Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 124 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Stability in a Higher-for-Longer Interest Rate Environment The Case of the Middle East and North Africa
Adrian Alter
,
Bashar Hlayhel
,
Thomas Kroen
, and
Thomas Piontek
This paper assesses the state and resilience of corporate and banking sectors in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment using granular micro data to conduct the first cross-country corporate and banking sector stress tests for the MENA region. The results suggest that corporate sector debt at risk may increase sizably from 12 to 30 percent of total corporate debt. Banking systems would be broadly resilient in an adverse scenario featuring higher interest rates, corporate sector stress, and rising liquidity pressures with Tier-1 capital ratios declining by 2.3 percentage points in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and 4.0 percentage points in non-GCC MENA countries. In the cross-section of banks, there are pockets of vulnerabilities as banks with higher ex-ante vulnerabilities and state-owned banks suffer greater losses. While manageable, the capital losses in the adverse scenario could limit lending and adversely impact growth.
Keywords:
Bank capital; stress testing; financial stability; zombie credit; bank funding profile; banking sector stress test; bank interest rate risk; bank Summary statistics; banking stress test result; Commercial banks; Corporate sector; Credit; Capital adequacy requirements; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Rollback of Credit Arrangements in the New Arrangements to Borrow
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents a proposal for aggregate reduction of the New Arrangements to Borrow (NAB) by 16.8 percent (SDR 61.3 billion), while broadly preserving relative shares of NAB participants, in line with guidance by the BoG Resolution No. 79-1 on the Sixteenth General Review of Quotas (adopted on December 15, 2023). The objective is to maintain the Fund’s lending capacity as a result of the proposed 50 percent quota increases, conditional on a reduction (“rollback”) in the NAB credit arrangements and taking into account also the expiration of the 2020 Bilateral Borrowing Agreements. Changes in NAB credit arrangements require high levels of support from NAB participants. A safeguard mechanism allows the rollback to become effective provided that participants representing at least 90 percent of credit arrangements have consented to this proposal. The effectiveness of the rollback of NAB credit arrangements would be tied to the effectiveness of the quota increases under the Sixteenth General Review of Quotas.
Keywords:
credit arrangement; NAB participant; NAB rollback; NAB credit arrangement; NAB rollback proposal; B. NAB safeguard mechanism; Credit
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2023
Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2023
Building Resilience and Fostering Sustainable Growth
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Across the Middle East and Central Asia, the combined effects of global headwinds, domestic challenges, and geopolitical risks weigh on economic momentum, and the outlook is highly uncertain. Growth is set to slow this year in the Middle East and North Africa region, driven by lower oil production, tight policy settings in emerging market and middle-income economies, the conflict in Sudan, and other country-specific factors. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, although migration, trade, and financial inflows following Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to support economic activity, growth is set to moderate slightly this year. Looking ahead, economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa region is expected to improve in 2024 and 2025 as some factors weighing on growth this year gradually dissipate, including the temporary oil production cuts. But growth is expected to remain subdued over the forecast horizon amid persistent structural hurdles. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, economic growth is projected to slow next year and over the medium term as the boost to activity from real and financial inflows from Russia gradually fades and deep-seated structural challenges remain unsolved. Inflation is broadly easing, in line with globally declining price pressures, although country-specific factors—including buoyant wage growth in some Caucasus and Central Asia countries—and climate-related events continue to make their mark. Despite some improvement since April, the balance of risks to the outlook remains on the downside. In this context, expediting structural reforms is crucial to boost growth and strengthen resilience, while tight monetary and fiscal policies remain essential in several economies to durably bring down inflation and ensure public debt sustainability.

Keywords:
growth; inflation; public debt; external financing; commodity prices; structural reforms; investment; labor productivity; financial stability; stress testing; governance reform; GCC country; credit market reform; government effectiveness; reform package; Policy space; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Credit; Labor force participation; Middle East and Central Asia; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Middle East; North Africa; oil exporter; IMF staff calculation; CCA bank; sovereign-bank nexus; Fiscal stance; Current account balance; Commercial banks; Oil exports; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Assessing Banking Sector Vulnerabilities in the Gulf Cooperation Council in the Wake of COVID-19
Abdullah Al-Hassan
,
Imen Benmohamed
,
Aidyn Bibolov
,
Giovanni Ugazio
, and
Ms. Tian Zhang
The Gulf Cooperation Council region faced a significant economic toll from the COVID-19 pandemic and oil price shocks in 2020. Policymakers responded to the pandemic with decisive and broad measures to support households and businesses and mitigate the long-term impact on the economy. Financial vulnerabilities have been generally contained, reflecting ongoing policy support and the rebound in economic activity and oil prices, as well as banks entering the COVID-19 crisis with strong capital, liquidity, and profitability. The banking systems remained well-capitalized, but profitability and asset quality were adversely affected. Ongoing COVID-19 policy support could also obscure deterioration in asset quality. Policymakers need to continue to strike a balance between supporting recovery and mitigating risks to financial stability, including ensuring that banks’ buffers are adequate to withstand prolonged pandemic and withdrawal of COVID-related policy support measures. Addressing data gaps would help policymakers to further assess vulnerabilities and mitigate sectoral risks.
