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Middle East and Central Asia > Qatar

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Cover Departmental Papers
Digital Transformation in the Gulf Cooperation Council Economies
Fozan Fareed
,
Sidra Rehman
,
Ran Bi
,
Jeong Dae Lee
,
Yuan Gao Rollinson
, and
Tongfang Yuan
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have pursued ambitious digitalization strategies as part of their broader economic transformation agenda. This paper provides a thorough review of the GCC's significant acceleration in digital transformation, particularly since the onset of the pandemic, highlighting progress in digital infrastructure, GovTech (government technology) maturity, and fintech activities. By constructing a novel composite index—the Enhanced Digital Access Index (EDAI)—and benchmarking the GCC's achievements against those of advanced and other emerging market economies, the paper finds that the GCC, on average, has closed its gap with AEs on the overall EDAI, with strengths particularly in digital infrastructure and affordability. Based on a global sample, the paper’s empirical analysis highlights a positive correlation between digitalization advancement and enhanced financial inclusion, strengthened banking sector resilience during crises, improved government effectiveness, and faster corporate sector recoveries following economic downturns. To complement the sectoral analysis of the impact of digitalization, the paper also examines the relationship of economic growth and resilience with economy-wide digitalization and find a positive association. Our findings point to additional economic gains from further advancing digitalization in the GCC, which would require comprehensive strategies to further leverage digitalization to enable a more effective and transparent public sector, balance opportunities and risks associated with fintech, enhance digital skills and digital adoption, with adequate social safety nets and appropriate training to strengthen social protection and labor market inclusion, and create an enabling environment to further digital penetration.
Keywords:
Digitalization; GCC; Resilience; Financial Inclusion; GovTech; Fintech; GCC country; GCC state; GCC labor force; artificial intelligence strategy; GCC's progress; Public sector; Global; Middle East
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Financial Conditions and Their Growth Implications for Qatar
Dorothy Nampewo
This paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Qatar and uses the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework to examine the impact of financial conditions on Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth. The analysis shows that the FCI is an important leading indicator of Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth, highlighting its predictive potential for future economic performance. The GaR framework suggests that overall, the current downside risks to Qatar’s baseline non-hydrocarbon growth projections are relatively mild.
Keywords:
Financial conditions; non-hydrocarbon growth; Qatar; GaR framework; growth projection; Qatar's baseline; copyright page; financial conditions indicator; Financial conditions index; Oil prices; Central bank policy rate; Deposit rates; Post-clearance customs audit; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Estimating Fiscal Multiplier for Qatar: Qatar
Ken Miyajima
Econometric results suggest that Qatar’s strong capital spending multiplier became less impactful as the stock of capital rose to a high level, likely as the marginal impact declined. This supports Qatar’s strategy to shifts the State’s role to an enabler of private sector-led growth, focusing on expenditure to support build human capital and implementation of broader reform guided by the Third National Development Strategy.
Keywords:
Capital spending; fiscal multiplier; GCC; Qatar; strategy to shift; Qatar's strategy; copyright page; Qatar country dummy; allocation decision; Fiscal multipliers; Current spending; Stocks; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Building a Knowledge-Based Economy to Boost Growth: The Role of Export Diversification in Qatar
Ken Miyajima
Motivated by Qatar’s Third National Development Strategy, this note discusses ingredients for boosting export diversification and growth potential. Drawing on cross-country experiences and empirical analyses, we shed light on how successful policies supported building human capital and economic complexity, the type of strategy that could best suite Qatar's circumstances, and pitfalls to avoid.
Keywords:
Economic complexity; export diversification; human capital; innovation; Qatar; Third National Development Strategy; suite Qatar's circumstances; based economy; goods export; lessons Qatar; Korea's export mix; Exports; Comparative advantage; Export performance; Middle East; Eastern Europe; Europe; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Artificial Intelligence in Qatar: Assessing the Potential Economic Impacts
Tongfang Yuan
Qatar has been actively preparing to embrace the transformative potential of artificial intelligence (AI), allowing it to lead its Emerging Market peers in AI readiness. Qatar’s AI exposure has increased significantly over the years, and increasing AI adoption is assessed to yield more opportunities than risks for the country’s labor force, thanks to the private sector’s contribution in increasing jobs that are more likely to benefit from AI-driven productivity gains. Scenario analyses suggest that increasing AI adoption, supported by policy reforms to boost human capital, innovation and domestic knowledge spillovers, could generate sizeable labor productivity gains over the medium term.
Keywords:
Artificial Intelligence (AI); labor demand; productivity; skills; Qatar; AI adoption; productivity gain; Qatar's AI exposure; artificial intelligence in Qatar; potential of artificial intelligence; Labor force; Labor productivity; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Qatar and uses the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework to examine the impact of financial conditions on Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth. The analysis shows that the FCI is an important leading indicator of Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth, highlighting its predictive potential for future economic performance. The GaR framework suggests that overall the current downside risks to Qatar’s baseline non-hydrocarbon growth projections are relatively mild. The GaR analysis highlights the importance of domestic and external conditions as indicators of real non-hydrocarbon gross domestic product growth performance. Domestic conditions seem to offer the strongest signal in the short term, whereas the effects of external conditions are significant in both the short and medium term. Overall, the current downside risks to Qatar’s baseline non-hydrocarbon growth projections are relatively mild. Alternative scenario tests indicate that future non-hydrocarbon growth could improve following a reduction in the policy deposit rate. Additionally, non-hydrocarbon growth is primarily influenced by oil prices, with minimal effects stemming from global financial market uncertainty.
