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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Growth normalization after the 2022 FIFA World Cup continued with signs of activities strengthening more recently. Fiscal and external surpluses softened mainly due to lower hydrocarbon prices. Banks are healthy but pockets of vulnerabilities remain. Reform momentum has strengthened, guided by the Third National Development Strategy (NDS3).
Joshua Aslett
,
Gustavo González
,
Stuart Hamilton
, and
Miguel Pecho
В этой технической справке представлена аналитика для управления комплаенс-рисками в рамках налогового администрирования. Вместе с сопровождающим ее набором инструментов эта справка предназначена для использования в качестве стартового набора для содействия развитию потенциала в области комплаенс-планирования , оценки рисков и работы групп по сбору аналитических данных. В этой справке, разработанной в первую очередь для начинающих аналитиков, которые только приступают к работе в области налогового администрирования, представлены как теоретические, так и практические аспекты аналитики. Его инструментарий состоит из первоначального набора аналитических форм, призванных помочь реализовать представленную здесь теорию на практике в таких областях, как: 1) комплаенс-планирование; 2) составление профиля налогоплательщика; и 3) отбор кандидатов для проведения проверок.
Joshua Aslett
,
Gustavo González
,
Stuart Hamilton
, and
Miguel Pecho
This technical note introduces analytics for compliance risk management in tax administration. Together with its accompanying toolkit, the note is intended as a starter kit to support capacity development in compliance planning, risk, and intelligence groups. Developed primarily for emerging analysts new to tax administration, the note presents both theory and practical aspects of analytics. Its toolkit is comprised of an initial collection of analytics templates designed to assist in turning the theory presented into practice in the areas of: (1) compliance planning; (2) taxpayer profiling; and (3) audit case selection.
Mr. Vikram Haksar
,
Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow
,
Emran Islam
,
Andrew Giddings
,
Kathleen Kao
,
Emanuel Kopp
, and
Gabriel Quiros
The ongoing economic and financial digitalization is making individual data a key input and source of value for companies across sectors, from bigtechs and pharmaceuticals to manufacturers and financial services providers. Data on human behavior and choices—our “likes,” purchase patterns, locations, social activities, biometrics, and financing choices—are being generated, collected, stored, and processed at an unprecedented scale.
Mr. Andrew Baer
,
Mr. Kwangwon Lee
, and
James Tebrake
Digitalization and the innovative use of digital technologies is changing the way we work, learn, communicate, buy and sell products. One emerging digital technology of growing importance is cloud computing. More and more businesses, governments and households are purchasing hardware and software services from a small number of large cloud computing providers. This change is having an impact on how macroeconomic data are compiled and how they are interpreted by users. Specifically, this is changing the information and communication technology (ICT) investment pattern from one where ICT investment was diversified across many industries to a more concentrated investment pattern. Additionally, this is having an impact on cross-border flows of commercial services since the cloud service provider does not need to be located in the same economic territory as the purchaser of cloud services. This paper will outline some of the methodological and compilation challenges facing statisticians and analysts, provide some tools that can be used to overcome these challenges and highlight some of the implications these changes are having on the way users of national accounts data look at investment and trade in commercial services.
Mr. Emre Alper
and
Michal Miktus
Higher digital connectivity is expected to bring opportunities to leapfrog development in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Experience within the region demonstrates that if there is an adequate digital infrastructure and a supportive business environment, new forms of business spring up and create jobs for the educated as well as the less educated. The paper first confirms the global digital divide through the unsupervised machine learning clustering K-means algorithm. Next, it derives a composite digital connectivity index, in the spirit of De Muro-Mazziotta-Pareto, for about 190 economies. Descriptive analysis shows that majority of SSA countries lag in digital connectivity, specifically in infrastructure, internet usage, and knowledge. Finally, using fractional logit regressions we document that better business enabling and regulatory environment, financial access, and urbanization are associated with higher digital connectivity.
Dong Frank Wu
and
Mr. Friedrich Schneider
This paper is the first attempt to directly explore the long-run nonlinear relationship between the shadow economy and level of development. Using a dataset of 158 countries over the period from 1996 to 2015, our results reveal a robust U-shaped relationship between the shadow economy size and GDP per capita. Our results imply that the shadow economy tends to increase when economic development surpasses a given threshold or at least does not disappear. Our findings suggest that special attention should be given to the country’s level of development when designing policies to tackle issues related to the shadow economy.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes Kenya’s success in boosting financial inclusion. Kenya has become a regional and global leader in mobilizing new technologies to advance financial inclusion, poverty reduction, and growth. The rapid progress of financial inclusion in Kenya has been a result of a friendly environment for the absorption of information technology, dynamic local banks, and open and stable regulations. Advances in financial inclusion over the past 10 years have allowed Kenyans to reap many of the benefits of financial access at a much faster pace than the typical cycle of financial deepening in low- and middle-income countries. Mobile financial services have lowered the transaction cost of remittances, allowing Kenyan households to smooth consumption in the face of shocks and significantly reducing poverty.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses measures required to enhance nonhydrocarbon revenue to support fiscal consolidation in Qatar. Qatar depends heavily on the hydrocarbon sector for exports and revenue receipts. The authorities have embarked on fiscal consolidation, underpinned by cuts to current expenditures and enhanced efforts to raise additional revenue. Safeguarding Qatar’s wealth to ensure intergenerational equity and ensure adequate resources for the implementation of the second National Development Strategy would entail increased mobilization of nonhydrocarbon revenue in the near to medium term. Exploring other sources of tax revenue to diversify the government revenue structure and build a stable tax revenue base is also critical.
Mr. Tim Callen
,
Reda Cherif
,
Fuad Hasanov
,
Mr. Amgad Hegazy
, and
Padamja Khandelwal
Abstract: The economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are heavily reliant on oil. Greater economic diversification would reduce their exposure to volatility and uncertainty in the global oil market, help create jobs in the private sector, increase productivity and sustainable growth, and help create the non-oil economy that will be needed in the future when oil revenues start to dwindle. The GCC countries have followed many of the standard policies that are usually thought to promote more diversified economies, including reforms to improve the business climate, the development of domestic infrastructure, financial deepening, and improvements in education. Nevertheless, success to date has been limited. This paper argues that increased diversification will require realigning incentives for firms and workers in the economies—fixing these incentives is the “missing link” in the GCC countries’ diversification strategies. At present, producing non-tradables is less risky and more profitable for firms as they can benefit from the easy availability of low-wage foreign labor and the rapid growth in government spending, while the continued availability of high-paying and secure public sector jobs discourages nationals from pursuing entrepreneurship and private sector employment. Measures to begin to address these incentive issues could include limiting and reorienting government spending, strengthening private sector competition, providing guarantees and financial support for those firms engaged in export activity, and implementing labor market reforms to make nationals more competitive for private sector employment.