Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia
Abstract
The Middle East and North Africa and the Caucasus and Central Asia regions are positively impacted by the resilience of the global economy. Lower global commodity prices and vigilant policy responses have helped ease inflation in most countries. However, uncertainty and risks have risen amid ongoing conflicts, shipping disruptions, and reduced oil production. This is leading to an uneven recovery across the Middle East and Central Asia, with growth rates varying this year. Policymakers need to ensure economic stability and debt sustainability while navigating geopolitical risks and improving medium-term growth prospects. Amid high uncertainty, it is essential that countries implement reforms to enhance their fundamentals, including by strengthening institutions. Additionally, countries can seize potential economic opportunities amid shifting trade patterns by reducing long-standing trade barriers, diversifying products and markets, and improving infrastructure.
Abstract
Au Moyen-Orient et en Asie centrale, les effets conjugués de vents contraires à l’échelle mondiale, de difficultés intérieures et de risques géopolitiques pèsent sur la dynamique économique, et une grande incertitude entoure les perspectives. La croissance devrait ralentir cette année dans la région Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord, sous l’effet d’une réduction de la production de pétrole, de politiques restrictives dans les pays émergents et pays à revenu intermédiaire, du conflit au Soudan et d’autres facteurs propres aux pays. Dans le Caucase et en Asie centrale, même si les flux migratoires, commerciaux et financiers après la guerre menée par la Russie en Ukraine continuent à soutenir l’activité économique, la croissance devrait opérer un léger repli cette année. L’activité économique dans la région Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord devrait s’améliorer en 2024 et en 2025 à mesure que certains facteurs qui pèsent sur la croissance cette année disparaîtront peu à peu, dont les réductions temporaires de la production de pétrole. Cependant, la croissance devrait rester modérée à l’horizon des prévisions, en raison d’obstacles structurels persistants. Selon les projections, la croissance économique dans la région Caucase et Asie centrale ralentira l’an prochain et continuera de reculer à moyen terme, dans la mesure où l’impulsion donnée à l’activité par les flux réels et financiers depuis la Russie s’estompera progressivement et les problèmes structurels profondément enracinés demeureront non résolus. L’inflation reflue dans l’ensemble, parallèlement au relâchement des tensions sur les prix à l’échelle mondiale, même si des facteurs propres aux pays (dont une croissance vigoureuse des salaires dans certains pays de la région Caucase et Asie centrale) et des phénomènes climatiques continuent à laisser leur empreinte. Malgré une certaine embellie depuis avril, les risques qui entourent les perspectives restent orientés à la baisse. Dans ce contexte, il est indispensable d’accélérer les réformes structurelles pour promouvoir la croissance et gagner en résilience, tandis que des politiques monétaires et budgétaires restrictives demeurent essentielles dans plusieurs pays afin de réduire l’inflation durablement et de garantir la viabilité de la dette publique
Abstract
Across the Middle East and Central Asia, the combined effects of global headwinds, domestic challenges, and geopolitical risks weigh on economic momentum, and the outlook is highly uncertain. Growth is set to slow this year in the Middle East and North Africa region, driven by lower oil production, tight policy settings in emerging market and middle-income economies, the conflict in Sudan, and other country-specific factors. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, although migration, trade, and financial inflows following Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to support economic activity, growth is set to moderate slightly this year. Looking ahead, economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa region is expected to improve in 2024 and 2025 as some factors weighing on growth this year gradually dissipate, including the temporary oil production cuts. But growth is expected to remain subdued over the forecast horizon amid persistent structural hurdles. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, economic growth is projected to slow next year and over the medium term as the boost to activity from real and financial inflows from Russia gradually fades and deep-seated structural challenges remain unsolved. Inflation is broadly easing, in line with globally declining price pressures, although country-specific factors—including buoyant wage growth in some Caucasus and Central Asia countries—and climate-related events continue to make their mark. Despite some improvement since April, the balance of risks to the outlook remains on the downside. In this context, expediting structural reforms is crucial to boost growth and strengthen resilience, while tight monetary and fiscal policies remain essential in several economies to durably bring down inflation and ensure public debt sustainability.
Abstract
Совокупное воздействие глобальных неблагоприятных факторов, внутренних проблем и геополитических рисков в странах Ближнего Востока и Центральной Азии сдерживает темпы экономического роста, а перспективы крайне неопределенны. Экономический рост в регионе Ближнего Востока и Северной Африки, по прогнозам, в этом году замедлится, что обусловлено снижением добычи нефти, жесткими параметрами политики в странах с формирующимся рынком и странах со средним доходом, конфликтом в Судане и другими характерными для отдельных стран факторами. Хотя миграционные, торговые и финансовые притоки после начала войны России в Украине продолжают способствовать экономической активности в регионе Кавказа и Центральной Азии, в этом году ожидается небольшое замедление роста. В перспективе, по мере постепенного ослабления некоторых факторов, которые сдерживают рост в этом году, включая временные сокращения добычи нефти, ожидается, что экономическая активность в регионе Ближнего Востока и Северной Африки усилится в 2024 и 2025 годах. Но на протяжении горизонта прогнозирования темпы роста, как ожидается, останутся сдержанным на фоне сохраняющихся структурных препятствий. В регионе Кавказа и Центральной Азии прогнозируется замедление экономического роста в следующем году и в среднесрочной перспективе, поскольку стимулирование активности за счет реальных и финансовых притоков из России постепенно ослабевает, а глубоко укоренившиеся структурные проблемы остаются нерешенными. Инфляция в целом ослабевает соразмерно снижению ценового давления в мире, хотя продолжают сказываться характерные для отдельных стран факторы, включая динамичный рост заработной платы в некоторых странах Кавказа и Центральной Азии, а также события, связанные с климатом. Несмотря на некоторое улучшение по сравнению с апрелем, баланс рисков для перспектив попрежнему смещен в сторону ухудшения ситуации. На этом фоне ускорение структурных реформ имеет решающее значение для активизации роста и повышения устойчивости, в то время как вряде стран по-прежнему необходимы жесткая денежно-кредитная и налогово-бюджетная политика для долгосрочного снижения инфляции и обеспечения устойчивости государственного долга
Abstract
یخیم على الآفاق قدر كبیر من عدم الیقین، حیث یؤدي مزیج من التداعیات الناجمة عن عوامل معاكسة عالمیة وتحدیات محلیة ومخاطر جغرافیة-سیاسیة إلى آثار سلبیة على الزخم الاقتصادي عبر منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسیا الوسطى. وتشیر التوقعات إلى تباطؤ النمو ھذا العام في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفریقیا بسبب تراجع إنتاج النفط، وتشدید بیئة السیاسات في اقتصادات ُ الأسواق الصاعدة والاقتصادات متوسطة الدخل، والنزاع في السودان، وعو طریة. وفي القوقاز امل أخرى ذات خصوصیة قوآسیا الوسطى، تواصل الھجرة والتجارة والتدفقات المالیة عقب الحرب الروسیة في أوكرانیا دعم النشاط الاقتصادي، وإن كان ُتوقع أن یسجل النمو تراجعا طفیفا ھذا العام. وتشیر التوقعات إلى تحسن النشاط الاقتصادي مستقبلا في منطقة الشرق الأوسط یوشمال إفریقیا خلال عامي 2024 و2025 مع انحسار بعض العوامل المؤثرة على النمو ھذا العام تدریجیا، بما في ذلك التخفیضات المؤقتة في إنتاج النفط. ولكن من المتوقع استمرار تباطؤ النمو على مدار فترة التنبؤات بفعل معوقات النمو الھیكلیة ُتوقع تباطؤ النمو الاقتصادي العام القادم مواصلا تراجعھ على المدى المتوسط، حیث المزمنة. وفي القوقاز وآسیا الوسطى، یتتلاشى تدریجیا حالة التحسن التي شھدھا النشاط نتیجة التدفقات الحقیقیة والمالیة الوافدة من روسیا وتستمر التحدیات الھیكلیة الراسخة دون حل. وبوجھ عام، تتراجع معدلات التضخم تماشیا مع انخفاض الضغوط السعریة عالمیا، رغم استمرار التداعیات ُطریة – بما في ذلك النمو الھائل في الأجور في بعض بلدان القوقاز وآسیا الوسطى – والأحداث المرتبطة الناجمة عن العوامل القبالمناخ. وقد طرأ بعض التحسن منذ إبریل، ولكن میزان المخاطر المحیطة بالآفاق لا یزال یمیل نحو التطورات السلبیة. وفي ھذا السیاق، یتعین التعجیل بالإصلاحات الھیكلیة لتعزیز النمو والصلابة، بینما یظل تشدید السیاسات النقدیة والمالیة ضرورة في عدة اقتصادات لتحقیق خفض دائم في مستویات التضخم وضمان استدامة القدرة على تحمل الدین العام.
Abstract
A fragile recovery continues in the Middle East and Central Asia region. The region has made good progress since the beginning of the year, but new challenges have emerged. They include a pandemic wave in countries with weak vaccination progress and rising inflation, which has contributed to declining monetary policy space, adding to the difficulties posed by limited fiscal policy space. Additionally, divergent recoveries and concerns about economic scarring persist. Inequities are also on the rise, and countries will need to tackle the pandemic’s impact on debt, labor markets, and the corporate sector. Countries will face difficult tradeoffs amid this challenging environment as they continue to manage the current crisis. Ramping up vaccine acquisition and distribution remains the most urgent short-term priority. Additional support should be well targeted, and central banks may need to raise interest rates if inflation expectations start to increase. Improving policy frameworks will be important to reduce policy tradeoffs. Preparing for a new chapter by investing in a transformational recovery will be vital to the region’s future. Important priorities include reorienting the role of the state toward health, education, and social safety nets; leveraging global trends like digitalization; and investing in climate-resilient technology.
Abstract
A year into the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the race between vaccine and virus entered a new phase in the Middle East and Central Asia, and the path to recovery in 2021 is expected to be long and divergent. The outlook will vary significantly across countries, depending on the pandemic’s path, vaccine rollouts, underlying fragilities, exposure to tourism and contact-intensive sectors, and policy space and actions. 2021 will be the year of policies that continue saving lives and livelihoods and promote recovery, while balancing the need for debt sustainability and financial resilience. At the same time, policymakers must not lose sight of the transformational challenges to build forward better and accelerate the creation of more inclusive, resilient, sustainable, and green economies. Regional and international cooperation will be key complements to strong domestic policies.
Abstract
A year into the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the race between vaccine and virus entered a new phase in the Middle East and Central Asia, and the path to recovery in 2021 is expected to be long and divergent. The outlook will vary significantly across countries, depending on the pandemic’s path, vaccine rollouts, underlying fragilities, exposure to tourism and contact-intensive sectors, and policy space and actions. 2021 will be the year of policies that continue saving lives and livelihoods and promote recovery, while balancing the need for debt sustainability and financial resilience. At the same time, policymakers must not lose sight of the transformational challenges to build forward better and accelerate the creation of more inclusive, resilient, sustainable, and green economies. Regional and international cooperation will be key complements to strong domestic policies.
Abstract
A year into the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the race between vaccine and virus entered a new phase in the Middle East and Central Asia, and the path to recovery in 2021 is expected to be long and divergent. The outlook will vary significantly across countries, depending on the pandemic’s path, vaccine rollouts, underlying fragilities, exposure to tourism and contact-intensive sectors, and policy space and actions. 2021 will be the year of policies that continue saving lives and livelihoods and promote recovery, while balancing the need for debt sustainability and financial resilience. At the same time, policymakers must not lose sight of the transformational challenges to build forward better and accelerate the creation of more inclusive, resilient, sustainable, and green economies. Regional and international cooperation will be key complements to strong domestic policies.
Abstract
Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia region have been hit by two large and reinforcing shocks, resulting in significantly weaker growth projections in 2020. In addition to the devastating toll on human health, the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in oil prices are causing economic turmoil in the region, with fragile and conflict affected states particularlyhard-hit given already large humanitarian and refugee challenges and weak health infrastructures. The immediate priority for policies is to save lives with needed health spending, regardless of fiscal space, while preserving engines of growth with targeted support to households and hard-hit sectors. In this context, the IMF has been providing emergency assistance to help countries in the region during these challenging times. Further ahead, economic recoveries should be supported with broad fiscal and monetary measures where policy space is available, and by seeking external assistance where space is limited.