Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Middle East and Central Asia > Qatar

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 15 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Earth Sciences, Geography, Environment x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover Policy Papers
The Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda, Annual Meetings 2024: Secure A Soft Landing And Break From The Low Growth–High Debt Path
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The global economy has proven resilient, and a soft landing is within reach. Inflation has moderated thanks to tight monetary policy and fading supply shocks, and growth is expected to remain steady. But uncertainty remains significant, with risks tilted to the downside; medium-term growth prospects are lackluster; public debt has reached record highs and is expected to approach 100 percent of GDP by 2030; and geoeconomic fragmentation threatens to undo decades of gains from cross-border economic integration. At the same time, transformative changes—the green transition, demographic shifts, and digitalization, including artificial intelligence—are poised to reshape the global economy, creating challenges but also opportunities. Against this background, the key policy priorities are to secure a soft landing and break from the low growth-high debt path, and address other medium-term challenges. Monetary policy should ensure inflation returns durably to the target, and fiscal policy needs to decisively pivot toward consolidation to rebuild buffers and safeguard debt sustainability. Growth-enhancing reforms are urgently needed to lift growth prospects by boosting investment, job creation, and productivity. Domestic policies must be complemented by multilateral efforts to support countries with debt vulnerabilities, protect gains from economic integration, accelerate climate action, and harness benefits of new technologies while mitigating the risks. As it has done since its founding 80 years ago, the IMF will continue to adapt to serve its members with tailored policy advice, financial lifelines when needed, and capacity development. The Fund will remain a strong advocate for multilateralism and economic integration as foundations on which to build a resilient and inclusive global economy.
Keywords:
Artificial intelligence; Capital flows; Climate change; Debt sustainability; Digitalization; Economic integration; Inflation; Growth; Reforms; Integrated Policy Framework; Poverty reduction strategy; Revenue mobilization; break from the Low Growth-High Debt Path; secure a soft landing; Policy agenda; IMF staff measure; lending toolkit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Peru: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The Selected Issues paper focuses on productivity and growth in Peru. Firms have maintained smaller sizes to avoid the application of a profit-sharing legislation, which has resulted in lower productivity. After a decade of high economic growth averaging over 6 percent per year, potential growth has been falling since 2014. A much slower pace of investment and human has driven the decline capital accumulation, but most notably, a decline in total factor productivity growth. In line with the macroeconomic trends, firm-level productivity has worsened, and the decline has been broad-based across the economy. Special corporate tax regimes and labor legislations and regulations have created barriers to productivity growth. To raise productivity, policies will need to focus on reforming regulations that impose excessive costs to formalizing or growing a business. Down the line, introducing greater labor market flexibility would ensure that workers could transition to productive sectors of the economy and reduce labor informality.
Keywords:
El Niño shock; building RESILIENCE; B. Measuring productivity; B. artificial intelligence; total factor productivity growth; labor force complementarity; Climate change; Natural disasters; Productivity; Potential output; Artificial intelligence; Global; Caribbean
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, April 2024
Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, April 2024
Soft Landing in Crosswinds for a Lasting Recovery
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

A soft landing for Europe’s economies is within reach. Securing the baseline of growth with price stability will require careful monetary policy calibration. Faster fiscal consolidation would ensure buffers are adequate to tackle future shocks, while structural fiscal reforms would help address mounting long-term expenditure pressures. Beyond the near-term recovery, raising potential growth prospects calls for efforts at both the domestic and European levels. Measures should aim to raise labor force participation, prepare the workforce for looming structural shifts, set an enabling environment for private investment, and promote innovation on a level European playing field—especially when it comes to the green transition, including through a strong commitment to carbon pricing. Greater European integration would amplify the effect of these reforms. Formulating an ambitious set of growth-enhancing reforms should be a key priority of a new EU commission.