Keywords:
AI readiness; AI adoption; B. Qatar's progress; artificial intelligence in Qatar; innovation policy; Export diversification; Capital spending; Exports; Human capital; Global; Middle East; Eastern Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Qatar
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Qatar highlights that growth normalization after the 2022 FIFA World Cup continued with signs of activities strengthening more recently. Fiscal and external surpluses softened mainly due to lower hydrocarbon prices. Banks are healthy but pockets of vulnerabilities remain. Near-term growth is expected to strengthen gradually. The medium-term outlook is more favorable, bolstered by massive liquid natural gas production expansion and reform gains. Fiscal and external surpluses will likely remain but moderate. The authorities’ commitment to continued fiscal prudence is welcome. The currency peg continues to serve the country well. Efforts to strengthen liquidity management are welcome and should be guided by the recent IMF technical assistance. Successful Third National Development Strategy implementation requires proper reform prioritization and inter-agency coordination.
Keywords:
Qatar national; holdings of SDR; Qatari economy well; headline inflation; hydrocarbon price; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Public sector; Capital spending; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council: Pursuing Visions Amid Geopolitical Turbulence: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries have successfully weathered recent turbulence in the Middle East, and their economic prospects remain favorable. Nonhydrocarbon activity has been strong amid reform implementation, although overall growth has decelerated due to cuts in oil production. The growth outlook is positive, as the envisaged easing of oil production cuts and natural gas expansion spur the recovery in the hydrocarbon sector, while the nonhydrocarbon economy continues to expand. External buffers remain comfortable despite current account balances having narrowed. Risks around the outlook are broadly balanced in the near term. More challenging medium-term risks, especially in the context of geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change, call for action on policy priorities to continue to strengthen the private sector and to diversify the economy.
Keywords:
economic diversification; financial stability; fiscal sustainability; GCC; productivity improvements; regional integration; GCC country; policy priority; B. GCC; GCC well; GCC public sector balance sheet; Labor markets; Fiscal rules; Total factor productivity; Global; Middle East; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover Policy Papers
The Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda, Annual Meetings 2024: Secure A Soft Landing And Break From The Low Growth–High Debt Path
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The global economy has proven resilient, and a soft landing is within reach. Inflation has moderated thanks to tight monetary policy and fading supply shocks, and growth is expected to remain steady. But uncertainty remains significant, with risks tilted to the downside; medium-term growth prospects are lackluster; public debt has reached record highs and is expected to approach 100 percent of GDP by 2030; and geoeconomic fragmentation threatens to undo decades of gains from cross-border economic integration. At the same time, transformative changes—the green transition, demographic shifts, and digitalization, including artificial intelligence—are poised to reshape the global economy, creating challenges but also opportunities. Against this background, the key policy priorities are to secure a soft landing and break from the low growth-high debt path, and address other medium-term challenges. Monetary policy should ensure inflation returns durably to the target, and fiscal policy needs to decisively pivot toward consolidation to rebuild buffers and safeguard debt sustainability. Growth-enhancing reforms are urgently needed to lift growth prospects by boosting investment, job creation, and productivity. Domestic policies must be complemented by multilateral efforts to support countries with debt vulnerabilities, protect gains from economic integration, accelerate climate action, and harness benefits of new technologies while mitigating the risks. As it has done since its founding 80 years ago, the IMF will continue to adapt to serve its members with tailored policy advice, financial lifelines when needed, and capacity development. The Fund will remain a strong advocate for multilateralism and economic integration as foundations on which to build a resilient and inclusive global economy.
Keywords:
Artificial intelligence; Capital flows; Climate change; Debt sustainability; Digitalization; Economic integration; Inflation; Growth; Reforms; Integrated Policy Framework; Poverty reduction strategy; Revenue mobilization; break from the Low Growth-High Debt Path; secure a soft landing; Policy agenda; IMF staff measure; lending toolkit; Global
Cover Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024
Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024
Steadying the Course: Uncertainty, Artificial Intelligence, and Financial Stability
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

Chapter 1 shows that although near-term financial stability risks have remained contained, mounting vulnerabilities could worsen future downside risks by amplifying shocks, which have become more probable because of the widening disconnect between elevated economic uncertainty and low financial volatility. Chapter 2 presents evidence that high macroeconomic uncertainty can threaten macrofinancial stability by exacerbating downside tail risks to markets, credit supply, and GDP growth. These relationships are stronger when debt vulnerabilities are elevated, or financial market volatility is low (during episodes of a macro-market disconnect). Chapter 3 assesses recent developments in AI and Generative AI and their implications for capital markets. It presents new analytical work and results from a global outreach to market participants and regulators, delineates potential benefits and risks that may arise from the widespread adoption of these new technologies, and makes suggestions for policy responses.

Keywords:
financial stability; vulnerabilities; uncertainty; risk; artificial intelligence; capital markets; tail risk; uncertainty index; monetary policy; mortgage rate; market liquidity risk; fiscal policy uncertainty; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Financial sector stability; Sovereign bonds; Credit; Global; Middle East; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; South America