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Middle East and Central Asia > Qatar

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Predicting IMF-Supported Programs: A Machine Learning Approach
Tsendsuren Batsuuri
,
Shan He
,
Ruofei Hu
,
Jonathan Leslie
, and
Flora Lutz
This study applies state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques to forecast IMF-supported programs, analyzes the ML prediction results relative to traditional econometric approaches, explores non-linear relationships among predictors indicative of IMF-supported programs, and evaluates model robustness with regard to different feature sets and time periods. ML models consistently outperform traditional methods in out-of-sample prediction of new IMF-supported arrangements with key predictors that align well with the literature and show consensus across different algorithms. The analysis underscores the importance of incorporating a variety of external, fiscal, real, and financial features as well as institutional factors like membership in regional financing arrangements. The findings also highlight the varying influence of data processing choices such as feature selection, sampling techniques, and missing data imputation on the performance of different ML models and therefore indicate the usefulness of a flexible, algorithm-tailored approach. Additionally, the results reveal that models that are most effective in near and medium-term predictions may tend to underperform over the long term, thus illustrating the need for regular updates or more stable – albeit potentially near-term suboptimal – models when frequent updates are impractical.
Keywords:
Early warning systems; IMF Lending; Machine Learning; IMF arrangement; ML model; machine learning approach; state-of-the-art machine learning; machine learning model; Emergency assistance; Data processing; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 30, Issue 22
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Keywords:
SVminister; countr; growth facility; IMF staff country; IMF treasurer's department; IMF publication service; fund facility; Terrorism financing; Poverty reduction strategy; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Debt relief; Money laundering; Global; Africa; Caribbean; Europe; West Africa
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 30, Issue 22
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Keywords:
SV; bottom; minister; country; sc; growth facility; IMF staff country; IMF treasurer's department; fund facility; compensatory financing facility; Terrorism financing; Poverty reduction strategy; Debt relief; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Money laundering; Global; Africa; Caribbean; Europe; West Africa
Cover Summary Proceedings of the Twenty-Seventh Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors 1972
Summary Proceedings of the Twenty-Seventh Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors 1972
International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Abstract

The speeches made by officials attending the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings are published in this volume, along with the press communiqués issued by the International Monetary and Financial Committee and the Development Committee at the conclusion of the meetings.

Keywords:
AS; prefix; R. van S.; fund documents no; IBRD election; IMF election; van S.; International monetary system; Monetary systems; Currencies; International liquidity; Reserve assets; Global; Africa; Central America; Europe; Caribbean