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Middle East and Central Asia > Qatar

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 15 items for :

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Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, September 2023
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development, September 2023
Keywords:
UN medium-fertility scenario; IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings; climate debt; IMF photo; Mars mission project manager; Climate change; Climate finance; Greenhouse gas emissions; Remittances; Artificial intelligence; Global; Middle East; North Africa; Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
AI and Macroeconomic Modeling: Deep Reinforcement Learning in an RBC model
Tohid Atashbar
and
Rui Aruhan Shi
This study seeks to construct a basic reinforcement learning-based AI-macroeconomic simulator. We use a deep RL (DRL) approach (DDPG) in an RBC macroeconomic model. We set up two learning scenarios, one of which is deterministic without the technological shock and the other is stochastic. The objective of the deterministic environment is to compare the learning agent's behavior to a deterministic steady-state scenario. We demonstrate that in both deterministic and stochastic scenarios, the agent's choices are close to their optimal value. We also present cases of unstable learning behaviours. This AI-macro model may be enhanced in future research by adding additional variables or sectors to the model or by incorporating different DRL algorithms.
Keywords:
Reinforcement learning; Deep reinforcement learning; Artificial intelligence; RL; DRL; Learning algorithms; Macro modeling; RBC; Real business cycles; DDPG; Deep deterministic policy gradient; Actor-critic algorithms; RBC model; AI-macroeconomic simulator; AI experiment; learning algorithm; Machine learning; Rational expectations; Debt relief; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Deep Reinforcement Learning: Emerging Trends in Macroeconomics and Future Prospects
Tohid Atashbar
and
Rui Aruhan Shi
The application of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) in economics has been an area of active research in recent years. A number of recent works have shown how deep reinforcement learning can be used to study a variety of economic problems, including optimal policy-making, game theory, and bounded rationality. In this paper, after a theoretical introduction to deep reinforcement learning and various DRL algorithms, we provide an overview of the literature on deep reinforcement learning in economics, with a focus on the main applications of deep reinforcement learning in macromodeling. Then, we analyze the potentials and limitations of deep reinforcement learning in macroeconomics and identify a number of issues that need to be addressed in order for deep reinforcement learning to be more widely used in macro modeling.
Keywords:
Reinforcement learning; Deep reinforcement learning; Artificial intelligence, RL; DRL; Learning algorithms; Macro modeling; RL algorithm overview; trust region policy optimization; DRL algorithm; decision process; RL algorithm; Machine learning; Artificial intelligence; Debt relief; General equilibrium models; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Rwanda: Third Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director and Staff Representative for Rwanda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic is having an adverse impact on Rwanda’s economy, despite a sizeable policy response. Output in 2020 is projected to contract by 0.2 percent, compared to an 8 percent increase expected pre-pandemic. The government’s early actions helped contain the spread of the virus and mitigate its economic impact, supported by financing from Rwanda’s development partners, including from the IMF under the RCF. With the number of infections contained, the authorities are gradually easing up containment measures.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; IT system; assessment of a reform target; staff appraisal; real-time assessment; interest rate
Cover IMF Working Papers
Debt Is Not Free
Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia
,
Mr. Paulo A Medas
,
Pranav Gupta
, and
Yuan Xiang
With public debt soaring across the world, a growing concern is whether current debt levels are a harbinger of fiscal crises, thereby restricting the policy space in a downturn. The empirical evidence to date is however inconclusive, and the true cost of debt may be overstated if interest rates remain low. To shed light into this debate, this paper re-examines the importance of public debt as a leading indicator of fiscal crises using machine learning techniques to account for complex interactions previously ignored in the literature. We find that public debt is the most important predictor of crises, showing strong non-linearities. Moreover, beyond certain debt levels, the likelihood of crises increases sharply regardless of the interest-growth differential. Our analysis also reveals that the interactions of public debt with inflation and external imbalances can be as important as debt levels. These results, while not necessarily implying causality, show governments should be wary of high public debt even when borrowing costs seem low.
