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Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 222 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Spillovers from Large Emerging Economies: How Dominant Is China?
Hany Abdel-Latif
and
Adina Popescu
This paper investigates the global economic spillovers emanating from G20 emerging markets (G20-EMs), with a particular emphasis on the comparative influence of China. Employing a Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, we assess the impacts of both demand-side and supply-side shocks across 63 countries, capturing the nuanced dynamics of global economic interactions. Our findings reveal that China's contribution to global economic spillovers significantly overshadows that of other G20-EMs. Specifically, China's domestic shocks have significantly larger and more pervasive spillover effects on global GDP, inflation and commodity prices compared to shocks from other G20-EMs. In contrast, spillovers from other G20-EMs are more regionally contained with modest global impacts. The study underscores China's outsized role in shaping global economic dynamics and the limited capacity of other G20-EMs to mitigate any potential negative implications from China's economic slowdown in the near term.
Keywords:
Emerging Economies; Growth Spillover; Global transmission; GVAR model; outsized role; China's contribution; IMF working paper No. 25/27; domestic shock; Spillovers; Supply shocks; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Oil prices; Global value chains; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Shocks and Shields: Macroeconomic Institutions During Commodity Price Swings
Rabah Arezki
,
Patrick A. Imam
, and
Kangni R Kpodar
Countries facing commodity (net) export price shocks tend to implement fiscal rules and to financially close their economies, demonstrating “macroeconomic prudence”. These effects are (unsurprisingly) asymmetric between import and export price shocks. The impact of commodity (net) export prices on macroeconomic institutions is influenced by the intensity of shocks and income levels of the countries, with higher-income countries driving the main results. These findings remain robust across various checks, including different estimators and additional control and dependent variables. These findings suggest that macroeconomic institutions are reactive to terms of trade shocks stemming from commodity price fluctuations.
Keywords:
Commodity prices; macroeconomic institutions; natural resources; resource curse; price shock; commodity export; commodity terms of trade shock; impact of commodity; commodity export windfall; Commodity price shocks; Fiscal rules; Export prices; Exchange rate arrangements; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Somalia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues the state of educational attainment in Somalia and explores the potential growth dividends from increasing access to education and closing gender gaps in education. Somalia experienced significant loss in human capital over two decades of civil strife. Education outcomes in Somalia are among of the lowest in the world, and even worse for women. It will be important that Somalia sets strong foundations for building its education system and expanding access to education, while mobilizing the resources to do so, with continued support from international partners. The paper recommends that Somali authorities gradually increase education spending, by mobilizing both domestic and external resources. Model estimates show that increasing education access to the level of Low Human Development countries and closing gender gaps could raise real gross domestic product by close to 40 percent over the next 25 years. Given extremely limited resources and capacity, Somalia will need to carefully prioritize policies that can deliver near-term wins as it gradually develops its public education system. Improving access and quality of education will require greater resources, supported by additional domestic revenues and sustained support from development partners.
Keywords:
satellite imagery data; EAC accession; sensor data; Somalia's integration; partner States; D. policy priority; satellite data; Pensions; Civil service; Gender inequality; Customs unions; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Pakistan: 2024 Article IV Consultation and Request for an Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Pakistan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Pakistan has taken key steps to restoring economic stability with consistent policy implementation under the 2023–2024 Stand-by Arrangement (SBA). The discussions focused on Pakistan’s medium-term prospects, which helped inform policies and define program objectives. The new government formed after the February elections has continued efforts to strengthen economic conditions and is embarking on a multi-year home-grown reform program to achieve resilient and inclusive economic growth. The program aims to reinforce the authorities’ efforts to bolster policy credibility and entrench stability and accelerate structural reforms to strengthen public finances, improve the provision of critical public services, and create a favorable environment for private-led growth.
Keywords:
reform agenda; SBP's effort; governance arrangement; exchange rate movement; Pakistani authorities; Tariffs; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Saudi Arabia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Saudi Arabia’s unprecedented economic transformation is progressing well. Strong domestic demand is keeping non-oil growth robust while unemployment is at record lows. Inflation is contained and the current account surplus is rapidly narrowing. The recalibration of the authorities’ investment plans would help reduce overheating risks and pressures on fiscal and external accounts.
Keywords:
totaling SDR; PRGT loan resource; PRGT subsidy resource; about SDR; deposit of SDR; Foreign direct investment; Oil prices; Women; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, April 2024
Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, April 2024
An Uneven Recovery amid High Uncertainty
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

The Middle East and North Africa and the Caucasus and Central Asia regions are positively impacted by the resilience of the global economy. Lower global commodity prices and vigilant policy responses have helped ease inflation in most countries. However, uncertainty and risks have risen amid ongoing conflicts, shipping disruptions, and reduced oil production. This is leading to an uneven recovery across the Middle East and Central Asia, with growth rates varying this year. Policymakers need to ensure economic stability and debt sustainability while navigating geopolitical risks and improving medium-term growth prospects. Amid high uncertainty, it is essential that countries implement reforms to enhance their fundamentals, including by strengthening institutions. Additionally, countries can seize potential economic opportunities amid shifting trade patterns by reducing long-standing trade barriers, diversifying products and markets, and improving infrastructure.

