revenue boom; challenges facing commodity exporter; commodity exporter; revenue potential; resource boom; Fiscal consolidation; Commodity prices; Natural resources
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Economic Diversification in the GCC: Past, Present, and Future
Mr. Tim Callen
,
Reda Cherif
,
Fuad Hasanov
,
Mr. Amgad Hegazy
, and
Padamja Khandelwal
Abstract: The economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are heavily reliant on oil. Greater economic diversification would reduce their exposure to volatility and uncertainty in the global oil market, help create jobs in the private sector, increase productivity and sustainable growth, and help create the non-oil economy that will be needed in the future when oil revenues start to dwindle. The GCC countries have followed many of the standard policies that are usually thought to promote more diversified economies, including reforms to improve the business climate, the development of domestic infrastructure, financial deepening, and improvements in education. Nevertheless, success to date has been limited. This paper argues that increased diversification will require realigning incentives for firms and workers in the economies—fixing these incentives is the “missing link” in the GCC countries’ diversification strategies. At present, producing non-tradables is less risky and more profitable for firms as they can benefit from the easy availability of low-wage foreign labor and the rapid growth in government spending, while the continued availability of high-paying and secure public sector jobs discourages nationals from pursuing entrepreneurship and private sector employment. Measures to begin to address these incentive issues could include limiting and reorienting government spending, strengthening private sector competition, providing guarantees and financial support for those firms engaged in export activity, and implementing labor market reforms to make nationals more competitive for private sector employment.
Keywords:
SDN; export; firm; revenue; GCC country; private sector; Diversification; growth; exports; GCC; oil revenue; GCC economy; labor market; GCC immigration system; export quality; oil export; export product diversification; export sophistication; private sector employment; firm limit; GCC framework; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Export diversification; Service exports; Global
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Revenue Administration: Administering Revenues from Natural Resources - A Short Primer
Mrs. Andrea Lemgruber
Many developing countries have significant natural resource endowments, presenting a remarkable opportunity to boost long-term growth. However, this opportunity comes with enormous challenges. To maximize social and economic benefits, strong governance and institutional capacity are essential. Effective and transparent tax administration is crucial for properly managing revenues from natural resources so the country may benefit economically and socially from its natural resources. Revenue Administration describes the challenges that developing countries face and presents good practices to help build countries’ long-term institutional capacity.
Keywords:
TNM; tax administration; NR company; NR revenue; NR sector; NR taxpayer; Revenue Administration; Natural Resource Taxation; Extractive Industries; NR-sector issue; NR tax procedure; Tax administration core functions; Administration in revenue administration; Taxpayer services; Auditing; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Macroprudential Policy in the GCC Countries
Ms. Zsofia Arvai
,
Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad
, and
Mr. Kentaro Katayama
As undiversified commodity exporters, GCC economies are prone to pro-cyclical systemic risk in the financial system. During periods of high hydrocarbon prices, favorable economic prospects make the financial sector keen to lend, leading to higher domestic credit growth and easier access to external financing. Fiscal policy is a very important tool for macroeconomic management, but due to the significant time lags and expenditure rigidities, it has not been a flexible enough tool to prevent credit booms and the build-up of systemic risk in the GCC. This, together with limited monetary policy independence because of the pegged exchange rate, means that macro-prudential policy has a particularly important role in limiting systemic risk in the financial system. This importance is reinforced by the underdeveloped financial markets in the region that provide limited risk management tools and shortcomings in crisis resolution frameworks. This paper will discuss the importance of macro-prudential policy in the GCC countries, look at the experience with macro-prudential policies in the boom/bust cycle in the second half of the 2000s, and use the broad frameworks being developed in the Fund and elsewhere to discuss ways existing frameworks and policy toolkits in the region can be strengthened given the characteristics of the GCC economies.
Keywords:
SDN; GCC country; GCC Financial; lending; bank; market; Macroprudential policy; systemic risk; credit; financial stability; GCC economy; GCC regulator; GCC bank; GCC authorities; fixed income; Financial sector stability; Macroprudential policy instruments; Global
Cover Financial Soundness Indicators
Financial Soundness Indicators
Compilation Guide
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) are measures that indicate the current financial health and soundness of a country's financial institutions, and their corporate and household counterparts. FSIs include both aggregated individual institution data and indicators that are representative of the markets in which the financial institutions operate. FSIs are calculated and disseminated for the purpose of supporting macroprudential analysis--the assessment and surveillance of the strengths and vulnerabilities of financial systems--with a view to strengthening financial stability and limiting the likelihood of financial crises. Financial Soundness Indicators: Compilation Guide is intended to give guidance on the concepts, sources, and compilation and dissemination techniques underlying FSIs; to encourage the use and cross-country comparison of these data; and, thereby, to support national and international surveillance of financial systems.

Keywords:
M&G; deposit taker; market; asset
Cover Financial Soundness Indicators
Financial Soundness Indicators
Compilation Guide
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) are measures that indicate the current financial health and soundness of a country's financial institutions, and their corporate and household counterparts. FSIs include both aggregated individual institution data and indicators that are representative of the markets in which the financial institutions operate. FSIs are calculated and disseminated for the purpose of supporting macroprudential analysis--the assessment and surveillance of the strengths and vulnerabilities of financial systems--with a view to strengthening financial stability and limiting the likelihood of financial crises. Financial Soundness Indicators: Compilation Guide is intended to give guidance on the concepts, sources, and compilation and dissemination techniques underlying FSIs; to encourage the use and cross-country comparison of these data; and, thereby, to support national and international surveillance of financial systems.

Keywords:
M&G; deposit taker; market; asset
Cover Financial Soundness Indicators
Financial Soundness Indicators
Compilation Guide
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) are measures that indicate the current financial health and soundness of a country's financial institutions, and their corporate and household counterparts. FSIs include both aggregated individual institution data and indicators that are representative of the markets in which the financial institutions operate. FSIs are calculated and disseminated for the purpose of supporting macroprudential analysis--the assessment and surveillance of the strengths and vulnerabilities of financial systems--with a view to strengthening financial stability and limiting the likelihood of financial crises. Financial Soundness Indicators: Compilation Guide is intended to give guidance on the concepts, sources, and compilation and dissemination techniques underlying FSIs; to encourage the use and cross-country comparison of these data; and, thereby, to support national and international surveillance of financial systems.

Keywords:
M&G; deposit taker; market; asset