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Middle East and Central Asia > Qatar

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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Building a Knowledge-Based Economy to Boost Growth: The Role of Export Diversification in Qatar
Ken Miyajima
Motivated by Qatar’s Third National Development Strategy, this note discusses ingredients for boosting export diversification and growth potential. Drawing on cross-country experiences and empirical analyses, we shed light on how successful policies supported building human capital and economic complexity, the type of strategy that could best suite Qatar's circumstances, and pitfalls to avoid.
Keywords:
Economic complexity; export diversification; human capital; innovation; Qatar; Third National Development Strategy; suite Qatar's circumstances; based economy; goods export; lessons Qatar; Korea's export mix; Exports; Comparative advantage; Export performance; Middle East; Eastern Europe; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
AI readiness; AI adoption; B. Qatar's progress; artificial intelligence in Qatar; innovation policy; Export diversification; Capital spending; Exports; Human capital; Global; Middle East; Eastern Europe; Europe
Cover Staff Climate Notes
Key Challenges Faced by Fossil Fuel Exporters during the Energy Transition
Diego Mesa Puyo
,
Augustus J Panton
,
Tarun Sridhar
,
Martin Stuermer
,
Christoph Ungerer
, and
Alice Tianbo Zhang
The global energy transition is affecting fossil fuel exporters from multiple angles. It is adding to longstanding uncertainties on relative movements of fossil fuel demand and supply—which impact fossil fuel-related exports, fiscal flows, investment and subsequently external and fiscal accounts, economic growth, and employment. While policymakers are very familiar with these challenges, they now also face expectations of a permanent decline in the long-run global demand for fossil fuels. Key factors that could determine country-level impacts include (i) the type of fossil fuel a country exports (ii) extraction costs and (iii) country characteristics. The monitoring and mitigation of fiscal risks will need to be stepped up. Fiscal policy also has a role in reducing domestic emissions, encouraging adoption of low-carbon technologies, and helping those most vulnerable to changes from the transition. Broader macroeconomic risks can be reduced by accelerating ongoing structural reforms that support alternative engines of growth. Low- or zero-carbon emission energy industries could offer new avenues that build on existing fossil fuel knowledge and infrastructure. Concurrently, improved financial regulation and supervision could reduce financial sector exposures. Finally, international coordination on the design and implementation of climate policy as well as international transfer schemes (financing and capacity development) could reduce uncertainties surrounding the transition path and associated adverse economic consequences.
Keywords:
Macroeconomic policy; climate change; energy transition; fossil fuel exporters; commodity market; climate mitigation; economic diversification; international coordination; IMF staff Climate note; IMF staff Climate Note 2024/001; fossil fuel exporter; building financial asset buffer; cost exporter; Non-renewable resources; Exports; Oil; Renewable energy; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
High Performance Export Portfolio: Design Growth-Enhancing Export Structure with Machine Learning
Ms. Natasha X Che
and
Xuege Zhang
This paper studies the relationship between export structure and growth performance. We design an export recommendation system using a collaborative filtering algorithm based on countries' revealed comparative advantages. The system is used to produce export portfolio recommendations covering over 190 economies and over 30 years. We find that economies with their export structure more aligned with the recommended export structure achieve better growth performance, in terms of both higher GDP growth rate and lower growth volatility. These findings demonstrate that export structure matters for obtaining high and stable growth. Our recommendation system can serve as a practical tool for policymakers seeking actionable insights on their countries’ export potential and diversification strategies that may be complex and hard to quantify.
Keywords:
export diversification; comparative advantage; machine learning; collaborative filtering; economic growth; international trade; export structure; export portfolio recommendation; export recommendation system; performance export portfolio; export potential; Exports; Comparative advantage; Export diversification; Human capital; Total factor productivity; Global; East Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Intelligent Export Diversification: An Export Recommendation System with Machine Learning
Ms. Natasha X Che
This paper presents a set of collaborative filtering algorithms that produce product recommendations to diversify and optimize a country's export structure in support of sustainable long-term growth. The recommendation system is able to accurately predict the historical trends in export content and structure for high-growth countries, such as China, India, Poland, and Chile, over 20-year spans. As a contemporary case study, the system is applied to Paraguay, to create recommendations for the country's export diversification strategy.
Keywords:
WP; SITC product lists; price boom; product-space literature; country-product space; export basket; export product; KNN implementation; export diversificiation; comparative advantage; machine learning; collaborative filtering; economic growth; international trade; RCA export; export structure; diversification strategy; KNN recommender; export diversification recommendation; product name; Exports; Export diversification; Personal income; East Asia; Caribbean; Africa; Global; export diversification strategy
Cover IMF Working Papers
Accounting for Cloud Computing in the National Accounts
Mr. Andrew Baer
,
Mr. Kwangwon Lee
, and
James Tebrake
Digitalization and the innovative use of digital technologies is changing the way we work, learn, communicate, buy and sell products. One emerging digital technology of growing importance is cloud computing. More and more businesses, governments and households are purchasing hardware and software services from a small number of large cloud computing providers. This change is having an impact on how macroeconomic data are compiled and how they are interpreted by users. Specifically, this is changing the information and communication technology (ICT) investment pattern from one where ICT investment was diversified across many industries to a more concentrated investment pattern. Additionally, this is having an impact on cross-border flows of commercial services since the cloud service provider does not need to be located in the same economic territory as the purchaser of cloud services. This paper will outline some of the methodological and compilation challenges facing statisticians and analysts, provide some tools that can be used to overcome these challenges and highlight some of the implications these changes are having on the way users of national accounts data look at investment and trade in commercial services.
