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Middle East and Central Asia > Qatar

You are looking at 1 - 2 of 2 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Forecasting Social Unrest: A Machine Learning Approach
Chris Redl
and
Sandile Hlatshwayo
We produce a social unrest risk index for 125 countries covering a period of 1996 to 2020. The risk of social unrest is based on the probability of unrest in the following year derived from a machine learning model drawing on over 340 indicators covering a wide range of macro-financial, socioeconomic, development and political variables. The prediction model correctly forecasts unrest in the following year approximately two-thirds of the time. Shapley values indicate that the key drivers of the predictions include high levels of unrest, food price inflation and mobile phone penetration, which accord with previous findings in the literature.
Keywords:
Social unrest; machine learning.; machine learning model; risk index; prediction model; machine learning approach; IMF working; Machine learning; Inflation; Food prices; Global; unrest event
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2008, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2008, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia underlines that the region has continued to experience strong growth in 2008, and the short-term outlook is generally favorable. However, inflation has emerged as a key issue, and while the global credit crunch has thus far had a limited impact on regional financial markets, the financial turmoil and slowdown in developed economies could lower growth in the period ahead. Policies will need to focus on tightening the fiscal and monetary stance where appropriate, with greater exchange rate flexibility, and continuing efforts to strengthen the resilience of financial sectors.

Keywords:
REO; abbreviation FY; price; MCD country; per capita income; en dash; a number of assumption; country acronym; inflation expectation; inflation risk; Inflation; Public sector wages; Food prices; Commodity prices; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Maghreb; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Middle East; North Africa; Oil prices; East Africa