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Middle East and Central Asia > Qatar

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 22 items for :

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  • Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that Qatar’s decade-long efforts to diversify the economy culminated into the successful hosting of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Banks are well capitalized, liquid, and profitable, with the capital adequacy ratio and return on equity at 19 and 14.6 percent, respectively, in the second quarter of 2023. Banks’ nonresident deposits fell by more than one-third from the recent peak, partially replaced by higher public sector domestic deposits, reducing vulnerabilities amid tight global financial conditions. Structural reforms continue to progress, including to enhance protection and mobility of expatriate labor, improve the business environment, promote public–private partnerships, and further attract private investment through the residency program and broadened foreign ownership provisions. The pension scheme has been expanded to more Qataris in the private sector to promote private sector employment. If downside risks materialize, Qatar has strong policy buffers to mitigate the negative impact. On the upside, accelerated reform efforts guided by Third National Development Strategy could further promote diversification and boost potential growth.
Keywords:
LNG production expansion; money market rate; financial asset; IMF staff calculation; labor market dynamics; policy buffer; Fiscal stance; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Public sector; Global; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Gulf Cooperation Council: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) discusses economic prospects and policy priorities for the GCC countries. A comprehensive package of policies should be implemented to respond to near-term shocks and uncertainty and to firmly address medium- and long-term challenges. In the near term, fiscal policy should remain prudent, avoiding procyclical spending and using the windfall from higher oil prices to rebuild buffers. Targeted and temporary fiscal measures could be undertaken to respond to shocks, if they materialize. In the medium term, GCC countries should continue pursuing fiscal consolidation consistent with ensuring intergenerational equity and sustainability, supported by a credible rules-based medium-term fiscal framework. Continued financial sector reforms are needed to support growth and stability. Structural policies should continue focusing on diversifying the economies away from hydrocarbon. Reform efforts aimed at further enhancing product market regulations, labor markets, and governance will spur growth, as will efficient investments in digital and green initiatives to accelerate transformation and support energy transition. The industrial policy should be carefully calibrated and not substitute for structural reforms while minimizing related inefficiencies.
Keywords:
Gulf Cooperation Council; GCC Countries; OPEC; GCC country; centrality indices; policies in the GCC; GCC net; GCC's acceleration; financial market; Inflation; Oil prices; Climate finance; Financial statements; Global; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
AI and Macroeconomic Modeling: Deep Reinforcement Learning in an RBC model
Tohid Atashbar
and
Rui Aruhan Shi
This study seeks to construct a basic reinforcement learning-based AI-macroeconomic simulator. We use a deep RL (DRL) approach (DDPG) in an RBC macroeconomic model. We set up two learning scenarios, one of which is deterministic without the technological shock and the other is stochastic. The objective of the deterministic environment is to compare the learning agent's behavior to a deterministic steady-state scenario. We demonstrate that in both deterministic and stochastic scenarios, the agent's choices are close to their optimal value. We also present cases of unstable learning behaviours. This AI-macro model may be enhanced in future research by adding additional variables or sectors to the model or by incorporating different DRL algorithms.
Keywords:
Reinforcement learning; Deep reinforcement learning; Artificial intelligence; RL; DRL; Learning algorithms; Macro modeling; RBC; Real business cycles; DDPG; Deep deterministic policy gradient; Actor-critic algorithms; RBC model; AI-macroeconomic simulator; AI experiment; learning algorithm; Machine learning; Rational expectations; Debt relief; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Deep Reinforcement Learning: Emerging Trends in Macroeconomics and Future Prospects
Tohid Atashbar
and
Rui Aruhan Shi
The application of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) in economics has been an area of active research in recent years. A number of recent works have shown how deep reinforcement learning can be used to study a variety of economic problems, including optimal policy-making, game theory, and bounded rationality. In this paper, after a theoretical introduction to deep reinforcement learning and various DRL algorithms, we provide an overview of the literature on deep reinforcement learning in economics, with a focus on the main applications of deep reinforcement learning in macromodeling. Then, we analyze the potentials and limitations of deep reinforcement learning in macroeconomics and identify a number of issues that need to be addressed in order for deep reinforcement learning to be more widely used in macro modeling.
Keywords:
Reinforcement learning; Deep reinforcement learning; Artificial intelligence, RL; DRL; Learning algorithms; Macro modeling; RL algorithm overview; trust region policy optimization; DRL algorithm; decision process; RL algorithm; Machine learning; Artificial intelligence; Debt relief; General equilibrium models; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Swift and decisive policy response to the Covid-19 pandemic has helped to mitigate the health and economic impact of the crisis. Fast vaccination rollout has also strengthened the economy’s resilience to new pandemic waves, paving the way for a speedy recovery. As the economy rebounds, a gradual exit from pandemic support measures is underway.
