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Middle East and Central Asia > Qatar

You are looking at 1 - 6 of 6 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Intelligent Export Diversification: An Export Recommendation System with Machine Learning
Ms. Natasha X Che
This paper presents a set of collaborative filtering algorithms that produce product recommendations to diversify and optimize a country's export structure in support of sustainable long-term growth. The recommendation system is able to accurately predict the historical trends in export content and structure for high-growth countries, such as China, India, Poland, and Chile, over 20-year spans. As a contemporary case study, the system is applied to Paraguay, to create recommendations for the country's export diversification strategy.
Keywords:
WP; SITC product lists; price boom; product-space literature; country-product space; export basket; export product; KNN implementation; export diversificiation; comparative advantage; machine learning; collaborative filtering; economic growth; international trade; RCA export; export structure; diversification strategy; KNN recommender; export diversification recommendation; product name; Exports; Export diversification; Personal income; East Asia; Caribbean; Africa; Global; export diversification strategy
Cover IMF Working Papers
Debt Is Not Free
Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia
,
Mr. Paulo A Medas
,
Pranav Gupta
, and
Yuan Xiang
With public debt soaring across the world, a growing concern is whether current debt levels are a harbinger of fiscal crises, thereby restricting the policy space in a downturn. The empirical evidence to date is however inconclusive, and the true cost of debt may be overstated if interest rates remain low. To shed light into this debate, this paper re-examines the importance of public debt as a leading indicator of fiscal crises using machine learning techniques to account for complex interactions previously ignored in the literature. We find that public debt is the most important predictor of crises, showing strong non-linearities. Moreover, beyond certain debt levels, the likelihood of crises increases sharply regardless of the interest-growth differential. Our analysis also reveals that the interactions of public debt with inflation and external imbalances can be as important as debt levels. These results, while not necessarily implying causality, show governments should be wary of high public debt even when borrowing costs seem low.
Keywords:
WP; fiscal crisis; interest-growth differential; crisis threshold; crisis observation; probability of a crisis
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Perspectives: Spring/Summer 2018
IMF Research Perspective (formerly published as IMF Research Bulletin) is a new, redesigned online newsletter covering updates on IMF research. In the inaugural issue of the newsletter, Hites Ahir interviews Valeria Cerra; and they discuss the economic environment 10 years after the global financial crisis. Research Summaries cover the rise of populism; economic reform; labor and technology; big data; and the relationship between happiness and productivity. Sweta C. Saxena was the guest editor for this inaugural issue.
Keywords:
IRB; big data wave; populism; product market reform; reform agenda; rise of populism; big data innovation; Big data; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Personal income; Output gap; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper focuses on fiscal policy and financial linkages across banks in Qatar. The paper presents main stylized facts on the evolution of revenues and expenditures and the relationship with oil prices. It analyzes the evolution of the fiscal policy stance in the run-up to and after the global financial crisis. The paper also assesses the current fiscal stance in the context of the authorities’ own objective of fully financing the budget from 2020 onward from its nonhydrocarbon revenues.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; revenue; hydrocarbon revenue; Qatari bank; bank j; country authorities; Qatar banks stability index; IMF staff estimate; Commercial banks; Fiscal stance; Total expenditures; Personal income; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Institutional Quality, Knightian Uncertainty, and Insurability: A Cross-Country Analysis
Mr. S. Nuri Erbas
and
Chera L. Sayers
Knightian uncertainty (ambiguity) implies presence of uninsurable risks. Institutional quality may be a good indicator of Knightian uncertainty. This paper correlates non-life insurance penetration in 70 countries with income level, financial sector depth, country risk, a measure of cost of insurance, and the World Bank governance indexes. We find that institutional quality-transparency-uncertainty nexus is the dominant determinant of insurability across countries, surpassing the explanatory power of income level. Institutional quality, as it reflects on the level of uncertainty, is the deeper determinant of insurability. Insurability is lower when governance is weaker.
Keywords:
WP; insurance coverage; insurability; life insurance
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access?
Mr. R. G Gelos
,
Mr. Guido M Sandleris
, and
Ms. Ratna Sahay
What determines the ability of governments from developing countries to access international credit markets? We examine this question using detailed data on sovereign bond issuances and public syndicated bank loans since 1982. We find that traditional measures of a country’s links with the rest of the world (such as trade openness) and traditional liquidity and macroeconomic indicators do not help much in explaining market access. However, a country’s vulnerability to shocks and the perceived quality of its policies and institutions appear to be important determinants of its government’s ability to tap the markets. We are unable to detect strong punishment of defaulting countries by credit markets.
Keywords:
WP; market access; market perception; GDP growth; trade openness; terms of trade; Sovereign debt; international capital markets; syndicated bank loans; bond markets; developing countries; Credit; Private capital flows; Bank credit; Personal income; Global