Keywords:
Trade; trade disruptions; trade diversion; trade dynamics; conflict; geoeconomic fragmentation; global value chains; policy actions; IMF staff calculation; MENA country; ME&CA economy; heightened transit trade diversion; oil exporter; trade diversion reshaping trade; headline inflation; Current account balance; Trade balance; Fiscal stance; Exports; Inflation; Middle East and Central Asia; Middle East; Central Asia and the Caucasus; North Africa; East Africa
Cover Staff Climate Notes
Key Challenges Faced by Fossil Fuel Exporters during the Energy Transition
Diego Mesa Puyo
,
Augustus J Panton
,
Tarun Sridhar
,
Martin Stuermer
,
Christoph Ungerer
, and
Alice Tianbo Zhang
The global energy transition is affecting fossil fuel exporters from multiple angles. It is adding to longstanding uncertainties on relative movements of fossil fuel demand and supply—which impact fossil fuel-related exports, fiscal flows, investment and subsequently external and fiscal accounts, economic growth, and employment. While policymakers are very familiar with these challenges, they now also face expectations of a permanent decline in the long-run global demand for fossil fuels. Key factors that could determine country-level impacts include (i) the type of fossil fuel a country exports (ii) extraction costs and (iii) country characteristics. The monitoring and mitigation of fiscal risks will need to be stepped up. Fiscal policy also has a role in reducing domestic emissions, encouraging adoption of low-carbon technologies, and helping those most vulnerable to changes from the transition. Broader macroeconomic risks can be reduced by accelerating ongoing structural reforms that support alternative engines of growth. Low- or zero-carbon emission energy industries could offer new avenues that build on existing fossil fuel knowledge and infrastructure. Concurrently, improved financial regulation and supervision could reduce financial sector exposures. Finally, international coordination on the design and implementation of climate policy as well as international transfer schemes (financing and capacity development) could reduce uncertainties surrounding the transition path and associated adverse economic consequences.
Keywords:
Macroeconomic policy; climate change; energy transition; fossil fuel exporters; commodity market; climate mitigation; economic diversification; international coordination; IMF staff Climate note; IMF staff Climate Note 2024/001; fossil fuel exporter; building financial asset buffer; cost exporter; Non-renewable resources; Exports; Oil; Renewable energy; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Industrial Policy Coverage in IMF Surveillance—Broad Considerations
International Monetary Fund
The paper aims to provide a conceptual framework and guiding principles for the coverage of Industrial Policy (IP) in IMF surveillance. It proposes a working definition of industrial policy, discusses its objectives and main instruments, and provides a brief review of academic literature on IP. The paper discusses the four broad sets of considerations for assessing IP: justification, design, cost-benefit assessment, and implementation. It stresses that IP should be covered in IMF surveillance when it is deemed macro-critical and/or has the potential to generate significant cross-border spillovers. The paper also discusses specific aspects of industrial policies, including trade-related IP, green IP, Special Economic Zones (SEZs), and State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), and provides examples of the IP coverage in the Article IV consultations with China, Euro Area, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and the United States.
Keywords:
Industrial Policy; Horizontal Policies; Structural Policies; Trade Policy; Green Industrial Policy; Special Economic Zones; State-Owned Enterprises; IP measure; IMF surveillance; IP effectiveness; IP definition; transparency policy; IP type; Spillovers; Institutional View on capital flows; Tax incentives; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Trade Spillovers of Domestic Subsidies
Lorenzo Rotunno
and
Michele Ruta
As governments resort to industrial policies to achieve economic and non-economic objectives, the number of subsidies implemented each year has more than tripled in the last decade. Using detailed data across a large number of advanced and emerging economies, we empirically investigate the effects of domestic subsidies on international trade flows. Estimates from a difference-in-difference specification show that on average subsidies promote both exports and imports. These effects are partly driven by selection into subsidies, as governments target export-oriented and import-competing products. The results however mask significant differences across countries. Specifically, exports of subsidized products from G20 emerging markets increase 8 percent more than exports of other products, with no evidence of selection. The gravity estimates confirm that subsidies promote international relative to domestic trade. These spillover effects are concentrated in some industries, such as electrical machinery, and are stronger when subsidies are given through tax breaks than other policy instruments. The subsidy-led rise in trade calls for international cooperation to manage risks of retaliatory actions and possible drifts towards a subsidy war.
Keywords:
Subsidies; Industrial Policy; International Trade; Spillovers; trade spillover; spillover effect; subsidy share; effects of subsidy; subsidized product; Trade balance; Exports; Imports; Trade policy; Export competitiveness; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Inflation Dynamics in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): What is the Role of External Factors?
Fozan Fareed
,
Abolfazl Rezghi
, and
Charlotte Sandoz
Inflationary pressures have intensified in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in 2021-2022, mainly driven by a pick-up in tradeable goods inflation. Despite this increase, inflation remained relatively contained as compared to regional comparators. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of inflation dynamics in the region, with a focus on external factors because of GCC’s high reliance on international trade. Using a Global Vector Autoregressive model with quarterly data from 1987 to 2022, we find that external factors such as the imported inflation from main trading partners, mainly driven by China, and nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) are the main drivers of inflation in the GCC region. Additionally, we find that the direct pass-through of international commodity price shocks such as oil and raw agricultural materials is somewhat limited, after controlling for trading partners’ inflation, which can be explained by the prevalence of subsidies and administered prices in the region. Overall, since external factors are the main drivers of domestic inflation in the GCC, an increased focus on diversification, promoting food security, and ensuring prudent central bank policies, including through effective liquidity management frameworks, can play a key role in managing this impact.
Keywords:
Inflation; external shocks; GCC; panel data; GVAR.; GCC inflation; inflation dynamics; GCC country; GCC economy; inflation in GCC; Nominal effective exchange rate; Oil prices; Supply shocks; Food prices; Global