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Middle East and Central Asia > Qatar

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 14 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects x
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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Financial Conditions and Their Growth Implications for Qatar
Dorothy Nampewo
This paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Qatar and uses the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework to examine the impact of financial conditions on Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth. The analysis shows that the FCI is an important leading indicator of Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth, highlighting its predictive potential for future economic performance. The GaR framework suggests that overall, the current downside risks to Qatar’s baseline non-hydrocarbon growth projections are relatively mild.
Keywords:
Financial conditions; non-hydrocarbon growth; Qatar; GaR framework; growth projection; Qatar's baseline; copyright page; financial conditions indicator; Financial conditions index; Oil prices; Central bank policy rate; Deposit rates; Post-clearance customs audit; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Annual Update on SDR Trading Operations
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper provides an update on the status of the SDR trading market and operations. For more than three decades, SDRs have exclusively been exchanged for freely usable currencies in transactions by agreement, primarily through the Voluntary Trading Arrangements (VTAs). A small fraction of transactions by agreement—sales or acquisitions of SDRs—has been arranged directly between parties. VTAs are bilateral arrangements between the Fund and SDR department participants or prescribed holders, in which the VTA participants agree to buy and sell SDRs within certain limits. The paper covers SDR trading operations during the period September 2023 to August 2024.
Keywords:
SDR trading capacity; SDR sale; SDR department participant; SDR amount; IMF SDR webpage; SDR interest rate; Currencies; Liquidity; Trading arrangements; Freely usable currencies; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover Policy Papers
Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust: 2024 Borrowing Agreements with Belgium, Denmark, France, Japan, Korea, And Qatar
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents the last six borrowing agreements that were concluded between October 2023 and February 2024 to provide new loan resources to the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) as part of the loan mobilization round launched in July 2021 to support low-income countries (LICs) during the pandemic and beyond. Five of the six agreements use SDRs in the context of SDR channeling. Together these borrowing agreements provide a total amount of SDR 3.9 billion in new PRGT loan resources. The 2021 loan fundraising campaign was concluded successfully. It mobilized total contributions of SDR 14.65 billion from 17 PRGT lenders, well exceeding the SDR 12.6 billion loan target.
Keywords:
transparency policy; PRGT loan disbursement; loan resource; SDR interest rate assumption; loan pledge; Loans; Poverty reduction and development; SDR interest rate
Cover Policy Papers
Resilience and Sustainability Trust―2024 Contribution Agreements with Belgium, Malta, Qatar, and Switzerland
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents Resilience and Sustainability (RST) contribution agreements finalized with four contributors between October 2023 and March 15, 2024. The concluded agreements provide for contributions in a total amount of about SDR 1.2 billion across the three RST accounts – the loan account, deposit account, and reserve account. The new agreements with four members add critical resources that support the continued smooth operations of the RST.
Keywords:
Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST); Contribution agreements; Resource adequacy; Funding; Contributions; transparency policy; deposit account claim; DA agreement; DA portion; DA contribution; DA assets; Loans; SDR interest rate
Cover IMF Working Papers
Surrogate Data Models: Interpreting Large-scale Machine Learning Crisis Prediction Models
Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau
,
Ruofei Hu
,
Maksym Ivanyna
,
Ritong Qu
, and
Cheng Zhong
Machine learning models are becoming increasingly important in the prediction of economic crises. The models, however, use datasets comprising a large number of predictors (features) which impairs model interpretability and their ability to provide adequate guidance in the design of crisis prevention and mitigation policies. This paper introduces surrogate data models as dimensionality reduction tools in large-scale crisis prediction models. The appropriateness of this approach is assessed by their application to large-scale crisis prediction models developed at the IMF. The results are consistent with economic intuition and validate the use of surrogates as interpretability tools.
Keywords:
Crisis prediction; machine learning; surrogates; explainable models; IMF ML crisis; ML crisis prediction; Annex I. IMF ML; surrogate data models; model interpretability; Early warning systems; Yield curve; Deposit rates; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Debt Is Not Free
Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia
,
Mr. Paulo A Medas
,
Pranav Gupta
, and
Yuan Xiang
With public debt soaring across the world, a growing concern is whether current debt levels are a harbinger of fiscal crises, thereby restricting the policy space in a downturn. The empirical evidence to date is however inconclusive, and the true cost of debt may be overstated if interest rates remain low. To shed light into this debate, this paper re-examines the importance of public debt as a leading indicator of fiscal crises using machine learning techniques to account for complex interactions previously ignored in the literature. We find that public debt is the most important predictor of crises, showing strong non-linearities. Moreover, beyond certain debt levels, the likelihood of crises increases sharply regardless of the interest-growth differential. Our analysis also reveals that the interactions of public debt with inflation and external imbalances can be as important as debt levels. These results, while not necessarily implying causality, show governments should be wary of high public debt even when borrowing costs seem low.
Keywords:
WP; fiscal crisis; interest-growth differential; crisis threshold; crisis observation; probability of a crisis
Cover IMF Working Papers
Saudi’s Growth and Financial Spillovers to Other GCC Countries: An Empirical Analysis
Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji
,
Mr. Sohaib Shahid
, and
Ling Zhu
This paper examines real and financial linkages between Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries. Growth spillovers from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain are found to be sizeable and statistically significant, but those to other GCC countries are not found to be significant. Equity market movements in Saudi Arabia are found to have significant implications for other GCC countries, while there is no evidence of co-movements in bonds markets. These findings suggest some degree of interdependence among GCC countries.