Keywords:
WP; fiscal crisis; interest-growth differential; crisis threshold; crisis observation; probability of a crisis
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Arab Emirates: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on the United Arab Emirates highlights the macroprudential policies. The fixed exchange rate and persistent structural liquidity surpluses in upswings add to the difficulties in managing aggregate demand contain credit expansion. The exchange rate peg and the open capital account allow limited room to deviate from the U.S. interest rates. Monetary policy is further constrained by limited liquidity management capabilities, as liquidity forecasting is in its infancy, and central banks liquidity management relies primarily on reserve requirements and standing facilities for liquidity absorption. The lack of a local currency fixed-income market raises the prominence of real estate as an asset class for investment and the exposure of the banking system to the real estate sector.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; company; GRE; Yes; Dubai; GCC country; GRE debt; debt management; major GRE restructuring; Dubai GRE; Dubai debt restructuring deal; CBU regulation; GRE risk; GCC economy; Dubai World restructuring; Dubai government; Macroprudential policy; Financial sector stability; Corporate governance; Systemic risk; Debt restructuring; Global; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: 2012 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Qatar's economy is driven by high oil and natural gas prices and production, and remains strong with robust nonhydrocarbon growth. Its government has now shifted its focus to economic diversification and growth in nonhydrocarbon sectors through targeted infrastructure investments. The Executive Directors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted the positive regional spillover effects of Qatar’s high growth, public spending, and increased financial assistance. The adoption of a three-year budget framework to help shield government spending from revenue volatility and enable better use of resources is welcomed.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; implementation risk; government; government finance statistics; infrastructure investment program; liquidity forecasting framework; financing risk; consumer price inflation; Capital spending; Current spending; Oil prices; Global; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: Staff Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
This 2011 Article IV Consultation highlights that Qatar is using its fiscal space, generated from an increase in hydrocarbon production and prices, to implement a large public spending program. Large infrastructure investments are expected to sustain strong growth of 9 percent to 10 percent in the nonhydrocarbon sector in the medium term. The potential inflationary effect of the recent fiscal package is estimated to be about 1 percentage point. This underscores the need for fiscal policy to monitor aggregate demand and for the Qatar Central Bank to manage liquidity.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; balance of payments; Qatar; balance of payments statistics; debt; headline inflation; real gross domestic product; financial asset; foreign currency; GDDS summary table II; manpower planning exercise; financial market; Qatari riyal; Commercial banks; Fiscal stance; Global; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Request for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility
International Monetary Fund
The Executive Board of the IMF on July 25, 2011, has approved a disbursement of an amount equivalent to SDR 1.245 million under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) for St. Vincent and the Grenadines to help the country meet the urgent balance-of-payments need caused by torrential rains, flooding, and landslides in April that caused extensive damage to infrastructure, agriculture, and housing. The RCF, which provides rapid financial assistance for low-income countries with an urgent balance-of-payments need, does not require any program-based conditionality or review.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; balance of payments difficulty; The RCF; present value; discussion of St. Vincent and the Grenadines; urgent balance of payments; debt service; exchange rate; Natural disasters; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Fiscal stance; Caribbean; North America; Northern Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: 2010 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Staff Statement and Supplement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Qatar
International Monetary Fund
Qatar has weathered the global economic crisis well. Enhancement of liquefied natural gas capacity (LNG), government support to the banking system, and increase in public spending sustain the high growth rates. There is a need to monitor aggregate demand to prevent the resurgence of inflation pressures. The creation of a financial stability unit and the results of recent stress tests show the banking system’s resilience to market and credit risks. The coordination among data providers and intention to seek technical assistance in consumer price index are noted.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; headline CPI inflation; QCB shares staffs assessment; staff appraisal; headline inflation; Headline consumer price inflation; bank credit to the private sector; Commercial banks; Credit; Credit bureaus; Global