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Middle East and Central Asia > Qatar

You are looking at 1 - 3 of 3 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Balance of trade x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
World Seaborne Trade in Real Time: A Proof of Concept for Building AIS-based Nowcasts from Scratch
Diego A. Cerdeiro
,
Andras Komaromi
,
Yang Liu
, and
Mamoon Saeed
Maritime data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) have emerged as a potential source for real time information on trade activity. However, no globally applicable end-to-end solution has been published to transform raw AIS messages into economically meaningful, policy-relevant indicators of international trade. Our paper proposes and tests a set of algorithms to fill this gap. We build indicators of world seaborne trade using raw data from the radio signals that the global vessel fleet emits for navigational safety purposes. We leverage different machine-learning techniques to identify port boundaries, construct port-to-port voyages, and estimate trade volumes at the world, bilateral and within-country levels. Our methodology achieves a good fit with official trade statistics for many countries and for the world in aggregate. We also show the usefulness of our approach for sectoral analyses of crude oil trade, and for event studies such as Hurricane Maria and the effect of measures taken to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus. Going forward, ongoing refinements of our algorithms, additional data on vessel characteristics, and country-specific knowledge should help improve the performance of our general approach for several country cases.
Keywords:
port visit; machine-learning technique; data from the Automatic Identification System; port call; trade activity; Imports; Exports; Oil; Machine learning; Trade balance; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Big Data on Vessel Traffic: Nowcasting Trade Flows in Real Time
Mr. Serkan Arslanalp
,
Mr. Marco Marini
, and
Ms. Patrizia Tumbarello
Vessel traffic data based on the Automatic Identification System (AIS) is a big data source for nowcasting trade activity in real time. Using Malta as a benchmark, we develop indicators of trade and maritime activity based on AIS-based port calls. We test the quality of these indicators by comparing them with official statistics on trade and maritime statistics. If the challenges associated with port call data are overcome through appropriate filtering techniques, we show that these emerging “big data” on vessel traffic could allow statistical agencies to complement existing data sources on trade and introduce new statistics that are more timely (real time), offering an innovative way to measure trade activity. That, in turn, could facilitate faster detection of turning points in economic activity. The approach could be extended to create a real-time worldwide indicator of global trade activity.
Keywords:
WP; AIS data; trade statistics; cargo load indicator; trade activity; trade data; port call data; Trade balance; Trade in goods; Imports; Big data; Exports; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
External Stability Under Alternative Nominal Exchange Rate Anchors: An Application to the GCC Countries
Mr. Zubair Iqbal
and
Mr. S. Nuri Erbas
Import and export stability is examined under two alternative nominal exchange rate anchors, the U.S. dollar and the SDR. Stability under the two pegs depends critically on import and export elasticity with respect to exchange rates. The implications of import and export elasticity for an optimal currency basket are also explored. The elasticity estimates for the GCC countries suggest that the SDR peg may not outperform the dollar peg in improving external stability. Nevertheless, switching to some other nominal exchange rate anchor may improve external stability, a possibility that remains to be explored.
Keywords:
WP; SDR peg; dollar peg; SDR zone; SDR currency; dollar-denominated import; Imports; Exports; Currencies; Exchange rates; Trade balance