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Middle East and Central Asia > Qatar

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 102 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Financial Economics x
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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Estimating Fiscal Multiplier for Qatar: Qatar
Ken Miyajima
Econometric results suggest that Qatar’s strong capital spending multiplier became less impactful as the stock of capital rose to a high level, likely as the marginal impact declined. This supports Qatar’s strategy to shifts the State’s role to an enabler of private sector-led growth, focusing on expenditure to support build human capital and implementation of broader reform guided by the Third National Development Strategy.
Keywords:
Capital spending; fiscal multiplier; GCC; Qatar; strategy to shift; Qatar's strategy; copyright page; Qatar country dummy; allocation decision; Fiscal multipliers; Current spending; Stocks; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council: Pursuing Visions Amid Geopolitical Turbulence: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries have successfully weathered recent turbulence in the Middle East, and their economic prospects remain favorable. Nonhydrocarbon activity has been strong amid reform implementation, although overall growth has decelerated due to cuts in oil production. The growth outlook is positive, as the envisaged easing of oil production cuts and natural gas expansion spur the recovery in the hydrocarbon sector, while the nonhydrocarbon economy continues to expand. External buffers remain comfortable despite current account balances having narrowed. Risks around the outlook are broadly balanced in the near term. More challenging medium-term risks, especially in the context of geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change, call for action on policy priorities to continue to strengthen the private sector and to diversify the economy.
Keywords:
economic diversification; financial stability; fiscal sustainability; GCC; productivity improvements; regional integration; GCC country; policy priority; B. GCC; GCC well; GCC public sector balance sheet; Labor markets; Fiscal rules; Total factor productivity; Global; Middle East; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024
Global Financial Stability Report, October 2024
Steadying the Course: Uncertainty, Artificial Intelligence, and Financial Stability
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

Chapter 1 shows that although near-term financial stability risks have remained contained, mounting vulnerabilities could worsen future downside risks by amplifying shocks, which have become more probable because of the widening disconnect between elevated economic uncertainty and low financial volatility. Chapter 2 presents evidence that high macroeconomic uncertainty can threaten macrofinancial stability by exacerbating downside tail risks to markets, credit supply, and GDP growth. These relationships are stronger when debt vulnerabilities are elevated, or financial market volatility is low (during episodes of a macro-market disconnect). Chapter 3 assesses recent developments in AI and Generative AI and their implications for capital markets. It presents new analytical work and results from a global outreach to market participants and regulators, delineates potential benefits and risks that may arise from the widespread adoption of these new technologies, and makes suggestions for policy responses.

