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Middle East and Central Asia > Saudi Arabia

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  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • IMF Staff Position Notes x
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Cover IMF Staff Position Notes
The State of Public Finances Cross-Country Fiscal Monitor: November 2009
International Monetary Fund
This paper highlights the state of Public Finances Cross-Country Fiscal Monitor. This edition of the Cross-Country Fiscal Monitor provides an update of global fiscal developments and policy strategies, based on projections from the November 2009 WEO. These projections reflect the assessment of IMF staff of current country policies and initiatives expected during 2009–2014 Underlying fiscal trends in advanced economies are weaker than previously projected, however, lower expected costs of financial sector support in the United States mean that 2009 headline numbers are better. New estimates of needed medium-term fiscal adjustment in advanced economies. Fiscal policy will continue to provide substantial support to aggregate demand in most countries this year, but a tightening is projected to commence next year in G-20 emerging markets. Fiscal policy is projected to begin tightening in emerging G-20 economies next year, reflecting a combination of reduced anti-crisis spending and expected consolidation beyond the withdrawal of crisis-related stimulus in Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey, supported by a pick-up of growth. Higher commodity prices are also expected to contribute to lower overall deficit.
Keywords:
SPN; debt ratio; emerging market; government bond; public spending; General government debt ratios; debt level; financial market; country detail; country policy; financial support; debt stock; stimulus packages; government financing; exchange regime; emerging market country; territory government; Fiscal stance; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Position Notes
The State of Public Finances: A Cross-Country Fiscal Monitor
Mr. Paolo Mauro
,
Mr. Mark A Horton
, and
Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar
This paper presents sharp increase in government debt has complicated the management of preexisting challenges from population aging, especially in advanced economies. The increase in debt ratios projected for these economies is the largest since World War II. The increase in deficits and debt raises complicated tradeoffs. Policymakers will need to balance two competing risks: on the one hand, a too hasty withdrawal of fiscal stimulus would risk nipping a recovery in the bud; on the other hand, with a delayed withdrawal investor concerns about sustainability may increase, leading to higher interest rates on government paper, undermining the recovery and increasing risks of a snowballing of debt. Regardless of the timing of adjustment, its necessary scale will be quite large, particularly for high-debt advanced economies. Preserving investor confidence in government solvency is key to avoiding an increase in interest rates, thereby not only preventing snowballing debt dynamics, but also ensuring that the fiscal stimulus is effective.
Keywords:
SPN; G20 industrial nations; country; GDP; market G-20 country; country authorities; interest rate; government financing; country circumstances; fund G-20 desk; GDP ratio; stimulus spending; PPP GDP-weighted average; financial support; ameliorating spending dynamics; emerging G-20 country; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Fiscal stance; Fiscal stimulus; Global; Europe; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Position Notes
Fiscal Implications of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis
International Monetary Fund
This note reflects macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts presented with the April 2009 World Economic Outlook, as well as information on fiscal stimulus and financial and industrial sector support gathered through mid-May. It follows the request by G-20 leaders for the Fund to assess regularly the actions taken by countries to address the global crisis and accelerate the recovery.
Keywords:
SPN; central bank; interest rate; output gap; financial support; net present value; government debt; GDP ratio; PPP GDP weight; stimulus package; PPP GDP-weighted averages; Fiscal stance; Pension spending; Financial sector; Pensions; Global; Africa