Keywords:
WP; GCC country; GCC sovereign bond market spillover; Growth; Gulf Corporation Council; Spillovers; growth shock; equity market movement; GCC bond spread; GCC equity; Stock markets; Yield curve; Sovereign bonds; Oil prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kenya: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes Kenya’s success in boosting financial inclusion. Kenya has become a regional and global leader in mobilizing new technologies to advance financial inclusion, poverty reduction, and growth. The rapid progress of financial inclusion in Kenya has been a result of a friendly environment for the absorption of information technology, dynamic local banks, and open and stable regulations. Advances in financial inclusion over the past 10 years have allowed Kenyans to reap many of the benefits of financial access at a much faster pace than the typical cycle of financial deepening in low- and middle-income countries. Mobile financial services have lowered the transaction cost of remittances, allowing Kenyan households to smooth consumption in the face of shocks and significantly reducing poverty.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kenya; interest rate; interest rate control; money; bank; NFCS credit; lending rate; Kenya's NFCS; foreign currency; transaction cost; remittance transaction; Interest rate policy; Double taxation; Financial inclusion; Credit; Bank credit; Africa; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council: Strengthening Liquidity Management Frameworks in Support of Stability and Growth in the GCC
International Monetary Fund
Effective liquidity management is important to promote macro-financial stability in the GCC countries. Fixed exchange rate regimes provide credible nominal anchors in the GCC countries, but combined with open capital accounts, they also entail limited monetary policy independence. At the same time, high dependence on hydrocarbon revenue has made the region vulnerable to oil price-driven liquidity swings. And the latter can affect monetary policy implementation, including by exacerbating credit and asset price cycles. This highlights the importance of frameworks aimed at forecasting liquidity and ensuring appropriate liquidity levels through the timely absorption or injection of liquidity by central banks. Over the past decade, liquidity management in the GCC countries has been based mainly on passive instruments. Abundant liquidity during times of high oil prices have placed liquidity absorption at the center of the central bank operations. Reserve requirements have helped absorb liquidity but have not been used very actively. Standing facilities, another key instrument, are more passive in nature, with the amount of liquidity absorbed or injected driven by banks rather than monetary authorities. Central banks bills or other instruments have also been used, but issuance has not systematically been based on market principles. In addition, these operations have been constrained by limited liquidity forecasting capability and the shallow nature of interbank and domestic debt markets.
Keywords:
PP; liquidity condition; GCC country; GCC liquidity; liquidity fluctuation; evolving liquidity challenge; liquidity development; liquidity environment; liquidity forecasting capability; liquidity imbalance; liquidity management effort; liquidity management instrument; liquidity price-discovery mechanism; liquidity management framework; management operation; liquidity forecasting; Liquidity; Liquidity management; Interbank markets; Oil prices; Interbank rates; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council: The Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges in the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund
Global economic activity is gaining momentum. Global growth is forecast at 3.6 percent this year, and 3.7 percent in 2018, compared to 3.2 percent in 2016. Risks around this forecast are broadly balanced in the near term, but are skewed to the downside over the medium term. The more positive global growth environment should support somewhat stronger oil demand. With inflation in advanced countries remaining subdued, monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative. GCC countries are continuing to adjust to lower oil prices. Substantial fiscal consolidation has taken place in most countries, mainly focused on expenditure reduction. This is necessary, but it has weakened non-oil growth. With the pace of fiscal consolidation set to slow, non-oil growth is expected to increase to 2.6 percent this year, from 1.8 percent last year. However, because of lower oil output, overall real GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.5 percent in 2017 from 2.2 percent in 2016. Growth prospects in the medium-term remain subdued amid relatively low oil prices and geopolitical risks. Policymakers have made a strong start in adjusting fiscal policy. While the needed pace of fiscal adjustment varies across countries depending on the fiscal space available, in general countries should continue to focus on recurrent expenditure rationalization, further energy price reforms, increased non-oil revenues, and improved efficiency of capital spending. Fiscal consolidation should be accompanied by a further improvement in fiscal frameworks and institutions. The direction of fiscal policy in the GCC is broadly consistent with these recommendations. Policies should continue to be geared toward managing evolving liquidity situations in the banking system and supporting the private sector’s access to funding. While countries have made progress in enhancing their financial policy frameworks, strengthening liquidity forecasting and developing liquidity management instruments will help banks adjust to a tighter liquidity environment. Banks generally remain profitable, well capitalized, and liquid, but with growth expected to remain relatively weak, the monitoring of financial sector vulnerabilities should continue to be enhanced. Diversification and private sector development will be needed to offset lower government spending and ensure stronger, sustainable, and inclusive growth. This will require stepped-up reforms to improve the business climate and reduce the role of the public sector in the economy through privatization and PPPs. Reforms are needed to increase the incentives for nationals to work in the private sector and for private sector firms to hire them. Increasing female participation in the labor market and employment would benefit productivity and growth across the region. Where fiscal space is available, fiscal policy can be used to support the structural reforms needed to boost private sector growth and employment.
Keywords:
PP; price; oil price; rate; Kuwait; No GCC; federal funds rate; current account; energy price reform; U.A.E. Qatar's export; commodity price rebound; forward rate; energy price; overnight rate; private sector development; price assumption; equity price; Oil prices; Fiscal consolidation; Real interest rates; Public sector; Global