Keywords:
financial stability; vulnerabilities; uncertainty; risk; artificial intelligence; capital markets; tail risk; uncertainty index; monetary policy; mortgage rate; market liquidity risk; fiscal policy uncertainty; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Financial sector stability; Sovereign bonds; Credit; Global; Middle East; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; South America
Cover Policy Papers
Annual Update on SDR Trading Operations
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper provides an update on the status of the SDR trading market and operations. For more than three decades, SDRs have exclusively been exchanged for freely usable currencies in transactions by agreement, primarily through the Voluntary Trading Arrangements (VTAs). A small fraction of transactions by agreement—sales or acquisitions of SDRs—has been arranged directly between parties. VTAs are bilateral arrangements between the Fund and SDR department participants or prescribed holders, in which the VTA participants agree to buy and sell SDRs within certain limits. The paper covers SDR trading operations during the period September 2023 to August 2024.
Keywords:
SDR trading capacity; SDR sale; SDR department participant; SDR amount; IMF SDR webpage; SDR interest rate; Currencies; Liquidity; Trading arrangements; Freely usable currencies; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Singapore: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Singapore
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Singapore highlights that following a slowdown in 2023, growth is projected to recover gradually to 2.1 percent in 2024. After reaching 6.1 percent in 2022, inflation has steadily declined to 2.7 percent in April 2024. The pace of disinflation has nonetheless been gradual, with signs of persistent price pressures including from a tight labor market. With risks to global growth now broadly balanced, downside risks to growth outlook have diminished relative to last year, but Singapore remains vulnerable to a deepening of geo-economic fragmentation. Inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. The broadly neutral fiscal stance relative to 2023 will complement the tight monetary policy stance in achieving price stability, while targeted support to vulnerable households and firms will provide temporary relief from high costs of living and business. Singapore’s financial sector remains resilient with solid capital and liquidity buffers, though vigilance against pockets of vulnerabilities is warranted, including from potential systemic risks arising from the housing market. In this context, the tight macroprudential policy stance remains appropriate.
Keywords:
article IV consultation discussion; FSAP update; Singapore economy; CPI-All Items inflation; disinflation trend; Labor markets; Inflation; Artificial intelligence; Liquidity requirements; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover Policy Papers
Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust: 2024 Borrowing Agreements with Belgium, Denmark, France, Japan, Korea, And Qatar
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents the last six borrowing agreements that were concluded between October 2023 and February 2024 to provide new loan resources to the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) as part of the loan mobilization round launched in July 2021 to support low-income countries (LICs) during the pandemic and beyond. Five of the six agreements use SDRs in the context of SDR channeling. Together these borrowing agreements provide a total amount of SDR 3.9 billion in new PRGT loan resources. The 2021 loan fundraising campaign was concluded successfully. It mobilized total contributions of SDR 14.65 billion from 17 PRGT lenders, well exceeding the SDR 12.6 billion loan target.
Keywords:
transparency policy; PRGT loan disbursement; loan resource; SDR interest rate assumption; loan pledge; Loans; Poverty reduction and development; SDR interest rate
Cover Policy Papers
The Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda, Spring Meetings 2024: Rebuild, Revive, Renew
International Monetary Fund
The global economy has shown remarkable resilience, and appears headed for a soft landing. But buffers have been eroded, growth prospects are lackluster, and vulnerable countries are at risk of falling further behind. While inflation has fallen, it remains above target in many countries. Against this background, the key policy priorities are to: (i) rebuild buffers; (ii) revive medium-term growth; and (iii) renew the IMF’s commitment to ensure that our policies, lending toolkit, and governance are fit for purpose. Central banks need to finish the job on inflation, carefully managing its descent to target. With a soft landing in sight, policymakers’ focus needs to shift to fiscal consolidation to safeguard public finances. Reviving growth prospects will require accelerating structural reforms and joint efforts by countries to tackle transformational challenges. Firmly grounded in its mandate, working with its members, and in partnership with other international organizations, the IMF will continue to serve its members with policy advice, financial lifelines, and capacity development to help safeguard their economic and financial stability, a foundation for inclusive and sustainable growth.
Keywords:
Policy agenda; IMF surveillance; IMF-WTO dialogue; global Policy agenda; quota resource; lending capacity; Fiscal consolidation; Inclusive growth; Financial sector stability; Financial sector risk; Artificial intelligence; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Resilience and Sustainability Trust―2024 Contribution Agreements with Belgium, Malta, Qatar, and Switzerland
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents Resilience and Sustainability (RST) contribution agreements finalized with four contributors between October 2023 and March 15, 2024. The concluded agreements provide for contributions in a total amount of about SDR 1.2 billion across the three RST accounts – the loan account, deposit account, and reserve account. The new agreements with four members add critical resources that support the continued smooth operations of the RST.
Keywords:
Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST); Contribution agreements; Resource adequacy; Funding; Contributions; transparency policy; deposit account claim; DA agreement; DA portion; DA contribution; DA assets; Loans; SDR interest rate
Cover IMF Working Papers
Predicting IMF-Supported Programs: A Machine Learning Approach
Tsendsuren Batsuuri
,
Shan He
,
Ruofei Hu
,
Jonathan Leslie
, and
Flora Lutz
This study applies state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques to forecast IMF-supported programs, analyzes the ML prediction results relative to traditional econometric approaches, explores non-linear relationships among predictors indicative of IMF-supported programs, and evaluates model robustness with regard to different feature sets and time periods. ML models consistently outperform traditional methods in out-of-sample prediction of new IMF-supported arrangements with key predictors that align well with the literature and show consensus across different algorithms. The analysis underscores the importance of incorporating a variety of external, fiscal, real, and financial features as well as institutional factors like membership in regional financing arrangements. The findings also highlight the varying influence of data processing choices such as feature selection, sampling techniques, and missing data imputation on the performance of different ML models and therefore indicate the usefulness of a flexible, algorithm-tailored approach. Additionally, the results reveal that models that are most effective in near and medium-term predictions may tend to underperform over the long term, thus illustrating the need for regular updates or more stable – albeit potentially near-term suboptimal – models when frequent updates are impractical.
Keywords:
Early warning systems; IMF Lending; Machine Learning; IMF arrangement; ML model; machine learning approach; state-of-the-art machine learning; machine learning model; Emergency assistance; Data processing; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work
Mauro Cazzaniga
,
Florence Jaumotte
,
Longji Li
,
Giovanni Melina
,
Augustus J Panton
,
Carlo Pizzinelli
,
Emma J Rockall
, and
Marina Mendes Tavares
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to reshape the global economy, especially in the realm of labor markets. Advanced economies will experience the benefits and pitfalls of AI sooner than emerging market and developing economies, largely due to their employment structure focused on cognitive-intensive roles. There are some consistent patterns concerning AI exposure, with women and college-educated individuals more exposed but also better poised to reap AI benefits, and older workers potentially less able to adapt to the new technology. Labor income inequality may increase if the complementarity between AI and high-income workers is strong, while capital returns will increase wealth inequality. However, if productivity gains are sufficiently large, income levels could surge for most workers. In this evolving landscape, advanced economies and more developed emerging markets need to focus on upgrading regulatory frameworks and supporting labor reallocation, while safeguarding those adversely affected. Emerging market and developing economies should prioritize developing digital infrastructure and digital skills
Keywords:
Artificial Intelligence; Labor Market; Job Displacement; Income Inequality; Advanced Economies; Emerging Market Economies; Low-Income Developing Countries; AI preparedness index; AI benefit; AI exposure; ICT employment share; AI adoption; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Income; Global; Africa