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Middle East and Central Asia > Qatar

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Cover Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024
Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024
Steadying the Course: Uncertainty, Artificial Intelligence, and Financial Stability
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

Chapter 1 shows that although near-term financial stability risks have remained contained, mounting vulnerabilities could worsen future downside risks by amplifying shocks, which have become more probable because of the widening disconnect between elevated economic uncertainty and low financial volatility. Chapter 2 presents evidence that high macroeconomic uncertainty can threaten macrofinancial stability by exacerbating downside tail risks to markets, credit supply, and GDP growth. These relationships are stronger when debt vulnerabilities are elevated, or financial market volatility is low (during episodes of a macro-market disconnect). Chapter 3 assesses recent developments in AI and Generative AI and their implications for capital markets. It presents new analytical work and results from a global outreach to market participants and regulators, delineates potential benefits and risks that may arise from the widespread adoption of these new technologies, and makes suggestions for policy responses.

Keywords:
financial stability; vulnerabilities; uncertainty; risk; artificial intelligence; capital markets; tail risk; uncertainty index; monetary policy; mortgage rate; market liquidity risk; fiscal policy uncertainty; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Financial sector stability; Sovereign bonds; Credit; Global; Middle East; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; South America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability in the Arab Region
Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad
,
Heba Abdel Monem
, and
Pilar Garcia Martinez
Several characteristics of the structure of the Arab economies, their economic policy framework, and their banking systems make macroprudential policy a particular relevant tool. For most oil exporters, heavy reliance on the extractive sector for generating fiscal revenues and export earnings translates into increased vulnerabilities to oil price shocks. In the case of oil importers, relatively small external and fiscal buffers make them highly vulnerable to shocks. This paper discusses the experience of Arab countries in implementing macroprudential policies and contains recommendations to strengthen their macroprudential framework.
Keywords:
WP; capital market; banking sector; legal reserve; price index; liquidity window; market cap; private sector; Macroprudential policy; systemic risk; credit; financial stability; a number of central banks; supervisory function; countries central banks; liquidity level; monetary policy independence; liquidity regulation; capital market authority; FX loan; Financial sector stability; Macroprudential policy instruments; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Oil Prices, Financial Stability, and the Use of Countercyclical Macroprudential Policies in the GCC
International Monetary Fund
Economic and financial developments in the GCC economies are interwoven with oil price movements. GCC economies are highly dependent on oil and gas exports. Oil price upturns lead to higher oil revenues, stronger fiscal and external positions, and higher government spending. This boosts corporate profitability and equity prices and strengthens bank balance sheets, but can also lead to the buildup of systemic vulnerabilities in the financial sector. Banks in the GCC are well-capitalized, liquid, and profitable at present, and well-positioned to manage structural systemic risks. However, oil-macro-financial linkages mean that asset quality and liquidity in the financial system may deteriorate in a low oil price environment and financial sector stress may emerge. The scope for amplification of oil price shocks through the financial sector suggests a role for a countercyclical approach to macroprudential policies. Countercyclical macroprudential policy can prove useful to reduce the buildup of systemic risks in the financial sector during upswings, and to cushion against disruption to financial services during periods of financial sector stress. The GCC countries have considerable experience with implementing a wide range of macroprudential policies, but these policies have not generally been adjusted through the cycle. GCC central banks implemented several macroprudential measures before the global financial crisis and have continued to enhance their macroprudential frameworks and toolkits to limit systemic financial sector risks. Although there is some evidence of macroprudential tools being adjusted in a countercyclical way, most of the tools have not been adjusted over the financial cycle. Further enhancements to the GCC macroprudential framework are needed to support the countercyclical use of these policies. A comprehensive and established framework, supported by strong institutional capacity, is essential for countercyclical macroprudential policies. This framework should provide clear assignment of responsibilities and guidance on how policies will be implemented to maintain financial stability and manage systemic risks over the financial cycle. Addressing data gaps and the further development of reliable early warning indicators in signaling potential systemic stress are needed to help guide the countercyclical use of a broad set of macroprudential policies. Expanding the countercyclical policy toolkit and its coverage can help address emerging financial sector risks. The implementation of countercyclical capital buffers and dynamic loan loss provisions could boost resilience in line with systemic risks faced in GCC economies. At the same time, using existing macroprudential policies countercyclically would prove useful to address emerging financial sector risks in a more targeted way. Expanding the coverage of macroprudential tools to nonbanks can help boost effectiveness by reducing leakages.
Keywords:
PP; oil price; GCC country; GCC bank; GCC economy; GCC business cycle; financial system; Oil prices; Macroprudential policy; Macroprudential policy instruments; Financial sector risk; Nonperforming loans; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Macroprudential Policy in the GCC Countries
Ms. Zsofia Arvai
,
Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad
, and
Mr. Kentaro Katayama
As undiversified commodity exporters, GCC economies are prone to pro-cyclical systemic risk in the financial system. During periods of high hydrocarbon prices, favorable economic prospects make the financial sector keen to lend, leading to higher domestic credit growth and easier access to external financing. Fiscal policy is a very important tool for macroeconomic management, but due to the significant time lags and expenditure rigidities, it has not been a flexible enough tool to prevent credit booms and the build-up of systemic risk in the GCC. This, together with limited monetary policy independence because of the pegged exchange rate, means that macro-prudential policy has a particularly important role in limiting systemic risk in the financial system. This importance is reinforced by the underdeveloped financial markets in the region that provide limited risk management tools and shortcomings in crisis resolution frameworks. This paper will discuss the importance of macro-prudential policy in the GCC countries, look at the experience with macro-prudential policies in the boom/bust cycle in the second half of the 2000s, and use the broad frameworks being developed in the Fund and elsewhere to discuss ways existing frameworks and policy toolkits in the region can be strengthened given the characteristics of the GCC economies.
Keywords:
SDN; GCC country; GCC Financial; lending; bank; market; Macroprudential policy; systemic risk; credit; financial stability; GCC economy; GCC regulator; GCC bank; GCC authorities; fixed income; Financial sector stability; Macroprudential policy instruments; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Arab Emirates: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on the United Arab Emirates highlights the macroprudential policies. The fixed exchange rate and persistent structural liquidity surpluses in upswings add to the difficulties in managing aggregate demand contain credit expansion. The exchange rate peg and the open capital account allow limited room to deviate from the U.S. interest rates. Monetary policy is further constrained by limited liquidity management capabilities, as liquidity forecasting is in its infancy, and central banks liquidity management relies primarily on reserve requirements and standing facilities for liquidity absorption. The lack of a local currency fixed-income market raises the prominence of real estate as an asset class for investment and the exposure of the banking system to the real estate sector.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; company; GRE; Yes; Dubai; GCC country; GRE debt; debt management; major GRE restructuring; Dubai GRE; Dubai debt restructuring deal; CBU regulation; GRE risk; GCC economy; Dubai World restructuring; Dubai government; Macroprudential policy; Financial sector stability; Corporate governance; Systemic risk; Debt restructuring; Global; Middle East