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Middle East and Central Asia > Qatar

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Cover IMF Working Papers
How Do Member Countries Receive IMF Policy Advice: Results from a State-of-the-art Sentiment Index
Ms. Ghada Fayad
,
Chengyu Huang
,
Yoko Shibuya
, and
Peng Zhao
This paper applies state-of-the-art deep learning techniques to develop the first sentiment index measuring member countries’ reception of IMF policy advice at the time of Article IV Consultations. This paper finds that while authorities of member countries largely agree with Fund advice, there is variation across country size, external openness, policy sectors and their assessed riskiness, political systems, and commodity export intensity. The paper also looks at how sentiment changes during and after a financial arrangement or program with the Fund, as well as when a country receives IMF technical assistance. The results shed light on key aspects on Fund surveillance while redefining how the IMF can view its relevance, value added, and traction with its member countries.
Keywords:
WP; IMF Policy advice; commodity price; Fund advice; IMF increase fund traction; IMF quota; sentiment index; policy advice; Fund policy assessment; IMF member countries' reception; increase fund traction; IMF member countries' reception of Fund advice; IMF article IV staff report; Commodity price fluctuations; Machine learning; Financial sector; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Commodity prices; Global; Surveillance; Economic Policy; Sentiment Analysis; Natural Language Processing
Cover IMF Working Papers
Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries
Carlos Caceres
and
Leandro Medina
The recent relatively high levels of global oil prices have led to a significant improvement in the public finances of several hydrocarbon-exporting countries. However, despite the increase in fiscal buffers, medium-term risks remain high. Fiscal vulnerabilities have increased as a consequence of the substantial spending packages that have been implemented in recent years. This has raised break-even prices—that is, the price levels that ensure that fiscal accounts are in balance at a given level of spending—in these countries. This study analyses such risks and develops measures of fiscal risk stemming from oil price fluctuations. An empirical application to hydrocarbon-exporting countries from the Middle East and North Africa region is included. Additionally, it is noted that countries with large net assets and proven oil reserves are much less vulnerable to fiscal risk than is indicated by standard measures based on break-even prices. 
Keywords:
WP; price; break-even price; break-even; oil price; Fiscal risk; stochastic simulations; oil prices; volatility; break-even prices; breakeven price; price change; price of oil; spot market; price of Brent; Commodity price fluctuations; Fiscal risks; Futures; Commodity prices; Middle East; North Africa; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2008, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2008, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia underlines that the region has continued to experience strong growth in 2008, and the short-term outlook is generally favorable. However, inflation has emerged as a key issue, and while the global credit crunch has thus far had a limited impact on regional financial markets, the financial turmoil and slowdown in developed economies could lower growth in the period ahead. Policies will need to focus on tightening the fiscal and monetary stance where appropriate, with greater exchange rate flexibility, and continuing efforts to strengthen the resilience of financial sectors.

Keywords:
REO; abbreviation FY; price; MCD country; per capita income; en dash; a number of assumption; country acronym; inflation expectation; inflation risk; Inflation; Public sector wages; Food prices; Commodity prices; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Maghreb; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Middle East; North Africa; Oil prices; East Africa