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Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
عُمان: قضايا مختارة
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
عُمان: قضايا مختارة
Keywords:
capital markets incentives program; private sector employment; employment growth; SME growth; development in Oman; Digitalization; Capital markets; Stock markets; Securities markets; Global; South Asia; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
المملكة العربية السعودية: برنامج تقييم القطاع المالي – تقييم استقرار النظام المالي
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
تسلط هذه الورقة الضوء على تقييم استقرار النظام المالي في المملكة العربية السعودية كجزء من برنامج تقييم القطاع المالي (FSAP). تم تنفيذ برنامج تقييم القطاع المالي على خلفية اقتصاد قوي مدفوع بأجندة التحول الطموحة التي تقودها الدولة لتسريع عملية التنويع الاقتصادي في المملكة العربية السعودية (رؤية 2030). ويلعب صندوق الثروة السيادية للمملكة دوراً رئيسياً في تنفيذ وتمويل التحول الاقتصادي. وفي الوقت الحاضر، يبدو أن مخاطر القطاع المالي الناجمة عن التحول الاقتصادي السريع قد تم احتواؤها. وتتمتع البنوك برأس مال جيد وربحية وتبدو قادرة على الصمود في مواجهة صدمات الاقتصاد الكلي الشديدة. إن قدرة البنوك على إدارة سيناريوهات ضغط السيولة جيدة بشكل عام، على الرغم من أن تركيز التمويل كبير. وقد بذلت السلطات جهودًا جديرة بالثناء للتخفيف من المخاطر الناجمة عن النمو السريع في سوق الائتمان والعقارات، ولكن الفجوات الكبيرة في البيانات تخلق تحديات أمام مراقبة المخاطر النظامية. لقد حان الوقت لتعزيز مراقبة المخاطر النظامية والأطر القانونية والمؤسسية والتشغيلية لدعم الاستقرار المالي في المستقبل.
Keywords:
مكافحة غسل الأموال ومكافحة تمويل الإرهاب (AML/CFT)؛ ب. اختبارات التحمل البنكي؛ البنوك التجارية؛ نسبة التغطية؛ استقرار القطاع المالي؛ عالمي؛ إطار التصفية؛ سيناريو ضغط السيولة؛ السياسة الاحترازية الكلية؛ رئيس البعثة البنك الدولي؛ عضو فريق البنك الدولي لتقييم القطاع المالي.
Cover IMF Working Papers
Spillovers from Large Emerging Economies: How Dominant Is China?
Hany Abdel-Latif
and
Adina Popescu
This paper investigates the global economic spillovers emanating from G20 emerging markets (G20-EMs), with a particular emphasis on the comparative influence of China. Employing a Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, we assess the impacts of both demand-side and supply-side shocks across 63 countries, capturing the nuanced dynamics of global economic interactions. Our findings reveal that China's contribution to global economic spillovers significantly overshadows that of other G20-EMs. Specifically, China's domestic shocks have significantly larger and more pervasive spillover effects on global GDP, inflation and commodity prices compared to shocks from other G20-EMs. In contrast, spillovers from other G20-EMs are more regionally contained with modest global impacts. The study underscores China's outsized role in shaping global economic dynamics and the limited capacity of other G20-EMs to mitigate any potential negative implications from China's economic slowdown in the near term.
Keywords:
Emerging Economies; Growth Spillover; Global transmission; GVAR model; outsized role; China's contribution; IMF working paper No. 25/27; domestic shock; Spillovers; Supply shocks; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Oil prices; Global value chains; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Oman: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
capital markets incentives program; private sector employment; employment growth; SME growth; development in Oman; Digitalization; Capital markets; Stock markets; Securities markets; Global; South Asia; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Shocks and Shields: Macroeconomic Institutions During Commodity Price Swings
Rabah Arezki
,
Patrick A. Imam
, and
Kangni R Kpodar
Countries facing commodity (net) export price shocks tend to implement fiscal rules and to financially close their economies, demonstrating “macroeconomic prudence”. These effects are (unsurprisingly) asymmetric between import and export price shocks. The impact of commodity (net) export prices on macroeconomic institutions is influenced by the intensity of shocks and income levels of the countries, with higher-income countries driving the main results. These findings remain robust across various checks, including different estimators and additional control and dependent variables. These findings suggest that macroeconomic institutions are reactive to terms of trade shocks stemming from commodity price fluctuations.
