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Middle East and Central Asia > Qatar

You are looking at 1 - 4 of 4 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models x
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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Estimating Fiscal Multiplier for Qatar: Qatar
Ken Miyajima
Econometric results suggest that Qatar’s strong capital spending multiplier became less impactful as the stock of capital rose to a high level, likely as the marginal impact declined. This supports Qatar’s strategy to shifts the State’s role to an enabler of private sector-led growth, focusing on expenditure to support build human capital and implementation of broader reform guided by the Third National Development Strategy.
Keywords:
Capital spending; fiscal multiplier; GCC; Qatar; strategy to shift; Qatar's strategy; copyright page; Qatar country dummy; allocation decision; Fiscal multipliers; Current spending; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa
Brandon Buell
,
Reda Cherif
,
Carissa Chen
,
Jiawen Tang
, and
Nils Wendt
The COVID-19 pandemic underscores the critical need for detailed, timely information on its evolving economic impacts, particularly for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where data availability and lack of generalizable nowcasting methodologies limit efforts for coordinated policy responses. This paper presents a suite of high frequency and granular country-level indicator tools that can be used to nowcast GDP and track changes in economic activity for countries in SSA. We make two main contributions: (1) demonstration of the predictive power of alternative data variables such as Google search trends and mobile payments, and (2) implementation of two types of modelling methodologies, machine learning and parametric factor models, that have flexibility to incorporate mixed-frequency data variables. We present nowcast results for 2019Q4 and 2020Q1 GDP for Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Ghana, and argue that our factor model methodology can be generalized to nowcast and forecast GDP for other SSA countries with limited data availability and shorter timeframes.
Keywords:
model prediction; quantile plot; ML model; GDP YoY; data variable; YoY percent change; Factor models; Machine learning; Time series analysis; Spot exchange rates; Mobile banking; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Lost in Transmission? The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in the GCC Countries
Mr. Serhan Cevik
and
Ms. Katerina Teksoz
This paper empirically investigates the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using a structural vector autoregressive model. The results indicate that the interest rate and bank lending channels are relatively effective in influencing non-hydrocarbon output and consumer prices, while the exchange rate channel does not appear to play an important role as a monetary transmission mechanism because of the pegged exchange rate regimes. The empirical analysis suggests that policy measures and structural reforms - strengthening financial intermediation and facilitating the development of liquid domestic capital markets - would advance the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanisms in the GCC countries.
Keywords:
WP; GCC country; interest rate; contractionary monetary policy; Monetary policy transmission; inflation; credit channel; structural VAR; monetary policy shock; exchange rate regime; GCC aggregate; GCC economy; Exchange rates; Exchange rate arrangements; Bank credit; Structural vector autoregression; Monetary transmission mechanism; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Inflation Differentials in the GCC: Does the Oil Cycle Matter?
Mr. Oral Williams
and
Mr. Kamiar Mohaddes
This paper uses a pairwise approach to investigate the main factors that have been driving inflation differentials in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region for the past two decades. The results suggest that inflation differentials in the GCC are largely influenced by the oil cycle, mainly through the credit and fiscal channels. This implies that closer coordination of fiscal policies will be key for facilitating the closer integration of the GCC economies and ahead of the move to a monetary union. The results also indicate that after controlling for cyclical factors, convergence increased even during the recent oil boom.
Keywords:
WP; inflation differential; Inflation differentials; convergence; oil prices; panel data; pairwise approach; monetary union; Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.; credit growth differential; GCC inflation rates; weight differential; GCC country; Pairwise differential; differentials in the GCC; country inflation equation; oil revenue differential; inflation gap; government expenditure growth differential; rent weight differential; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Nominal effective exchange rate; Credit; Consumer price indexes; North Africa; Europe; Asia and Pacific