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Middle East and Central Asia > Qatar

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Cover Policy Papers
The Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda, Annual Meetings 2024: Secure A Soft Landing And Break From The Low Growth–High Debt Path
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The global economy has proven resilient, and a soft landing is within reach. Inflation has moderated thanks to tight monetary policy and fading supply shocks, and growth is expected to remain steady. But uncertainty remains significant, with risks tilted to the downside; medium-term growth prospects are lackluster; public debt has reached record highs and is expected to approach 100 percent of GDP by 2030; and geoeconomic fragmentation threatens to undo decades of gains from cross-border economic integration. At the same time, transformative changes—the green transition, demographic shifts, and digitalization, including artificial intelligence—are poised to reshape the global economy, creating challenges but also opportunities. Against this background, the key policy priorities are to secure a soft landing and break from the low growth-high debt path, and address other medium-term challenges. Monetary policy should ensure inflation returns durably to the target, and fiscal policy needs to decisively pivot toward consolidation to rebuild buffers and safeguard debt sustainability. Growth-enhancing reforms are urgently needed to lift growth prospects by boosting investment, job creation, and productivity. Domestic policies must be complemented by multilateral efforts to support countries with debt vulnerabilities, protect gains from economic integration, accelerate climate action, and harness benefits of new technologies while mitigating the risks. As it has done since its founding 80 years ago, the IMF will continue to adapt to serve its members with tailored policy advice, financial lifelines when needed, and capacity development. The Fund will remain a strong advocate for multilateralism and economic integration as foundations on which to build a resilient and inclusive global economy.
Keywords:
Artificial intelligence; Capital flows; Climate change; Debt sustainability; Digitalization; Economic integration; Inflation; Growth; Reforms; Integrated Policy Framework; Poverty reduction strategy; Revenue mobilization; break from the Low Growth-High Debt Path; secure a soft landing; Policy agenda; IMF staff measure; lending toolkit; Global
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, September 2023
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development, September 2023
Keywords:
UN medium-fertility scenario; IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings; climate debt; IMF photo; Mars mission project manager; Climate change; Climate finance; Greenhouse gas emissions; Remittances; Artificial intelligence; Global; Middle East; North Africa; Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of Gray-Listing on Capital Flows: An Analysis Using Machine Learning
Mizuho Kida
and
Simon Paetzold
The Financial Action Task Force’s gray list publicly identifies countries with strategic deficiencies in their AML/CFT regimes (i.e., in their policies to prevent money laundering and the financing of terrorism). How much gray-listing affects a country’s capital flows is of interest to policy makers, investors, and the Fund. This paper estimates the magnitude of the effect using an inferential machine learning technique. It finds that gray-listing results in a large and statistically significant reduction in capital inflows.
Keywords:
capital flows; AML/CFT; gray list; machine learning; emerging market economies; inferential machine learning technique; gray-listing affect; analysis using machine learning; coefficient estimate; Capital flows; Capital inflows; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Machine learning; Foreign direct investment; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
License to Spill: How Do We Discuss Spillovers in Article IV Staff Reports
Jelle Barkema
,
Mr. Mico Mrkaic
, and
Yuanchen Yang
This paper dives into the Fund’s historical coverage of cross-border spillovers in its surveillance. We use a state-of-the-art deep learning model to analyze the discussion of spillovers in all IMF Article IV staff reports between 2010 and 2019. We find that overall, while the discussion of spillovers decreased over time, it was pronounced in the staff reports of some systemically important economies and during periods of global spillover events. Spillover discussions were more prominent in staff reports covering advanced and emerging market economies, possibly reflecting their role as sources of global spillovers. The coverage of spillovers was higher in the context of the real, financial, and external sectors. Also, countries with larger economies, higher trade and capital account openess and lower inflation are more likely to discuss spillovers in their Article IV staff reports.
Keywords:
spillover discussion; model performance; discussion of spillover; General spillover pattern; spillover event; IMF staff calculation; Spillovers; Probit models; Machine learning; Capital account; Inflation; Global
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
How to Assess Country Risk: The Vulnerability Exercise Approach Using Machine Learning
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The IMF’s Vulnerability Exercise (VE) is a cross-country exercise that identifies country-specific near-term macroeconomic risks. As a key element of the Fund’s broader risk architecture, the VE is a bottom-up, multi-sectoral approach to risk assessments for all IMF member countries. The VE modeling toolkit is regularly updated in response to global economic developments and the latest modeling innovations. The new generation of VE models presented here leverages machine-learning algorithms. The models can better capture interactions between different parts of the economy and non-linear relationships that are not well measured in ”normal times.” The performance of machine-learning-based models is evaluated against more conventional models in a horse-race format. The paper also presents direct, transparent methods for communicating model results.
Keywords:
Risk Assessment; Supervised Machine Learning; Prediction; Sudden Stop; Exchange Market Pressure; Fiscal Crisis; Debt; Financial Crisis; Economic Crisis; Economic Growth; VE modeling toolkit; ML technique; Vulnerability Exercise approach using machine learning; IMF's Vulnerability Exercise; ML tool; crisis risk indices; Early warning systems; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Sudden stops; Banking crises; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council: Trade and Foreign Investment—Keys to Diversification and Growth in the GCC
International Monetary Fund
Diversification of the GCC economies, supported by greater openness to trade and higher foreign investment, can have a large impact on growth. Such measures can support higher, sustained, and more inclusive growth by improving the allocation of resources across sectors and producers, creating jobs, triggering technology spillovers, promoting knowledge, creating a more competitive business environment, and enhancing productivity. The GCC countries are open to trade, but much less so to foreign direct investment (FDI). GCC foreign trade has been expanding robustly, but FDI inflows have stalled in recent years despite policy efforts taken to reduce administrative barriers and provide incentives to attract FDI. Tariffs are relatively low; however, a number of non-tariff barriers to trade persist and there are substantial restrictions on foreign ownership of businesses and real estate. The growth impact of closing export and FDI gaps could be significant. In most countries, the biggest boost to growth would come from closing the FDI gap—up to one percentage point increase in real non-oil per capita GDP growth. Closing export gaps could provide an additional growth dividend in the range of 0.2-0.5 percentage point. Boosting non-oil exports and attracting more FDI requires a supportive policy environment. Policy priorities are to upgrade human capital, increase productivity and competitiveness, improve the business climate, and reduce remaining barriers to foreign trade and investment. Specifically, continued reforms in the following areas will be important: • Human capital development: continue with investments made to raise educational quality to provide knowledge and skills upgrade. • Labor market reforms: aim to improve productivity and boost competitiveness of the non-oil economy. • Legal frameworks: ensure predictability and protection; efforts should include enhancing minority investor protection and dispute resolution; implementing anti-bribery and integrity measures. • Business climate reforms: focus on further liberalizing foreign ownership regulations and strengthening corporate governance; and on further reducing non-tariff trade barriers by streamlining and automating border procedures and streamlining administrative processes for issuing permits.
Keywords:
PP; GCC country; FDI inflow; GCC economy; GCC government; export gap; FDI gap; Foreign direct investment; Exports; Trade barriers; Export diversification; Business environment; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2007, Middle East and Central Asia
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2007, Middle East and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