Keywords:
COVID-19; banking performance; corporates performance; sovereign-banks-economy nexus; bank asset quality; oil price shock; policy support; assessing banking sector vulnerability; C. bank assets quality; Financial statements; Commercial banks; Loans; Credit; Global; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
Another Piece of the Puzzle: Adding Swift Data on Documentary Collections to the Short-Term Forecast of World Trade
Narek Ghazaryan
,
Mr. Alexei Goumilevski
,
Mr. Joannes Mongardini
, and
Aneta Radzikowski
This paper extends earlier research by adding SWIFT data on documentary collections to the short-term forecast of international trade. While SWIFT documentary collections accounted for just over one percent of world trade financing in 2020, they have strong explanatory power to forecast world trade and national trade in selected economies. The informational content from documentary collections helps improve the forecast of world trade, while a horse race with machine learning algorithms shows significant non-linearities between trade and its determinants during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Keywords:
SWIFT; trade forecast; machine learning; trade message; IMF working papers; DFM forecast; IMF working paper No. 21/293; linear regression forecast; Merchandise export; Imports; Exports; Credit; Trade finance; Trade balance; Global; Australia and New Zealand; Asia and Pacific
Cover Policy Papers
Annual Update on SDR Trading Operations
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper provides an update on the status of the SDR trading market and operations. In over three decades, SDRs have been exchanged for freely usable currencies in transactions by agreement primarily through the Voluntary Trading Arrangements (VTAs). The VTAs are bilateral arrangements between the Fund and SDR participants or prescribed holders, in which the VTA members agree to buy and sell SDRs within certain limits. A fraction of transactions by agreement—sales or acquisitions of SDRs—were arranged directly between parties.
Keywords:
SDR Trading; SDR sales; SDR acquisitions; Voluntary Trading Arrangements (VTAs); Transactions by Agreement; Allocation of SDRs; SDR Trading Capacity; Transparency; SDR exchanges; Use of SDRs; SDR trading transaction; VTA market; transparency policy; VTA capacity; SDR sale; Trading arrangements; Currencies; Freely usable currencies; Middle East and Central Asia; VTA member
Cover Policy Papers
Adequacy of Fund Resources – Preliminary Considerations
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &amp
, and
Review Department
This paper provides background for initial considerations on the appropriate size of the Fund’s overall lending capacity over the medium term. The paper reviews developments in the demand for Fund resources during the global crisis. The paper also argues that the global economy is changing in fundamental ways, with implications for the size of the Fund. Against this background, the analysis suggests that the current overall lending capacity of the Fund should be seen as a minimum. Additional resources would be needed if the Fund were to introduce changes to its lending framework. While the financing structure of the Fund should be largely quota-based, staff sees a strong case for continuing to backstop quota resources with a standing borrowing facility. Maintaining the Fund’s current overall lending capacity would require swift action by the membership.
Keywords:
PP; Fund resource; lending capacity; fund financing; financing needs; quota resource; IMF financing increase; borrowed resource; Systemic crises; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Credit; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Request for Augmentation of Access-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Islamic Republic of Mauritania
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to impose severe social and economic hardships in Mauritania, with a sharp contraction of output expected in 2020. The authorities have responded swiftly to the shock with measures to contain the pandemic and alleviate its fallout. They are prioritizing health spending and targeted support to the most vulnerable households and sectors in the economy. Nevertheless, conditions have weakened since the emergency disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility in April 2020 (SDR 95.68 million, about US$130 million or 74.3 percent of quota) and wider external and fiscal financing gaps are projected.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; SDR; IMF's executive board; response plan; debt; authority; financing gap; key interest rate; IMF's support; COVID-19; Credit; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Proposed Decisions to Modify the New Arrangements to Borrow and to Extend the Deadline for a Review of the Borrowing Guidelines
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper presents a proposal for reforming the NAB with a doubling of the aggregate size of the NAB and amendments to the NAB Decision. The proposal contains the following key elements: doubling the aggregate size of NAB credit arrangements, through a doubling of all current NAB credit arrangements; establishing a new NAB period, extending from January 1, 2021 through end-2025; updating the NAB Decision as some provisions have become obsolete or outdated; and including a new provision in the NAB Decision limiting the activation of bilateral borrowing during the new NAB period. The paper also proposes a 6-month extension of the deadline for the review of the Guidelines for Borrowing by the Fund to end-June 2020.
Keywords:
PP; credit arrangement; NAB participant; NAB reform; NAB activation condition; NAB obligation; NAB increase; NAB renewal decision; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Islamic Republic of Mauritania
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Islamic Republic of Mauritania’s Third Review of Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility. The program aims at entrenching macroeconomic stability, supporting inclusive and job creating growth, and building international reserve buffers. The authorities plan to use the prospective fiscal space prudently for priority social spending—education, health, and social protection—and public infrastructure. The economic outlook has improved, buoyed by more favorable terms of trade and the upcoming development of a large offshore gas field. Growth is projected to accelerate to 6 3/4 percent this year, supported by a recovery in extractive sectors and continued broad-based non-extractive growth reflecting strong domestic demand and budding diversification. Downside risks related to global economic developments, commodity price volatility, and regional security concerns remain elevated. Considerable challenges remain to entrench macroeconomic stability, support inclusive growth, and build resilience to shocks. The prospective fiscal space should be used prudently for priority social policies and public infrastructure.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; GDP; real GDP; price; government action; Mauritania's performance; authorities' effort; hydrocarbon revenue fund; Board's support; windfall gas revenue; Fiscal stance; Credit; Debt sustainability analysis; Global