Keywords:
Inflation; Growth; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; Productivity; single market; soft landing; CESEE economy; inflation rate; IMF staff calculation; EU accession path; EU country; per capita income; Labor markets; Artificial intelligence; Europe; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review of the Fund’s Capacity Development Strategy—Towards a More Flexible, Integrated, and Tailored Model
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
Capacity Development (CD), comprising technical assistance and training, fosters economic development by improving human capital and institutions in member countries. Every five years, the IMF reviews its CD Strategy to ensure that CD continues to be of high quality and well-focused on the needs of its members. This review calls for CD to become more flexible, integrated with the Fund’s policy advice and lending, and tailored to respond to member needs. The review benefitted from the recent independent evaluation of the Fund’s CD and a wide range of inputs, including internal and external consultations, surveys of recipients and development partners, staff background studies and recommendations of an External Advisory Group. The vision for CD is informed by the Fund’s comparative advantages and surveillance priorities. The proposals of the current review center around the six key areas: (1) strengthening CD prioritization and integration; (2) enhancing the funding model; (3) strengthening monitoring and evaluation; (4) modernizing modalities; (5) enhancing field presence; and (5) strengthening human resources policies for staff working on CD.
Keywords:
Capacity Development; Technical Assistance; Training; Institution; Priorities; Evaluation; Impact; Field Presence; Regional Capacity Development Center; Background Papers; CD personnel structure; CD priority; CD financing initiative; CD Strategy Review; CD governance; CD integration; CD relative; CD partner; strategy review; CD model; CD efficiency; CD stabilization mechanism; Comparative advantage; Artificial intelligence; Revenue mobilization; Climate change; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Harnessing Satellite Data to Improve Social Assistance Targeting in the Eastern Caribbean
Sophia Chen
,
Ryu Matsuura
,
Flavien Moreau
, and
Joana Pereira
Prioritizing populations most in need of social assistance is an important policy decision. In the Eastern Caribbean, social assistance targeting is constrained by limited data and the need for rapid support in times of large economic and natural disaster shocks. We leverage recent advances in machine learning and satellite imagery processing to propose an implementable strategy in the face of these constraints. We show that local well-being can be predicted with high accuracy in the Eastern Caribbean region using satellite data and that such predictions can be used to improve targeting by reducing aggregation bias, better allocating resources across areas, and proxying for information difficult to verify.
Keywords:
Social assistance targeting; satellite data; machine learning; Eastern Caribbean; Small Island Developing States.; aggregation bias; hard-to-verify information; satellite imagery processing; Income; Natural disasters; Caribbean
Cover Staff Climate Notes
Key Challenges Faced by Fossil Fuel Exporters during the Energy Transition
Diego Mesa Puyo
,
Augustus J Panton
,
Tarun Sridhar
,
Martin Stuermer
,
Christoph Ungerer
, and
Alice Tianbo Zhang
The global energy transition is affecting fossil fuel exporters from multiple angles. It is adding to longstanding uncertainties on relative movements of fossil fuel demand and supply—which impact fossil fuel-related exports, fiscal flows, investment and subsequently external and fiscal accounts, economic growth, and employment. While policymakers are very familiar with these challenges, they now also face expectations of a permanent decline in the long-run global demand for fossil fuels. Key factors that could determine country-level impacts include (i) the type of fossil fuel a country exports (ii) extraction costs and (iii) country characteristics. The monitoring and mitigation of fiscal risks will need to be stepped up. Fiscal policy also has a role in reducing domestic emissions, encouraging adoption of low-carbon technologies, and helping those most vulnerable to changes from the transition. Broader macroeconomic risks can be reduced by accelerating ongoing structural reforms that support alternative engines of growth. Low- or zero-carbon emission energy industries could offer new avenues that build on existing fossil fuel knowledge and infrastructure. Concurrently, improved financial regulation and supervision could reduce financial sector exposures. Finally, international coordination on the design and implementation of climate policy as well as international transfer schemes (financing and capacity development) could reduce uncertainties surrounding the transition path and associated adverse economic consequences.
Keywords:
Macroeconomic policy; climate change; energy transition; fossil fuel exporters; commodity market; climate mitigation; economic diversification; international coordination; IMF staff Climate note; IMF staff Climate Note 2024/001; fossil fuel exporter; building financial asset buffer; cost exporter; Non-renewable resources; Exports; Oil; Renewable energy; Global
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, September 2023
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development, September 2023
Keywords:
UN medium-fertility scenario; IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings; climate debt; IMF photo; Mars mission project manager; Climate change; Climate finance; Greenhouse gas emissions; Remittances; Artificial intelligence; Global; Middle East; North Africa; Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Structural Breaks in Carbon Emissions: A Machine Learning Analysis
Jiaxiong Yao
and
Mr. Yunhui Zhao
To reach the global net-zero goal, the level of carbon emissions has to fall substantially at speed rarely seen in history, highlighting the need to identify structural breaks in carbon emission patterns and understand forces that could bring about such breaks. In this paper, we identify and analyze structural breaks using machine learning methodologies. We find that downward trend shifts in carbon emissions since 1965 are rare, and most trend shifts are associated with non-climate structural factors (such as a change in the economic structure) rather than with climate policies. While we do not explicitly analyze the optimal mix between climate and non-climate policies, our findings highlight the importance of the nonclimate policies in reducing carbon emissions. On the methodology front, our paper contributes to the climate toolbox by identifying country-specific structural breaks in emissions for top 20 emitters based on a user-friendly machine-learning tool and interpreting the results using a decomposition of carbon emission ( Kaya Identity).
Keywords:
Climate Policies; Carbon Emissions; Machine Learning; Structural Break; Kaya Identity; machine learning methodology; machine learning analysis; user-friendly machine-learning tool; emission level; energy intensity; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate policy; Climate change; Carbon tax; Machine learning; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries - 2021
International Monetary Fund
GCC policymakers moved quickly to mitigate the health and economic impacts of twin COVID-19 and oil price shocks. Infection rates have declined across the GCC to well below previous peaks, though countries have experienced successive waves of the virus, and economic recoveries have begun to take hold. Nevertheless, GCC policymakers must navigate a challenging and uncertain landscape. The pandemic continues to cloud the global outlook as countries are in different phases of recovery, with varied growth prospects and policy space
Keywords:
oil market development; oil growth; oil balance; climate change impact; GCC economy; Oil prices; COVID-19; Oil consumption; Climate change; Global; Fiscal stance
Cover Departmental Papers
The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region
Mr. Tokhir N Mirzoev
,
Ling Zhu
,
Yang Yang
,
Ms. Tian Zhang
,
Mr. Erik Roos
,
Mr. Andrea Pescatori
, and
Mr. Akito Matsumoto
The oil market is undergoing fundamental change. New technologies are increasing the supply of oil from old and new sources, while rising concerns over the environment are seeing the world gradually moving away from oil. This spells a significant challenge for oil-exporting countries, including those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) who account for a fifth of the world’s oil production. The GCC countries have recognized the need to reduce their reliance on oil and are all implementing reforms to diversify their economies as well as fiscal and external revenues. Nevertheless, as global oil demand is expected to peak in the next two decades, the associated fiscal imperative could be both larger and more urgent than implied by the GCC countries’ existing plans.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; price; demand; GCC country; GCC region; oil demand; hydrocarbon GDP; market share; price assumption; GCC government; Oil prices; Oil consumption; Oil; Fiscal consolidation; Fiscal stance; Global; data IMF Library; research department; Energy conservation; Middle East and Central Asia