The Middle East and Central Asia is undergoing a remarkable transformation driven by rapid GDP growth and high oil and non-oil commodity prices. The report presents common economic trends and reviews prospects and policies for the coming year in light of the global economic environment. This latest REO includes boxes treating both regional topics--such as growth in the Maghreb countries; developments in the oil markets; the boom in the GCC countries, and the impact of the recent global credit squeeze on the region--and country-specific reviews, of Kazakhstan, Armenia, Egypt, Pakistan, and the UAE.

Keywords:
REO; country authorities; country; low-income country; oil exporter; country datum; current account; broad money; State oil company; Oil; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Oil prices; Inflation; Current account surpluses; Middle East and Central Asia; Global; Maghreb; Brent crude; credit market; poverty rate; IMF staff estimate; consumer goods; heightened market volatility; market valuation; headline inflation; double digit oil GDP growth; emerging market country; federal funds rate; equity price
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access?
Mr. R. G Gelos
,
Mr. Guido M Sandleris
, and
Ms. Ratna Sahay
What determines the ability of governments from developing countries to access international credit markets? We examine this question using detailed data on sovereign bond issuances and public syndicated bank loans since 1982. We find that traditional measures of a country’s links with the rest of the world (such as trade openness) and traditional liquidity and macroeconomic indicators do not help much in explaining market access. However, a country’s vulnerability to shocks and the perceived quality of its policies and institutions appear to be important determinants of its government’s ability to tap the markets. We are unable to detect strong punishment of defaulting countries by credit markets.
Keywords:
WP; market access; market perception; GDP growth; trade openness; terms of trade; Sovereign debt; international capital markets; syndicated bank loans; bond markets; developing countries; Credit; Private capital flows; Bank credit; Personal income; Global