Keywords:
Commodity prices; macroeconomic institutions; natural resources; resource curse; price shock; commodity export; commodity terms of trade shock; impact of commodity; commodity export windfall; Commodity price shocks; Fiscal rules; Export prices; Exchange rate arrangements; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Market Power in the Middle East
Yevgeniya Korniyenko
,
Ahmed K Tohamy
, and
Weining Xin
The Middle East (ME) is often perceived as region with rentier economies and uncompetitive markets. Evidence of market power in the region however is scant. In this paper, we ask the following three questions: Is the ME uniquely uncompetitive? Has the evolution of market power in the region traced the global rise in market power? What government policies and actions influenced the market power in the region and can taxes be a way to even the playing field? To answer these questions, we utilize comprehensive firm-level data from Compustat between 2004 and 2022 and employ two methods for estimating markups (production function and cost-share approach). We document that market power among listed firms in the ME is higher than in the US, but on a downward trend. We find that the value-added tax (VAT) reforms introduced by some Gulf states from 2018 to 2022 resulted in a reduction of market power, an additional benefit beyond increasing fiscal space. While policymakers should continue to use available regulatory levers to achieve economic efficiency and a level playing field, VAT could be considered as an alternative instrument.
Keywords:
Middle East; Market Power; Markup; Firm Behavior; market power in the Middle East; markups estimate; sample representativeness; markups in GCC country; markups dynamics; Value-added tax; Competition; Inflation; Oil sector; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council: Pursuing Visions Amid Geopolitical Turbulence: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries have successfully weathered recent turbulence in the Middle East, and their economic prospects remain favorable. Nonhydrocarbon activity has been strong amid reform implementation, although overall growth has decelerated due to cuts in oil production. The growth outlook is positive, as the envisaged easing of oil production cuts and natural gas expansion spur the recovery in the hydrocarbon sector, while the nonhydrocarbon economy continues to expand. External buffers remain comfortable despite current account balances having narrowed. Risks around the outlook are broadly balanced in the near term. More challenging medium-term risks, especially in the context of geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change, call for action on policy priorities to continue to strengthen the private sector and to diversify the economy.
Keywords:
economic diversification; financial stability; fiscal sustainability; GCC; productivity improvements; regional integration; GCC country; policy priority; B. GCC; GCC well; GCC public sector balance sheet; Labor markets; Fiscal rules; Total factor productivity; Global; Middle East; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Somalia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues the state of educational attainment in Somalia and explores the potential growth dividends from increasing access to education and closing gender gaps in education. Somalia experienced significant loss in human capital over two decades of civil strife. Education outcomes in Somalia are among of the lowest in the world, and even worse for women. It will be important that Somalia sets strong foundations for building its education system and expanding access to education, while mobilizing the resources to do so, with continued support from international partners. The paper recommends that Somali authorities gradually increase education spending, by mobilizing both domestic and external resources. Model estimates show that increasing education access to the level of Low Human Development countries and closing gender gaps could raise real gross domestic product by close to 40 percent over the next 25 years. Given extremely limited resources and capacity, Somalia will need to carefully prioritize policies that can deliver near-term wins as it gradually develops its public education system. Improving access and quality of education will require greater resources, supported by additional domestic revenues and sustained support from development partners.
Keywords:
satellite imagery data; EAC accession; sensor data; Somalia's integration; partner States; D. policy priority; satellite data; Pensions; Civil service; Gender inequality; Customs unions; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kuwait: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kuwait
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Kuwait discusses that the economy is projected to remain in recession under the baseline in 2024, then to recover over the medium term. The economy remains in recession, but a recovery has begun in the non-oil sector, and inflation is moderating. Lower oil prices and production have weakened the external and fiscal balances, while financial stability has been maintained. The risks around the outlook are skewed to the downside, but substantial financial buffers are a source of resilience to external shocks. Fiscal consolidation of about 13 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) should be implemented at a pace of 1 to 2 percent of GDP per year to reinforce intergenerational equity. The exchange rate peg remains an appropriate nominal anchor for monetary policy. Systemic financial risks remain contained and prudently managed. Continued efforts are needed to strengthen monetary policy transmission, maintain financial stability, and enhance financial intermediation. The authorities aim to implement reforms to support the transition to a dynamic and diversified economy. A comprehensive and well-sequenced structural reform package is needed to improve the business environment by raising efficiency, enhancing transparency, and further opening up the economy.
Keywords:
headline CPI inflation; debt management office; procurement contract; e-government initiative; capital market development; consultation-press release; Structural reforms; Oil prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Pakistan: 2024 Article IV Consultation and Request for an Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Pakistan
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Pakistan has taken key steps to restoring economic stability with consistent policy implementation under the 2023–2024 Stand-by Arrangement (SBA). The discussions focused on Pakistan’s medium-term prospects, which helped inform policies and define program objectives. The new government formed after the February elections has continued efforts to strengthen economic conditions and is embarking on a multi-year home-grown reform program to achieve resilient and inclusive economic growth. The program aims to reinforce the authorities’ efforts to bolster policy credibility and entrench stability and accelerate structural reforms to strengthen public finances, improve the provision of critical public services, and create a favorable environment for private-led growth.
Keywords:
reform agenda; SBP's effort; governance arrangement; exchange rate movement; Pakistani authorities; Tariffs; Global