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Middle East and Central Asia > Qatar

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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Estimating Fiscal Multiplier for Qatar: Qatar
Ken Miyajima
Econometric results suggest that Qatar’s strong capital spending multiplier became less impactful as the stock of capital rose to a high level, likely as the marginal impact declined. This supports Qatar’s strategy to shifts the State’s role to an enabler of private sector-led growth, focusing on expenditure to support build human capital and implementation of broader reform guided by the Third National Development Strategy.
Keywords:
Capital spending; fiscal multiplier; GCC; Qatar; strategy to shift; Qatar's strategy; copyright page; Qatar country dummy; allocation decision; Fiscal multipliers; Current spending; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
AI readiness; AI adoption; B. Qatar's progress; artificial intelligence in Qatar; innovation policy; Export diversification; Capital spending; Exports; Human capital; Global; Middle East; Eastern Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Qatar
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Growth normalization after the 2022 FIFA World Cup continued with signs of activities strengthening more recently. Fiscal and external surpluses softened mainly due to lower hydrocarbon prices. Banks are healthy but pockets of vulnerabilities remain. Reform momentum has strengthened, guided by the Third National Development Strategy (NDS3).
Keywords:
Qatar national; holdings of SDR; Qatari economy well; headline inflation; hydrocarbon price; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Public sector; Capital spending; Global
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Налоговое администрирование: основные возможности аналитики для управления комплаенс-рисками
Joshua Aslett
,
Gustavo González
,
Stuart Hamilton
, and
Miguel Pecho
В этой технической справке представлена аналитика для управления комплаенс-рисками в рамках налогового администрирования. Вместе с сопровождающим ее набором инструментов эта справка предназначена для использования в качестве стартового набора для содействия развитию потенциала в области комплаенс-планирования , оценки рисков и работы групп по сбору аналитических данных. В этой справке, разработанной в первую очередь для начинающих аналитиков, которые только приступают к работе в области налогового администрирования, представлены как теоретические, так и практические аспекты аналитики. Его инструментарий состоит из первоначального набора аналитических форм, призванных помочь реализовать представленную здесь теорию на практике в таких областях, как: 1) комплаенс-планирование; 2) составление профиля налогоплательщика; и 3) отбор кандидатов для проведения проверок.
Keywords:
налоговое администрирование; управление комплаенс-рисками; комплаенс-стратегия; анализ рисков; аналитические данные; данные; аналитика; цифровизация; информационные технологии
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Tax Administration: Essential Analytics for Compliance Risk Management
Joshua Aslett
,
Gustavo González
,
Stuart Hamilton
, and
Miguel Pecho
This technical note introduces analytics for compliance risk management in tax administration. Together with its accompanying toolkit, the note is intended as a starter kit to support capacity development in compliance planning, risk, and intelligence groups. Developed primarily for emerging analysts new to tax administration, the note presents both theory and practical aspects of analytics. Its toolkit is comprised of an initial collection of analytics templates designed to assist in turning the theory presented into practice in the areas of: (1) compliance planning; (2) taxpayer profiling; and (3) audit case selection.
Keywords:
tax administration; compliance risk management; compliance strategy; risk analysis; intelligence; data; analytics; digitalization; information technology; analytics support compliance risk management; support CRM analytics capability; CRM theory; IMF Library; data quality; Tax administration core functions; Machine learning; Value-added tax
Cover Selected Issues Papers
2022 FIFA World Cup: Economic Impact on Qatar and Regional Spillovers
Aidyn Bibolov
,
Ken Miyajima
,
Sidra Rehman
, and
Tongfang Yuan
Qatar hosted the 2022 FIFA World Cup (WC) successfully and took the opportunity to further develop its non-hydrocarbon economy. Near-term contributions to Qatar’s economy, from visitors’ spending and WC-related broadcasting revenue, of up to 1 percent of GDP was comparable to cross-country experiences. The event generated positive regional economic spillovers as a sizeable share of spectators stayed in and commuted from neighboring GCC countries. Longer-term contributions were significant—the large investment in general infrastructure ahead of the WC drove much of the non-hydrocarbon sector’s growth in the past decade. The high-quality infrastructure and global visibility brought by the WC should be leveraged to further promote diversification and achieve the National Vision 2030.