Keywords:
WP; cloud computing service; cloud service; IT service; cloud computing firm; Cloud storage service; computer processing firm; computer services export; delivery model; sector use cloud computing service; software service; use cloud computing service; cloud computing; information and communication technology; national accounts; data center; f irst company; service delivery model; cloud data storage service; cloud services from the IT services firm; cloud computing provider; Imports; Service exports; Information technology in revenue administration; Employee contributions; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
World Seaborne Trade in Real Time: A Proof of Concept for Building AIS-based Nowcasts from Scratch
Diego A. Cerdeiro
,
Andras Komaromi
,
Yang Liu
, and
Mamoon Saeed
Maritime data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) have emerged as a potential source for real time information on trade activity. However, no globally applicable end-to-end solution has been published to transform raw AIS messages into economically meaningful, policy-relevant indicators of international trade. Our paper proposes and tests a set of algorithms to fill this gap. We build indicators of world seaborne trade using raw data from the radio signals that the global vessel fleet emits for navigational safety purposes. We leverage different machine-learning techniques to identify port boundaries, construct port-to-port voyages, and estimate trade volumes at the world, bilateral and within-country levels. Our methodology achieves a good fit with official trade statistics for many countries and for the world in aggregate. We also show the usefulness of our approach for sectoral analyses of crude oil trade, and for event studies such as Hurricane Maria and the effect of measures taken to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus. Going forward, ongoing refinements of our algorithms, additional data on vessel characteristics, and country-specific knowledge should help improve the performance of our general approach for several country cases.
Keywords:
port visit; machine-learning technique; data from the Automatic Identification System; port call; trade activity; Imports; Exports; Oil; Machine learning; Trade balance; Global
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, Fall-Winter 2019
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
It has been two years since the trade tensions erupted and not only captured policymakers’ but also the research community’s attention. Research has quickly zoomed in on understanding trade war rhetoric, tariff implementation, and economic impacts. The first article in the December 2019 issue sheds light on the consequences of the recent trade barriers.
Keywords:
IRB; trade; debt measurement; exporter; policy session; firm; Mundell-Fleming Lecture; US-China trade tension; tariff factor; Exports; Tariffs; Infrastructure; Big data; Trade liberalization; Global; East Asia; North America; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; Africa; threshold ModelsHow; ship movement; TrajectoriesThe global financial crisis; Imports; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Big Data on Vessel Traffic: Nowcasting Trade Flows in Real Time
Mr. Serkan Arslanalp
,
Mr. Marco Marini
, and
Ms. Patrizia Tumbarello
Vessel traffic data based on the Automatic Identification System (AIS) is a big data source for nowcasting trade activity in real time. Using Malta as a benchmark, we develop indicators of trade and maritime activity based on AIS-based port calls. We test the quality of these indicators by comparing them with official statistics on trade and maritime statistics. If the challenges associated with port call data are overcome through appropriate filtering techniques, we show that these emerging “big data” on vessel traffic could allow statistical agencies to complement existing data sources on trade and introduce new statistics that are more timely (real time), offering an innovative way to measure trade activity. That, in turn, could facilitate faster detection of turning points in economic activity. The approach could be extended to create a real-time worldwide indicator of global trade activity.
Keywords:
WP; AIS data; trade statistics; cargo load indicator; trade activity; trade data; port call data; Trade balance; Trade in goods; Imports; Big data; Exports; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on policies to drive diversification for Qatar. Diversification is important for a large commodity exporter like Qatar: it helps manage temporary shocks and prepare for sweeping changes to the economic setting. Qatar’s large financial holdings can help diversify revenues. Both structural reforms to improve the business environment and sector-specific policies can support diversification of activity and exports. Sector-specific policies should build on existing economic strengths in areas with room for exports and innovation. Emphasis should be placed on developing expertise in specific clusters. Export markets and competition provide crucial mechanisms to ensure discipline. Further diversification is important to help Qatar manage temporary shocks and prepare for far-reaching shifts to the economic context. Well-targeted, structured, and sequenced policies to encourage specific sectors can also play a role in diversifying Qatar’s economy. Export markets and competition should be deliberately used to hold recipients of support accountable. Policies to encourage specific sectors have resulted in little more than inefficient import substitution in many countries. Avoiding this outcome requires discipline: support should be withdrawn in the absence of progress.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Qatar; price; government spending; IMF export diversification; hydrocarbon reserve; Qatar's Second National Development Strategy; exposure to oil; expenditures decision; hydrocarbon price; medium-expenditure framework; Qatar's economy; Exports; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal rules; Global