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Joshua Aslett
,
Gustavo González
,
Stuart Hamilton
, and
Miguel Pecho
В этой технической справке представлена аналитика для управления комплаенс-рисками в рамках налогового администрирования. Вместе с сопровождающим ее набором инструментов эта справка предназначена для использования в качестве стартового набора для содействия развитию потенциала в области комплаенс-планирования , оценки рисков и работы групп по сбору аналитических данных. В этой справке, разработанной в первую очередь для начинающих аналитиков, которые только приступают к работе в области налогового администрирования, представлены как теоретические, так и практические аспекты аналитики. Его инструментарий состоит из первоначального набора аналитических форм, призванных помочь реализовать представленную здесь теорию на практике в таких областях, как: 1) комплаенс-планирование; 2) составление профиля налогоплательщика; и 3) отбор кандидатов для проведения проверок.
Joshua Aslett
,
Gustavo González
,
Stuart Hamilton
, and
Miguel Pecho
This technical note introduces analytics for compliance risk management in tax administration. Together with its accompanying toolkit, the note is intended as a starter kit to support capacity development in compliance planning, risk, and intelligence groups. Developed primarily for emerging analysts new to tax administration, the note presents both theory and practical aspects of analytics. Its toolkit is comprised of an initial collection of analytics templates designed to assist in turning the theory presented into practice in the areas of: (1) compliance planning; (2) taxpayer profiling; and (3) audit case selection.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The IMF’s Vulnerability Exercise (VE) is a cross-country exercise that identifies country-specific near-term macroeconomic risks. As a key element of the Fund’s broader risk architecture, the VE is a bottom-up, multi-sectoral approach to risk assessments for all IMF member countries. The VE modeling toolkit is regularly updated in response to global economic developments and the latest modeling innovations. The new generation of VE models presented here leverages machine-learning algorithms. The models can better capture interactions between different parts of the economy and non-linear relationships that are not well measured in ”normal times.” The performance of machine-learning-based models is evaluated against more conventional models in a horse-race format. The paper also presents direct, transparent methods for communicating model results.
Dong Frank Wu
and
Mr. Friedrich Schneider
This paper is the first attempt to directly explore the long-run nonlinear relationship between the shadow economy and level of development. Using a dataset of 158 countries over the period from 1996 to 2015, our results reveal a robust U-shaped relationship between the shadow economy size and GDP per capita. Our results imply that the shadow economy tends to increase when economic development surpasses a given threshold or at least does not disappear. Our findings suggest that special attention should be given to the country’s level of development when designing policies to tackle issues related to the shadow economy.