Keywords:
Economic diversification; economic transformation; Qatar; structural reform; FIFA World Cup; broadcasting revenue; Qatar's economy; WC spectator; World Cup broadcasting right; Public investment spending; Capital spending; Production growth; Spillovers; Tourism; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that Qatar’s decade-long efforts to diversify the economy culminated into the successful hosting of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Banks are well capitalized, liquid, and profitable, with the capital adequacy ratio and return on equity at 19 and 14.6 percent, respectively, in the second quarter of 2023. Banks’ nonresident deposits fell by more than one-third from the recent peak, partially replaced by higher public sector domestic deposits, reducing vulnerabilities amid tight global financial conditions. Structural reforms continue to progress, including to enhance protection and mobility of expatriate labor, improve the business environment, promote public–private partnerships, and further attract private investment through the residency program and broadened foreign ownership provisions. The pension scheme has been expanded to more Qataris in the private sector to promote private sector employment. If downside risks materialize, Qatar has strong policy buffers to mitigate the negative impact. On the upside, accelerated reform efforts guided by Third National Development Strategy could further promote diversification and boost potential growth.
Keywords:
LNG production expansion; money market rate; financial asset; IMF staff calculation; labor market dynamics; policy buffer; Fiscal stance; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Public sector; Global; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Reported Social Unrest Index: August 2023 Update
Mr. Philip Barrett
and
Euihyun Bae
This paper is the second update of the Reported Social Unrest Index (Barrett et al. 2022), outlining developments in global social unrest since March 2022. It shows that the fraction of countries experiencing major social unrest events has been stable. Reasons for social unrest can be broadly categorized as stemming from sdebate over constitutional issues, protests connected to specific policies, and other generalized disorder.
Keywords:
attempts to proxy; fraction of country; copyright page; update of the Reported Social Unrest Index; IMF surveillance; Pension spending; Machine learning; Pension reform; Stock markets; COVID-19; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Swift and decisive policy response to the Covid-19 pandemic has helped to mitigate the health and economic impact of the crisis. Fast vaccination rollout has also strengthened the economy’s resilience to new pandemic waves, paving the way for a speedy recovery. As the economy rebounds, a gradual exit from pandemic support measures is underway.
Keywords:
hydrocarbon price; CPI data; money market rate; financial asset; headline inflation; IMF's transparency policy; COVID-19; External sector statistics; Foreign assets; Global; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
How to Assess Country Risk: The Vulnerability Exercise Approach Using Machine Learning
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The IMF’s Vulnerability Exercise (VE) is a cross-country exercise that identifies country-specific near-term macroeconomic risks. As a key element of the Fund’s broader risk architecture, the VE is a bottom-up, multi-sectoral approach to risk assessments for all IMF member countries. The VE modeling toolkit is regularly updated in response to global economic developments and the latest modeling innovations. The new generation of VE models presented here leverages machine-learning algorithms. The models can better capture interactions between different parts of the economy and non-linear relationships that are not well measured in ”normal times.” The performance of machine-learning-based models is evaluated against more conventional models in a horse-race format. The paper also presents direct, transparent methods for communicating model results.
Keywords:
Risk Assessment; Supervised Machine Learning; Prediction; Sudden Stop; Exchange Market Pressure; Fiscal Crisis; Debt; Financial Crisis; Economic Crisis; Economic Growth; VE modeling toolkit; ML technique; Vulnerability Exercise approach using machine learning; IMF's Vulnerability Exercise; ML tool; crisis risk indices; Early warning systems; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Sudden stops; Banking crises; Global