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Middle East and Central Asia > Qatar

You are looking at 1 - 2 of 2 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
High Performance Export Portfolio: Design Growth-Enhancing Export Structure with Machine Learning
Ms. Natasha X Che
and
Xuege Zhang
This paper studies the relationship between export structure and growth performance. We design an export recommendation system using a collaborative filtering algorithm based on countries' revealed comparative advantages. The system is used to produce export portfolio recommendations covering over 190 economies and over 30 years. We find that economies with their export structure more aligned with the recommended export structure achieve better growth performance, in terms of both higher GDP growth rate and lower growth volatility. These findings demonstrate that export structure matters for obtaining high and stable growth. Our recommendation system can serve as a practical tool for policymakers seeking actionable insights on their countries’ export potential and diversification strategies that may be complex and hard to quantify.
Keywords:
export diversification; comparative advantage; machine learning; collaborative filtering; economic growth; international trade; export structure; export portfolio recommendation; export recommendation system; performance export portfolio; export potential; Exports; Comparative advantage; Export diversification; Human capital; Total factor productivity; Global; East Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Intelligent Export Diversification: An Export Recommendation System with Machine Learning
Ms. Natasha X Che
This paper presents a set of collaborative filtering algorithms that produce product recommendations to diversify and optimize a country's export structure in support of sustainable long-term growth. The recommendation system is able to accurately predict the historical trends in export content and structure for high-growth countries, such as China, India, Poland, and Chile, over 20-year spans. As a contemporary case study, the system is applied to Paraguay, to create recommendations for the country's export diversification strategy.
Keywords:
WP; SITC product lists; price boom; product-space literature; country-product space; export basket; export product; KNN implementation; export diversificiation; comparative advantage; machine learning; collaborative filtering; economic growth; international trade; RCA export; export structure; diversification strategy; KNN recommender; export diversification recommendation; product name; Exports; Export diversification; Personal income; East Asia; Caribbean; Africa; Global; export diversification strategy