Keywords:
hydrocarbon price; CPI data; money market rate; financial asset; headline inflation; IMF's transparency policy; COVID-19; External sector statistics; Foreign assets; Global; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Rwanda: Third Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director and Staff Representative for Rwanda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic is having an adverse impact on Rwanda’s economy, despite a sizeable policy response. Output in 2020 is projected to contract by 0.2 percent, compared to an 8 percent increase expected pre-pandemic. The government’s early actions helped contain the spread of the virus and mitigate its economic impact, supported by financing from Rwanda’s development partners, including from the IMF under the RCF. With the number of infections contained, the authorities are gradually easing up containment measures.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; IT system; assessment of a reform target; staff appraisal; real-time assessment; interest rate
Cover IMF Working Papers
Debt Is Not Free
Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia
,
Mr. Paulo A Medas
,
Pranav Gupta
, and
Yuan Xiang
With public debt soaring across the world, a growing concern is whether current debt levels are a harbinger of fiscal crises, thereby restricting the policy space in a downturn. The empirical evidence to date is however inconclusive, and the true cost of debt may be overstated if interest rates remain low. To shed light into this debate, this paper re-examines the importance of public debt as a leading indicator of fiscal crises using machine learning techniques to account for complex interactions previously ignored in the literature. We find that public debt is the most important predictor of crises, showing strong non-linearities. Moreover, beyond certain debt levels, the likelihood of crises increases sharply regardless of the interest-growth differential. Our analysis also reveals that the interactions of public debt with inflation and external imbalances can be as important as debt levels. These results, while not necessarily implying causality, show governments should be wary of high public debt even when borrowing costs seem low.
Keywords:
WP; fiscal crisis; interest-growth differential; crisis threshold; crisis observation; probability of a crisis
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation discusses that stronger real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is envisaged in the near term, with a recovery in hydrocarbon output. Medium-term growth will be buoyed by increased gas production and non-hydrocarbon growth. Expenditure consolidation would help to sustain fiscal and external surpluses. Ample liquidity will enable credit growth to support non-hydrocarbon GDP. Trade and geopolitical tensions could undermine investor confidence and weaken fiscal and external positions. The policy priorities are fiscal consolidation, strengthened fiscal policy frameworks, enhanced resiliency of the financial sector, financial inclusion, and a diversified economy. The financial sector remains sound, underpinned by strong profitability and capital. Strengthening the regulatory and supervisory frameworks would help to bolster financial stability. Attention to women’s empowerment by introducing legislation emphasizing equality in remuneration and avoiding gender-based discrimination would support inclusive growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Qatar; GDP; IMF staff estimate; central bank; economy; hydrocarbon price; headline inflation; financial asset; Qatar's economy; QCB website; Oil prices; Fiscal stance; Global; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Qatar
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Qatar’s growth performance remains resilient. The direct economic and financial impact of the diplomatic rift between Qatar and some countries in the region has been manageable. Nonhydrocarbon real GDP growth is estimated to have moderated to about 4 percent in 2017 owing to on-going fiscal consolidation and the effect of the diplomatic rift. Headline inflation remains subdued, primarily owing to lower rental prices. The near-term growth outlook is broadly positive. Overall, GDP growth of 2.6 percent is projected for 2018. Inflation is expected to peak at 3.9 percent in 2018 before easing to 2.2 percent in the medium term. The underlying fiscal position continues to improve.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; near-term growth outlook; GDDS summary table II data coverage; growth; Non-hydrocarbon real GDP growth; private sector engagement; growth performance; real estate price index; liquidity profile; hydrocarbon price; Commercial banks; Credit; Fiscal stance; Global; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Qatar
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights the adverse impact of lower hydrocarbon prices on the macroeconomic performance of Qatar. Growth has slowed despite still-resilient nonhydrocarbon activity. Real GDP growth of 2.7 percent is estimated for 2016. Inflation remained low despite subsidy cuts, averaging about 2.7 percent in 2016. Growth is expected to slow in the medium term as public investment growth tapers off and hydrocarbon output continues to slow. Further subsidy cuts, a moderate recovery in global commodity prices, and the introduction of a value-added tax are expected to improve the fiscal and external balances gradually over the near to medium term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; Qatari authorities; IMF staff estimate; hydrocarbon price; banking system liquidity; exhaustible hydrocarbon wealth; Public investment spending; Oil prices; Government debt management; Global; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa